Rangers v St Johnstone
Rangers to beat St Johnstone: clear favourites, fairly pricedRangers to beat St Johnstone: clear favorites, fairly pricedRangers to beat St Johnstone: clear favourites, fairly priced
Why: Rangers rated 291 points strongerRangers rated 291 points strongerRangers rated 291 points stronger
Picks of the Weekend · graded so far: 0. Losing runs stay in. Full record
Why we're on it
- Strength gapStrength gapStrength gapOur results-based strength rating has Rangers on 1683 and St Johnstone on 1392: a 291-point gap before home advantage is counted.Our results-based strength rating has Rangers on 1683 and St Johnstone on 1392: a 291-point gap before home advantage is counted.Our results-based strength rating has Rangers on 1683 and St Johnstone on 1392: a 291-point gap before home advantage is counted.
- Chances created and concededChances created and concededChances created and concededRangers create more and allow less. Per game this season: 1.94 xG for and 1.10 against, where St Johnstone manage 1.27 and give up 1.45.Rangers create more and allow less. Per game this season: 1.94 xG for and 1.10 against, where St Johnstone manage 1.27 and give up 1.45.Rangers create more and allow less. Per game this season: 1.94 xG for and 1.10 against, where St Johnstone manage 1.27 and give up 1.45.
- Home recordHome recordHome recordThe venue numbers lean one way: Rangers won 3, drawn 0, lost 1 at home (6-3), St Johnstone won 1, drawn 1, lost 2 away (3-4).The venue numbers lean one way: Rangers won 3, tied 0, lost 1 at home (6-3), St Johnstone won 1, tied 1, lost 2 away (3-4).The venue numbers lean one way: Rangers won 3, drawn 0, lost 1 at home (6-3), St Johnstone won 1, drawn 1, lost 2 away (3-4).
- Recent formRecent formRecent formRangers arrive in form (WWWWD, 13 points from five) and St Johnstone do not (WLDWD, 8).Rangers arrive in form (WWWWD, 13 points from five) and St Johnstone do not (WLDWD, 8).Rangers arrive in form (WWWWD, 13 points from five) and St Johnstone do not (WLDWD, 8).
What could go wrong
- A draw or a St Johnstone win, about 20% of the time. Rangers' list of absentees is long, and an illness in the squad was reported by the manager. St Johnstone have lost only 3 of 9.A tie or a St Johnstone win, about 20% of the time. Rangers' list of absentees is long, and an illness in the roster was reported by the head coach. St Johnstone have lost only 3 of 9.A draw or a St Johnstone win, about 20% of the time. Rangers' list of absentees is long, and an illness in the squad was reported by the manager. St Johnstone have lost only 3 of 9.
The price
A Rangers win: 80% likely. The best UK price is 2.6% below fair, so the call is about the chance, not the price.A Rangers win: 80% likely. The best UK price is 2.6% below fair, so the call is about the chance, not the price.A Rangers win: 80% likely. The best UK price is 2.6% below fair, so the call is about the chance, not the price.
The sharp prices put a Rangers win at 80%, a fair price of 1.25. The best of 18 UK books is 1.22 at Bet365, 2.6% below fair, so nothing qualifies. Pinnacle has barely moved: 1.21 at the open, 1.21 now. When a short price sits this still, the market thinks it has the match right, and so do we.The sharp prices put a Rangers win at 80%, a fair price of 1.25. The best of 18 UK books is 1.22 at Bet365, 2.6% below fair, so nothing qualifies. Pinnacle has barely moved: 1.21 at the open, 1.21 now. When a short price sits this still, the market thinks it has the match right, and so do we.The sharp prices put a Rangers win at 80%, a fair price of 1.25. The best of 18 UK books is 1.22 at Bet365, 2.6% below fair, so nothing qualifies. Pinnacle has barely moved: 1.21 at the open, 1.21 now. When a short price sits this still, the market thinks it has the match right, and so do we.
Prices
These are UK sportsbook prices, shown for reference; US sportsbooks price these games differently. Unstaked prediction. For information: best price across 18 UK books, checked Fri 23 Oct, 16:59:58 BSTFri Oct 23, 11:59:58 AM ETFri 23 Oct, 16:59:58 BST.
| Book | Price (decimal) | £10 returns$10 pays10 returns |
|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 1.22 | £12.22$12.2212.22 |
| Coral | 1.22 | £12.20$12.2012.20 |
| Ladbrokes | 1.22 | £12.20$12.2012.20 |
| LeoVegas | 1.22 | £12.20$12.2012.20 |
| Betfair Exchange (after 2% commission) | 1.22 | £12.16$12.1612.16 |
| Fair price (no margin) | 1.25 |
Market move
| Sharp book | Opening (decimal) | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle | 1.21 | 1.21 | no real move |
| Betfair Exchange | 1.23 | 1.22 | no real move |
Our chance is the average of the Pinnacle and Betfair Exchange prices with the margin removed. Fair price is one divided by that chance. Picks of the Weekend carry no stake: they are scored on how often they land against the chance we gave, with 1u at the best UK price at publication shown beside it.
