Udinese v Milan
Milan to avoid defeat at Udinese, who keep losingMilan to avoid defeat at Udinese, who keep losingMilan to avoid defeat at Udinese, who keep losing
Why: Milan out-create Udinese: 1.67 v 1.15 xG a gameMilan out-create Udinese: 1.67 v 1.15 xG a gameMilan out-create Udinese: 1.67 v 1.15 xG a game
Picks of the Weekend · graded so far: 0. Losing runs stay in. Full record
Why we're on it
- Chances created and concededChances created and concededChances created and concededOn chances created and conceded, Milan average 1.67 xG for and 1.26 against a game this season; Udinese are at 1.15 and 2.16.On chances created and conceded, Milan average 1.67 xG for and 1.26 against a game this season; Udinese are at 1.15 and 2.16.On chances created and conceded, Milan average 1.67 xG for and 1.26 against a game this season; Udinese are at 1.15 and 2.16.
- Recent formRecent formRecent formMilan arrive in form (DDWDW, 9 points from five) and Udinese do not (LLLLL, 0).Milan arrive in form (DDWDW, 9 points from five) and Udinese do not (LLLLL, 0).Milan arrive in form (DDWDW, 9 points from five) and Udinese do not (LLLLL, 0).
- Strength gapStrength gapStrength gapOur results-based strength rating has Milan on 1623 and Udinese on 1438: a 185-point gap before home advantage is counted.Our results-based strength rating has Milan on 1623 and Udinese on 1438: a 185-point gap before home advantage is counted.Our results-based strength rating has Milan on 1623 and Udinese on 1438: a 185-point gap before home advantage is counted.
- The tableThe tableThe tableMilan are 4th of 20 on 15 points from 7; Udinese are 16th on 4 from 7.Milan are 4th of 20 on 15 points from 7; Udinese are 16th on 4 from 7.Milan are 4th of 20 on 15 points from 7; Udinese are 16th on 4 from 7.
- Away recordAway recordAway recordMilan have taken 6 points from 4 away games; Udinese have 1 from 4 home games. That split matters more than the overall table here.Milan have taken 6 points from 4 away games; Udinese have 1 from 4 home games. That split matters more than the overall table here.Milan have taken 6 points from 4 away games; Udinese have 1 from 4 home games. That split matters more than the overall table here.
What could go wrong
- Milan are without two key starters: Adrien Rabiot (4 league goals, 6 starts in 7) and Diego Moreira (the squad's second most valuable player, 3 league goals), and two other regular starters besides.Milan are without two key starters: Adrien Rabiot (4 league goals, 6 starts in 7) and Diego Moreira (the roster's second most valuable player, 3 league goals), and two other regular starters besides.Milan are without two key starters: Adrien Rabiot (4 league goals, 6 starts in 7) and Diego Moreira (the squad's second most valuable player, 3 league goals), and two other regular starters besides.
- Only an Udinese win, about 21% of the time on these prices. Losing runs end, often at home, and Milan's away record this season is mostly draws: won 1, drawn 3. A Milan side that does not take its chances is how this goes wrong.Only an Udinese win, about 21% of the time on these prices. Losing runs end, often at home, and Milan's away record this season is mostly ties: won 1, drawn 3. A Milan side that does not take its chances is how this goes wrong.Only an Udinese win, about 21% of the time on these prices. Losing runs end, often at home, and Milan's away record this season is mostly draws: won 1, drawn 3. A Milan side that does not take its chances is how this goes wrong.
The price
Backing Milan or the draw: 79% likely. The best UK price is 3.3% below fair, so there is no value edge.Backing Milan or the tie: 79% likely. The best UK price is 3.3% below fair, so there is no value edge.Backing Milan or the draw: 79% likely. The best UK price is 3.3% below fair, so there is no value edge.
