Picks/This weekend

This weekend

This weekend's picks

Our most confident calls, each with the reasons behind it, then any staked Value bet and the acca. Three records, kept apart and graded in public.

How they are chosen

The chance comes from the sharpest prices (Pinnacle and the Betfair Exchange) with the margin removed. Picks of the Weekend are the most likely outcomes of the weekend: one per match (a straight win when it is 70%+ likely, otherwise the stronger double chance), up to six, at most two per league and three double chances, most likely first. They are tipped even when the price is short, so we score them on how often they land against the chance we stated, and show 1u at the best UK price beside it. A Value bet is a win, draw or away single staked only when the best of 20+ UK books is 2 to 8% above fair and the average UK price is at least 1.5% below it. Full rules.

Picks of the Weekend

6 picks · our most confident calls · most likely first

Live hit ratePending3 posted; graded as each match finishes

Live, 1u at best UK pricePendingshown beside the hit rate, win or lose

Backtest, 2019 to 202684.9% vs 83.8%1,677 picks; 1u at best UK price −2.6% a pick. How we tested it

Pick of the WeekendSun 16:15 GMTSun 12:15p ETSun 16:15 GMT

Toulouse v Troyes

Ligue 1 · Double chance

Toulouse or draw 2/11 82%

Why: Toulouse out-create Troyes: 2.02 v 1.24 xG a gameToulouse out-create Troyes: 2.02 v 1.24 xG a gameToulouse out-create Troyes: 2.02 v 1.24 xG a game

Lands about 8 times in 10 on our numbers

Best UK price 1.18 BetMGM UKBetMGM UKUK book

We expect Toulouse to avoid defeat: 82% likely. The best UK price is 1.18 against a fair 1.22, so it is priced in.We expect Toulouse to avoid defeat: 82% likely. The best UK price is 1.18 against a fair 1.22, so it is priced in.We expect Toulouse to avoid defeat: 82% likely. The best UK price is 1.18 against a fair 1.22, so it is priced in.

Why we're on it →

£10 returns$10 pays10 returns£11.80$11.8011.80 BetMGM UKBetMGM UK£11.25$11.2511.25 Paddy PowerPaddy PowerUK prices for reference; US sportsbook prices differ.

Backtest: 84.9% landed vs 83.8% stated Published Sat 16:13 BSTSat 11:13a ETSat 16:13 BST

Pick of the WeekendSun 19:45 GMTSun 3:45p ETSun 19:45 GMT

Udinese v Milan

Serie A · Double chance

Milan or draw 2/9 79%

Why: Milan out-create Udinese: 1.67 v 1.15 xG a gameMilan out-create Udinese: 1.67 v 1.15 xG a gameMilan out-create Udinese: 1.67 v 1.15 xG a game

Lands about 8 times in 10 on our numbers

Best UK price 1.22 BetMGM UKBetMGM UKUK book

Backing Milan or the draw: 79% likely. The best UK price is 3.3% below fair, so there is no value edge.Backing Milan or the tie: 79% likely. The best UK price is 3.3% below fair, so there is no value edge.Backing Milan or the draw: 79% likely. The best UK price is 3.3% below fair, so there is no value edge.

Why we're on it →

£10 returns$10 pays10 returns£12.20$12.2012.20 BetMGM UKBetMGM UK£11.67$11.6711.67 Paddy PowerPaddy PowerUK prices for reference; US sportsbook prices differ.

Backtest: 84.9% landed vs 83.8% stated Published Sat 16:13 BSTSat 11:13a ETSat 16:13 BST

Pick of the WeekendSat 20:00 BSTSat 3:00p ETSat 20:00 BST

Atlético Madrid v Deportivo

La Liga · Match result

Atlético Madrid 3/10 76%

Why: Atlético Madrid: 15 points from their last fiveAtlético Madrid: 15 points from their last fiveAtlético Madrid: 15 points from their last five

Lands about 8 times in 10 on our numbers

Best UK price 1.30 William HillWilliam HillUK bookof 18 books

Atlético should win: 76% likely. Pinnacle moved from 1.24 to 1.28, and no UK price beats fair.Atlético should win: 76% likely. Pinnacle moved from 1.24 to 1.28, and no UK price beats fair.Atlético should win: 76% likely. Pinnacle moved from 1.24 to 1.28, and no UK price beats fair.

Why we're on it →

£10 returns$10 pays10 returns£13.00$13.0013.00 William HillWilliam Hill£12.86$12.8612.86 Bet365Bet365£12.80$12.8012.80 CoralCoralUK prices for reference; US sportsbook prices differ.

Backtest: 84.9% landed vs 83.8% stated Published Sat 16:13 BSTSat 11:13a ETSat 16:13 BST

Pick of the WeekendSat 15:00 BSTSat 10:00a ETSat 15:00 BST

Published after kickoff. Shown for transparency, not counted in the record.