The analysis
Team newsInjury reportTeam news
Team news (scotsman.com, sportsmole.co.uk, stjohnstonenews.co.uk): Rangers without Cameron Devlin, Daisuke Yokota, José Cifuentes, Lawrence Shankland, Ross McCrorie and Youssef Chermiti; doubtful: Tuur Rommens and other regulars. St Johnstone without Zach Mitchell. The illness note is the thing most likely to move this late.Injury report (scotsman.com, sportsmole.co.uk, stjohnstonenews.co.uk): Rangers without Cameron Devlin, Daisuke Yokota, José Cifuentes, Lawrence Shankland, Ross McCrorie and Youssef Chermiti; doubtful: Tuur Rommens and other regulars. St Johnstone without Zach Mitchell. The illness note is the thing most likely to move this late.Team news (scotsman.com, sportsmole.co.uk, stjohnstonenews.co.uk): Rangers without Cameron Devlin, Daisuke Yokota, José Cifuentes, Lawrence Shankland, Ross McCrorie and Youssef Chermiti; doubtful: Tuur Rommens and other regulars. St Johnstone without Zach Mitchell. The illness note is the thing most likely to move this late.
FormFormForm
Rangers' last 5: WWWWD. St Johnstone's last 5: WLDWD. Rangers at home this season: won 3, drawn 0, lost 1, goals 6-3. St Johnstone away: won 1, drawn 1, lost 2, goals 3-4.Rangers' last 5: WWWWD. St Johnstone's last 5: WLDWD. Rangers at home this season: won 3, drawn 0, lost 1, goals 6-3. St Johnstone away: won 1, drawn 1, lost 2, goals 3-4.Rangers' last 5: WWWWD. St Johnstone's last 5: WLDWD. Rangers at home this season: won 3, drawn 0, lost 1, goals 6-3. St Johnstone away: won 1, drawn 1, lost 2, goals 3-4.
Where they standWhere they standWhere they stand
Rangers are 2nd of 12 on 20 points from 9 games, with 13 scored and 7 conceded; St Johnstone are 5th on 12 from 9, with 11 scored and 11 conceded. Our results-only Elo rating has Rangers on 1683 and St Johnstone on 1392, before home advantage.Rangers are 2nd of 12 on 20 points from 9 games, with 13 scored and 7 conceded; St Johnstone are 5th on 12 from 9, with 11 scored and 11 conceded. Our results-only Elo rating has Rangers on 1683 and St Johnstone on 1392, before home advantage.Rangers are 2nd of 12 on 20 points from 9 games, with 13 scored and 7 conceded; St Johnstone are 5th on 12 from 9, with 11 scored and 11 conceded. Our results-only Elo rating has Rangers on 1683 and St Johnstone on 1392, before home advantage.
The underlying numbersThe underlying numbersThe underlying numbers
Season xG per game: Rangers 1.94 for and 1.10 against, St Johnstone 1.27 for and 1.45 against.Season xG per game: Rangers 1.94 for and 1.10 against, St Johnstone 1.27 for and 1.45 against.Season xG per game: Rangers 1.94 for and 1.10 against, St Johnstone 1.27 for and 1.45 against.
What would make it a betWhat would make it a betWhat would make it a bet
For this to become a bet, a UK book would need to offer 1.29 or more, at least 2% above our fair price, but not more than 8% above it, because beyond that the sharp price is usually the stale price. The average UK price would also need to sit at least 1.5% under fair, so we know the wider market agrees with the sharp price. Today the best is 1.22.For this to become a bet, a UK sportsbook would need to offer 1.29 or more, at least 2% above our fair price, but not more than 8% above it, because beyond that the sharp price is usually the stale price. The average UK price would also need to sit at least 1.5% under fair, so we know the wider market agrees with the sharp price. Today the best is 1.22.For this to become a bet, a UK book would need to offer 1.29 or more, at least 2% above our fair price, but not more than 8% above it, because beyond that the sharp price is usually the stale price. The average UK price would also need to sit at least 1.5% under fair, so we know the wider market agrees with the sharp price. Today the best is 1.22.
The last few resultsThe last few resultsThe last few results
Rangers, most recent first: drew 2-2 away at Dundee, won 3-1 at home to Kilmarnock, won 1-0 away at Celtic, won 1-0 at home to St Mirren, won 1-0 at home to Motherwell. St Johnstone, most recent first: drew 1-1 at home to Dundee United, won 1-0 away at Aberdeen, drew 1-1 at home to Falkirk, lost 0-1 at home to Celtic, won 2-1 at home to Hibernian.Rangers, most recent first: tied 2-2 away at Dundee, won 3-1 at home to Kilmarnock, won 1-0 away at Celtic, won 1-0 at home to St Mirren, won 1-0 at home to Motherwell. St Johnstone, most recent first: tied 1-1 at home to Dundee United, won 1-0 away at Aberdeen, tied 1-1 at home to Falkirk, lost 0-1 at home to Celtic, won 2-1 at home to Hibernian.Rangers, most recent first: drew 2-2 away at Dundee, won 3-1 at home to Kilmarnock, won 1-0 away at Celtic, won 1-0 at home to St Mirren, won 1-0 at home to Motherwell. St Johnstone, most recent first: drew 1-1 at home to Dundee United, won 1-0 away at Aberdeen, drew 1-1 at home to Falkirk, lost 0-1 at home to Celtic, won 2-1 at home to Hibernian.