The fair price for Milan or the draw is 1.26. The best of the 2 UK books that price double chance pays 1.22, 3.3% below fair, so there is nothing to bet. The interest is in the chance itself: at 79%, the sharp market rates an unbeaten Milan very likely to avoid defeat away to a side on a long losing run.The fair price for Milan or the tie is 1.26. The best of the 2 UK books that price double chance pays 1.22, 3.3% below fair, so there is nothing to bet. The interest is in the chance itself: at 79%, the sharp market rates an unbeaten Milan very likely to avoid defeat away to a side on a long losing run.The fair price for Milan or the draw is 1.26. The best of the 2 UK books that price double chance pays 1.22, 3.3% below fair, so there is nothing to bet. The interest is in the chance itself: at 79%, the sharp market rates an unbeaten Milan very likely to avoid defeat away to a side on a long losing run.
Prices
These are UK sportsbook prices, shown for reference; US sportsbooks price these games differently. Unstaked prediction. For information: best price across 2 UK books, checked Sat 24 Oct, 16:05:54 BSTSat Oct 24, 11:05:54 AM ETSat 24 Oct, 16:05:54 BST. Double chance is priced by only two UK books in our feeds.
| Book | Price (decimal) | £10 returns$10 pays10 returns |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM UK | 1.22 | £12.20$12.2012.20 |
| Paddy Power | 1.17 | £11.67$11.6711.67 |
| Fair price (no margin) | 1.26 |
Market move
| Sharp book | Opening (decimal) | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange | 1.25 | 1.25 | no real move |
Our chance is the average of the Pinnacle and Betfair Exchange prices with the margin removed. Fair price is one divided by that chance. Picks of the Weekend carry no stake: they are scored on how often they land against the chance we gave, with 1u at the best UK price at publication shown beside it.
The analysis
FormFormForm
Udinese have lost their last 5 league games, conceding 2.40 xG a game over that run. Milan's last 5: DDWDW. Udinese at home this season: won 0, drawn 1, lost 3, goals 2-7. Milan away: won 1, drawn 3, lost 0, goals 6-5.Udinese have lost their last 5 league games, conceding 2.40 xG a game over that run. Milan's last 5: DDWDW. Udinese at home this season: won 0, drawn 1, lost 3, goals 2-7. Milan away: won 1, drawn 3, lost 0, goals 6-5.Udinese have lost their last 5 league games, conceding 2.40 xG a game over that run. Milan's last 5: DDWDW. Udinese at home this season: won 0, drawn 1, lost 3, goals 2-7. Milan away: won 1, drawn 3, lost 0, goals 6-5.
The underlying numbersThe underlying numbersThe underlying numbers
Season xG per game: Udinese 1.15 for and 2.16 against, Milan 1.67 for and 1.26 against. The Elo gap is 185 points in Milan's favour. Milan draw often away from home this season, which is why this is a double chance.Season xG per game: Udinese 1.15 for and 2.16 against, Milan 1.67 for and 1.26 against. The Elo gap is 185 points in Milan's favour. Milan tie often away from home this season, which is why this is a double chance.Season xG per game: Udinese 1.15 for and 2.16 against, Milan 1.67 for and 1.26 against. The Elo gap is 185 points in Milan's favour. Milan draw often away from home this season, which is why this is a double chance.
Team newsInjury reportTeam news
Team news (fantacalcio.it, football-italia.net, gazzetta.it, milanreports.com, pianetamilan.it, sport.sky.it, sportsmole.co.uk): Udinese without David Alaba, Idrissa Gueye and Vakoun Bayo; doubtful: Nicolò Zaniolo. Milan without Samuel Chukwueze, Matteo Gabbia, Alexis Saelemaekers, Adrien Rabiot, Diego Moreira, Mario Gila and Filippo Terracciano.Injury report (fantacalcio.it, football-italia.net, gazzetta.it, milanreports.com, pianetamilan.it, sport.sky.it, sportsmole.co.uk): Udinese without David Alaba, Idrissa Gueye and Vakoun Bayo; doubtful: Nicolò Zaniolo. Milan without Samuel Chukwueze, Matteo Gabbia, Alexis Saelemaekers, Adrien Rabiot, Diego Moreira, Mario Gila and Filippo Terracciano.Team news (fantacalcio.it, football-italia.net, gazzetta.it, milanreports.com, pianetamilan.it, sport.sky.it, sportsmole.co.uk): Udinese without David Alaba, Idrissa Gueye and Vakoun Bayo; doubtful: Nicolò Zaniolo. Milan without Samuel Chukwueze, Matteo Gabbia, Alexis Saelemaekers, Adrien Rabiot, Diego Moreira, Mario Gila and Filippo Terracciano.