Notts County v Stockport

League One · Double chance

Stockport or draw 1.16 83%

Why: Stockport: 13 points from their last fiveStockport: 13 points from their last fiveStockport: 13 points from their last five

Lands about 8 times in 10 on our numbers

Best UK price 1.16 BetMGM UKBetMGM UKUK book

Stockport or the draw, 83% likely. No UK price beats fair: we tip it because it is likely, not because it is cheap.Stockport or the tie, 83% likely. No UK price beats fair: we tip it because it is likely, not because it is cheap.Stockport or the draw, 83% likely. No UK price beats fair: we tip it because it is likely, not because it is cheap.

Why we're on it →

£10 returns$10 pays10 returns£11.60$11.6011.60 BetMGM UKBetMGM UK£11.25$11.2511.25 Paddy PowerPaddy PowerUK prices for reference; US sportsbook prices differ.

Backtest: 84.9% landed vs 83.8% stated Published Fri 17:04 BSTFri 12:04p ETFri 17:04 BST

Pick of the WeekendSat 15:00 BSTSat 10:00a ETSat 15:00 BST

Published after kickoff. Shown for transparency, not counted in the record.

Rangers v St Johnstone

Scottish Premiership · Match result

Rangers 2/9 80%

Why: Rangers rated 291 points strongerRangers rated 291 points strongerRangers rated 291 points stronger

Lands about 8 times in 10 on our numbers

Best UK price 1.22 Bet365Bet365UK bookof 18 books

A Rangers win: 80% likely. The best UK price is 2.6% below fair, so the call is about the chance, not the price.A Rangers win: 80% likely. The best UK price is 2.6% below fair, so the call is about the chance, not the price.A Rangers win: 80% likely. The best UK price is 2.6% below fair, so the call is about the chance, not the price.

Why we're on it →

£10 returns$10 pays10 returns£12.22$12.2212.22 Bet365Bet365£12.20$12.2012.20 CoralCoral£12.20$12.2012.20 LadbrokesLadbrokesUK prices for reference; US sportsbook prices differ.

Backtest: 84.9% landed vs 83.8% stated Published Fri 17:04 BSTFri 12:04p ETFri 17:04 BST

Pick of the WeekendSat 12:30 BSTSat 7:30a ETSat 12:30 BST

Published after kickoff. Shown for transparency, not counted in the record.

Huddersfield v Wigan

League One · Match result

Huddersfield 2/5 72%

Why: Huddersfield out-create Wigan: 2.20 v 1.39 xG a gameHuddersfield out-create Wigan: 2.20 v 1.39 xG a gameHuddersfield out-create Wigan: 2.20 v 1.39 xG a game

Lands about 7 times in 10 on our numbers

Best UK price 1.40 CoralCoralUK bookof 20 books

Huddersfield to win, 72% likely. The best UK price, 1.40, sits under our 1.41 staking minimum, so it is a Pick of the Weekend, not a Value bet.Huddersfield to win, 72% likely. The best UK price, 1.40, sits under our 1.41 staking minimum, so it is a Pick of the Weekend, not a Value bet.Huddersfield to win, 72% likely. The best UK price, 1.40, sits under our 1.41 staking minimum, so it is a Pick of the Weekend, not a Value bet.

Why we're on it →

£10 returns$10 pays10 returns£14.00$14.0014.00 CoralCoral£13.64$13.6413.64 Bet365Bet365£13.60$13.6013.60 LadbrokesLadbrokesUK prices for reference; US sportsbook prices differ.

Backtest: 84.9% landed vs 83.8% stated Published Fri 17:04 BSTFri 12:04p ETFri 17:04 BST

Value bets

1 bet · staked · scored on profit and CLV

Value betSat 15:00 BSTSat 10:00a ETSat 15:00 BST

Published after kickoff. Shown for transparency, not counted in the record.

Rotherham v Shrewsbury

League Two · Match result

Shrewsbury 9/4 1u

Why: Priced 3.5% above our fair oddsPriced 3.5% above our fair oddsPriced 3.5% above our fair odds

Our chance32%

Price implies31%

Fair 3.14 Best 3.25 Virgin BetVirgin BetUK book Edge +3.5% Worth it down to 3.21

Pinnacle has cut Shrewsbury from 3.29 to 2.94. The best UK price is still 3.25, against a fair 3.14.Pinnacle has cut Shrewsbury from 3.29 to 2.94. The best UK price is still 3.25, against a fair 3.14.Pinnacle has cut Shrewsbury from 3.29 to 2.94. The best UK price is still 3.25, against a fair 3.14.