Where the chance comes fromWhere the chance comes fromWhere the chance comes from
The sharp prices agree closely here (79% and 81% once the margin is removed), so the 80% we publish is their average. It is in the Picks of the Weekend, our most confident calls: no stake, scored on whether picks at this level land as often as we say, with the result at the best UK price shown beside it, profit or loss.The sharp prices agree closely here (79% and 81% once the margin is removed), so the 80% we publish is their average. It is in the Picks of the Weekend, our most confident calls: no stake, scored on whether picks at this level land as often as we say, with the result at the best UK price shown beside it, profit or loss.The sharp prices agree closely here (79% and 81% once the margin is removed), so the 80% we publish is their average. It is in the Picks of the Weekend, our most confident calls: no stake, scored on whether picks at this level land as often as we say, with the result at the best UK price shown beside it, profit or loss.
Preview build. Team news on this page was last checked Fri 23 Oct, 16:20:00 BSTFri Oct 23, 11:20:00 AM ETFri 23 Oct, 16:20:00 BST, more than 12 hours ago. It is re-checked before publication.
Prices: our price feed across 20+ UK books, Pinnacle and the Betfair Exchange, checked Fri 23 Oct, 16:59:58 BSTFri Oct 23, 11:59:58 AM ETFri 23 Oct, 16:59:58 BST. Team news cross-checked against the public sources named above, read Fri 23 Oct, 16:20:00 BSTFri Oct 23, 11:20:00 AM ETFri 23 Oct, 16:20:00 BST. Line-ups: not published yet. Form, goals, xG and the table come from our match data; the strength rating is our own, built from results only. Every number on this page maps to a saved, timestamped source file.
The numbers
How UK bookies settle this: What happens to your acca if a match is postponedHow UK sportsbooks settle this: What happens to your parlay if a match is postponedHow UK bookies settle this: What happens to your acca if a match is postponed
At most of the bookmakers we checked, a postponed match is made void and your acca settles on the remaining legs, so a treble becomes a double and the odds drop. The difference is how long the match has to be replayed in: same day at Ladbrokes, Coral and BoyleSports, 48 hours at William Hill, Unibet and Betfred, 3 days at Sky Bet and Paddy Power, and 5 days at bet365. 888sport may void a bet if the match does not start within 24 hours (each from its own rules, checked 18 to 22 Oct 2026).
| Bookmaker | Window | If the match is postponed | What happens to the acca |
|---|---|---|---|
| bet365 | 5 days | Treated as a non-runner unless played within 5 days of the original scheduled time. | bet365's Acca Boost terms say a postponed leg comes out and the boost is paid on the winning legs. Its general multiples rule was not on the pages we checked. |
| Sky Bet | Current or next 3 days | Bets stand if the match is played within the current or next 3 days and this is confirmed within 3 hours of the original kick-off. Otherwise void. | Multiples stand on the remaining selections. |
| Paddy Power | Current or next 3 days | Bets stand if the match is played within the current or next 3 days and this is confirmed within 3 hours of the original kick-off. Otherwise void. | Multiples settle on the remaining legs, so a treble becomes a double. |
| William Hill | 48 hours | Void, unless the fixture is rescheduled at the point of postponement and kicks off within 48 hours of the original kick-off. Some finals and tournaments have their own rule. | Settled on the remaining selections, so a treble becomes a double. |
| Ladbrokes | Same day | Void, unless a delayed match takes place the same day (local time at the venue). Fixed-date tournament finals have their own rule. | A void selection is treated as a non-runner and the stake runs on to the remaining selections. |
| Coral | Same day | Void, unless a delayed match takes place the same day (local time at the venue). Fixed-date tournament finals have their own rule. | A void selection is treated as a non-runner and the stake runs on to the remaining selections. |
| Unibet | 48 hours | Void if postponed or rescheduled more than 48 hours from the last scheduled time, unless stated otherwise. | Not stated on the page we checked. |
| 888sport | 24 hours (may void) | 888sport may void a bet if the match does not start within 24 hours of its official start time. Bet Builders are void unless the match is completed within 48 hours. | The cancelled match is removed and the bet stands on the remaining selections. |
| BoyleSports | Same day | Void unless played the same day. | A void selection is treated as a non-runner and the stake runs on to the remaining selections. |
| Betfred | 48 hours | Bets stand if the match is played within 48 hours of the original date and time. Otherwise void, except first goalscorer bets once the first goal is scored and half-time bets once the first half is completed. | The void leg is removed and the stake goes on the remaining selections, so a treble becomes a double. |
Source: BookieRules, from each bookie's own terms. Full rule