Where they standWhere they standWhere they stand
Udinese are 16th of 20 on 4 points from 7 games, with 9 scored and 16 conceded; Milan are 4th on 15 from 7, with 14 scored and 7 conceded.Udinese are 16th of 20 on 4 points from 7 games, with 9 scored and 16 conceded; Milan are 4th on 15 from 7, with 14 scored and 7 conceded.Udinese are 16th of 20 on 4 points from 7 games, with 9 scored and 16 conceded; Milan are 4th on 15 from 7, with 14 scored and 7 conceded.
Why double chance is never stakedWhy double chance is never stakedWhy double chance is never staked
Double chance is priced by very few UK books, and its margin is folded into a single number, so we cannot test it against a sharp closing price as we test straight bets. Our rule therefore never stakes it. We publish the chance because it is the most likely outcome of the match, and we grade ourselves on it.Double chance is priced by very few UK books, and its margin is folded into a single number, so we cannot test it against a sharp closing price as we test straight bets. Our rule therefore never stakes it. We publish the chance because it is the most likely outcome of the match, and we grade ourselves on it.Double chance is priced by very few UK books, and its margin is folded into a single number, so we cannot test it against a sharp closing price as we test straight bets. Our rule therefore never stakes it. We publish the chance because it is the most likely outcome of the match, and we grade ourselves on it.
The last few resultsThe last few resultsThe last few results
Udinese, most recent first: lost 0-3 at home to Lecce, lost 1-2 away at Torino, lost 0-1 at home to Cagliari, lost 3-5 away at Inter, lost 1-2 at home to Lazio. Milan, most recent first: won 3-2 at home to Atalanta, drew 1-1 away at Sassuolo, won 3-0 at home to Lecce, drew 2-2 away at Lazio, drew 1-1 away at Juventus.Udinese, most recent first: lost 0-3 at home to Lecce, lost 1-2 away at Torino, lost 0-1 at home to Cagliari, lost 3-5 away at Inter, lost 1-2 at home to Lazio. Milan, most recent first: won 3-2 at home to Atalanta, tied 1-1 away at Sassuolo, won 3-0 at home to Lecce, tied 2-2 away at Lazio, tied 1-1 away at Juventus.Udinese, most recent first: lost 0-3 at home to Lecce, lost 1-2 away at Torino, lost 0-1 at home to Cagliari, lost 3-5 away at Inter, lost 1-2 at home to Lazio. Milan, most recent first: won 3-2 at home to Atalanta, drew 1-1 away at Sassuolo, won 3-0 at home to Lecce, drew 2-2 away at Lazio, drew 1-1 away at Juventus.
Where the chance comes fromWhere the chance comes fromWhere the chance comes from
The sharp prices agree closely here (79% and 80% once the margin is removed), so the 79% we publish is their average. It is in the Picks of the Weekend, our most confident calls: no stake, scored on whether picks at this level land as often as we say, with the result at the best UK price shown beside it, profit or loss.The sharp prices agree closely here (79% and 80% once the margin is removed), so the 79% we publish is their average. It is in the Picks of the Weekend, our most confident calls: no stake, scored on whether picks at this level land as often as we say, with the result at the best UK price shown beside it, profit or loss.The sharp prices agree closely here (79% and 80% once the margin is removed), so the 79% we publish is their average. It is in the Picks of the Weekend, our most confident calls: no stake, scored on whether picks at this level land as often as we say, with the result at the best UK price shown beside it, profit or loss.