Why we're on it →

£10 returns$10 pays10 returns£32.50$32.5032.50 Virgin BetVirgin Bet£31.00$31.0031.00 CasumoCasumo£31.00$31.0031.00 GrosvenorGrosvenorUK prices for reference; US sportsbook prices differ.

Value bets: first results after this weekend Published Fri 17:04 BSTFri 12:04p ETFri 17:04 BST

What we priced and passed on

90matches priced

450selections checked

1passed our staking rule

We priced 90 matches across 10 leagues against 20+ UK books (prices of Fri 23 Oct, 16:59:57 BSTFri Oct 23, 11:59:57 AM ETFri 23 Oct, 16:59:57 BST). One passed: Shrewsbury Town (Rotherham United v Shrewsbury Town). Everything else was priced and left alone. These came closest:

Match	Selection	Best vs fair (decimal)	Why it is not a bet
Huddersfield Town v Wigan Athletic	Huddersfield Town to win	1.40, needed 1.41	best UK price 1.40 is under the 1.41 minimum (2% above fair); moved to Picks of the Weekend (no stake)
PSV Eindhoven v Feyenoord	Feyenoord to win	3.25 vs 3.19 (+1.9%)	Eredivisie is not staked
Cagliari v Bologna	Draw	3.20 vs 3.16 (+1.3%)	best UK price 3.20 is under the 3.23 minimum (2% above fair)
Sheffield United v Derby County	Sheffield United to win	1.85 vs 1.84 (+0.4%)	best UK price 1.85 is under the 1.88 minimum (2% above fair)
St. Mirren v Dundee FC	Dundee FC to win	3.10 vs 3.10 (+0.1%)	best UK price 3.10 is under the 3.16 minimum (2% above fair)

Our rule stakes a win, draw or away single only when the best UK price is 2 to 8% above the sharp fair price and the average UK price is at least 1.5% below it. The rule · Every Premier League game, priced

Moved to Picks of the Weekend (no stake): Huddersfield Town to win (Huddersfield Town v Wigan Athletic). Under our rules it needs a UK price of at least 1.41 (fair plus 2%). The best we found was 1.40 at Coral across 20 books at Fri 16:59 UK time, so it carries no stake and is scored with the Picks of the Weekend.Under our rules it needs a UK sportsbook price of at least 1.41 (decimal, fair plus 2%). The best we found was 1.40 at Coral across 20 books at Fri 11:59 AM ET, so it carries no stake and is scored with the Picks of the Weekend.Under our rules it needs a UK price of at least 1.41 (fair plus 2%). The best we found was 1.40 at Coral across 20 books at Fri 16:59 UK time, so it carries no stake and is scored with the Picks of the Weekend.

Acca

Archive →

Most likely acca · not stakedPending

Published after kickoff. Shown for transparency, not counted in the record.

Most likely acca: 4 legs, 45% combined

A prediction, not a bet. We publish the combined chance and grade ourselves on it.A prediction, not a bet. We publish the combined chance and grade ourselves on it.A prediction, not a bet. We publish the combined chance and grade ourselves on it.

1
Stockport or draw · 83%Notts County v Stockport (League One) · Sat 15:00 BSTSat 10:00a ETSat 15:00 BSTStockport: 13 points from their last five
1.16
2
Milan or draw · 82%Udinese v Milan (Serie A) · Sun 19:45 GMTSun 3:45p ETSun 19:45 GMTMilan out-create Udinese: 1.67 v 1.15 xG a game
1.18
3
Toulouse or draw · 81%Toulouse v Troyes (Ligue 1) · Sun 16:15 GMTSun 12:15p ETSun 16:15 GMTToulouse out-create Troyes: 2.02 v 1.24 xG a game
1.18
4
Real Sociedad or draw · 81%Real Sociedad v Levante (La Liga) · Sun 17:30 GMTSun 1:30p ETSun 17:30 GMTReal Sociedad: 12 points from their last five
1.20

Combined chance45%

Not staked£10 returns £19.38$10 pays $19.3810 returns 19.38

Fair 2.21 · Best UK price 1.94 BetMGM UKBetMGM UK(UK book, for reference) Chance all 4 land: 45%. A single losing leg sinks it. published Fri 17:04 BSTFri 12:04p ETFri 17:04 BST

18+Picks are opinions, not advice, and never a sure thing. Most accas lose, because bookie margins multiply with every leg. Only stake what you can afford to lose and set a deposit limit with your bookie. Help: BeGambleAware.org or 0808 8020 133.

21+Picks are opinions, not advice, and never a sure thing. Most parlays lose, because sportsbook margins multiply with every leg. Sports betting is only legal in some states. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER, or visit ncpgambling.org.

18+Picks are opinions, not advice, and never a sure thing. Most accas lose, because bookie margins multiply with every leg. Only bet where it is legal for you and stake what you can afford to lose. Free support worldwide: GamblingTherapy.org.