Preview build. Team news on this page was last checked Sat 24 Oct, 16:04:00 BSTSat Oct 24, 11:04:00 AM ETSat 24 Oct, 16:04:00 BST, more than 12 hours ago. It is re-checked before publication.
Prices: our price feed across 20+ UK books, Pinnacle and the Betfair Exchange, checked Sat 24 Oct, 16:05:54 BSTSat Oct 24, 11:05:54 AM ETSat 24 Oct, 16:05:54 BST. Team news cross-checked against the public sources named above, read Sat 24 Oct, 16:04:00 BSTSat Oct 24, 11:04:00 AM ETSat 24 Oct, 16:04:00 BST. Line-ups: not published yet. Form, goals, xG and the table come from our match data; the strength rating is our own, built from results only. Every number on this page maps to a saved, timestamped source file.
The numbers
How UK bookies settle this: What happens to your acca if a match is postponedHow UK sportsbooks settle this: What happens to your parlay if a match is postponedHow UK bookies settle this: What happens to your acca if a match is postponed
At most of the bookmakers we checked, a postponed match is made void and your acca settles on the remaining legs, so a treble becomes a double and the odds drop. The difference is how long the match has to be replayed in: same day at Ladbrokes, Coral and BoyleSports, 48 hours at William Hill, Unibet and Betfred, 3 days at Sky Bet and Paddy Power, and 5 days at bet365. 888sport may void a bet if the match does not start within 24 hours (each from its own rules, checked 18 to 22 Oct 2026).
| Bookmaker | Window | If the match is postponed | What happens to the acca |
|---|---|---|---|
| bet365 | 5 days | Treated as a non-runner unless played within 5 days of the original scheduled time. | bet365's Acca Boost terms say a postponed leg comes out and the boost is paid on the winning legs. Its general multiples rule was not on the pages we checked. |
| Sky Bet | Current or next 3 days | Bets stand if the match is played within the current or next 3 days and this is confirmed within 3 hours of the original kick-off. Otherwise void. | Multiples stand on the remaining selections. |
| Paddy Power | Current or next 3 days | Bets stand if the match is played within the current or next 3 days and this is confirmed within 3 hours of the original kick-off. Otherwise void. | Multiples settle on the remaining legs, so a treble becomes a double. |
| William Hill | 48 hours | Void, unless the fixture is rescheduled at the point of postponement and kicks off within 48 hours of the original kick-off. Some finals and tournaments have their own rule. | Settled on the remaining selections, so a treble becomes a double. |
| Ladbrokes | Same day | Void, unless a delayed match takes place the same day (local time at the venue). Fixed-date tournament finals have their own rule. | A void selection is treated as a non-runner and the stake runs on to the remaining selections. |
| Coral | Same day | Void, unless a delayed match takes place the same day (local time at the venue). Fixed-date tournament finals have their own rule. | A void selection is treated as a non-runner and the stake runs on to the remaining selections. |
| Unibet | 48 hours | Void if postponed or rescheduled more than 48 hours from the last scheduled time, unless stated otherwise. | Not stated on the page we checked. |
| 888sport | 24 hours (may void) | 888sport may void a bet if the match does not start within 24 hours of its official start time. Bet Builders are void unless the match is completed within 48 hours. | The cancelled match is removed and the bet stands on the remaining selections. |
| BoyleSports | Same day | Void unless played the same day. | A void selection is treated as a non-runner and the stake runs on to the remaining selections. |
| Betfred | 48 hours | Bets stand if the match is played within 48 hours of the original date and time. Otherwise void, except first goalscorer bets once the first goal is scored and half-time bets once the first half is completed. | The void leg is removed and the stake goes on the remaining selections, so a treble becomes a double. |
Source: BookieRules, from each bookie's own terms. Full rule