Toulouse v Troyes
Toulouse to avoid defeat against Troyes, who arrive on a losing runToulouse to avoid defeat against Troyes, who arrive on a losing runToulouse to avoid defeat against Troyes, who arrive on a losing run
Why: Toulouse out-create Troyes: 2.02 v 1.24 xG a gameToulouse out-create Troyes: 2.02 v 1.24 xG a gameToulouse out-create Troyes: 2.02 v 1.24 xG a game
Picks of the Weekend · graded so far: 0. Losing runs stay in. Full record
Why we're on it
- Chances created and concededChances created and concededChances created and concededToulouse create more and allow less. Per game this season: 2.02 xG for and 1.41 against, where Troyes manage 1.24 and give up 1.77.Toulouse create more and allow less. Per game this season: 2.02 xG for and 1.41 against, where Troyes manage 1.24 and give up 1.77.Toulouse create more and allow less. Per game this season: 2.02 xG for and 1.41 against, where Troyes manage 1.24 and give up 1.77.
- Recent formRecent formRecent formToulouse arrive in form (LDWDW, 8 points from five) and Troyes do not (LLLLL, 0).Toulouse arrive in form (LDWDW, 8 points from five) and Troyes do not (LLLLL, 0).Toulouse arrive in form (LDWDW, 8 points from five) and Troyes do not (LLLLL, 0).
- Strength gapStrength gapStrength gapOn our strength rating the gap is 162 points (Toulouse 1505, Troyes 1343), and home advantage adds to it.On our strength rating the gap is 162 points (Toulouse 1505, Troyes 1343), and home advantage adds to it.On our strength rating the gap is 162 points (Toulouse 1505, Troyes 1343), and home advantage adds to it.
- The tableThe tableThe tableToulouse are 11th of 18 on 9 points from 7; Troyes are 17th on 4 from 7.Toulouse are 11th of 18 on 9 points from 7; Troyes are 17th on 4 from 7.Toulouse are 11th of 18 on 9 points from 7; Troyes are 17th on 4 from 7.
- Team newsTeam newsTeam newsTroyes are without two first-choice players: Anis Ouzenadji (5 starts in 7) and Yacouba Koné (4 starts in 7). The rest of their list is one player who has barely played this season. Toulouse are missing Sion Oppong (5 starts in 7) too.Troyes are without two first-choice players: Anis Ouzenadji (5 starts in 7) and Yacouba Koné (4 starts in 7). The rest of their list is one player who has barely played this season. Toulouse are missing Sion Oppong (5 starts in 7) too.Troyes are without two first-choice players: Anis Ouzenadji (5 starts in 7) and Yacouba Koné (4 starts in 7). The rest of their list is one player who has barely played this season. Toulouse are missing Sion Oppong (5 starts in 7) too.
Absences are weighted by how much each player starts and contributes (how). Our chance comes from the sharp market, which already prices in known absences, so team news explains the pick; it does not change the chance.
What could go wrong
- A Troyes win, roughly 18% of the time. Toulouse's home record is the soft spot: lost 2 of 3. Troyes have lost their last 5, but the xG says they have been a little unlucky too.A Troyes win, roughly 18% of the time. Toulouse's home record is the soft spot: lost 2 of 3. Troyes have lost their last 5, but the xG says they have been a little unlucky too.A Troyes win, roughly 18% of the time. Toulouse's home record is the soft spot: lost 2 of 3. Troyes have lost their last 5, but the xG says they have been a little unlucky too.
The price
We expect Toulouse to avoid defeat: 82% likely. The best UK price is 1.18 against a fair 1.22, so it is priced in.We expect Toulouse to avoid defeat: 82% likely. The best UK price is 1.18 against a fair 1.22, so it is priced in.We expect Toulouse to avoid defeat: 82% likely. The best UK price is 1.18 against a fair 1.22, so it is priced in.
There is no bet here and the numbers say why straight away: the fair price for Toulouse or the draw is 1.22, and the best of only 2 UK books pricing double chance pays 1.18, 3.4% below fair. The sharp market puts the chance at 82%, and that is the claim we publish and will be graded on.There is no bet here and the numbers say why straight away: the fair price for Toulouse or the tie is 1.22, and the best of only 2 UK books pricing double chance pays 1.18, 3.4% below fair. The sharp market puts the chance at 82%, and that is the claim we publish and will be graded on.There is no bet here and the numbers say why straight away: the fair price for Toulouse or the draw is 1.22, and the best of only 2 UK books pricing double chance pays 1.18, 3.4% below fair. The sharp market puts the chance at 82%, and that is the claim we publish and will be graded on.
Prices
These are UK sportsbook prices, shown for reference; US sportsbooks price these games differently. Unstaked prediction. For information: best price across 2 UK books, checked Sat 24 Oct, 16:06:11 BSTSat Oct 24, 11:06:11 AM ETSat 24 Oct, 16:06:11 BST. Double chance is priced by only two UK books in our feeds.
| Book | Price (decimal) | £10 returns$10 pays10 returns |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM UK | 1.18 | £11.80$11.8011.80 |
| Paddy Power | 1.13 | £11.25$11.2511.25 |
| Fair price (no margin) | 1.22 |
Market move
| Sharp book | Opening (decimal) | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange | 1.20 | 1.20 | no real move |
Our chance is the average of the Pinnacle and Betfair Exchange prices with the margin removed. Fair price is one divided by that chance. Picks of the Weekend carry no stake: they are scored on how often they land against the chance we gave, with 1u at the best UK price at publication shown beside it.
The analysis
Where they standWhere they standWhere they stand
Toulouse are 11th of 18 on 9 points from 7 games, with 12 scored and 11 conceded; Troyes are 17th on 4 from 7, with 5 scored and 16 conceded. Our results-only Elo rating has Toulouse on 1505 and Troyes on 1343, before home advantage.Toulouse are 11th of 18 on 9 points from 7 games, with 12 scored and 11 conceded; Troyes are 17th on 4 from 7, with 5 scored and 16 conceded. Our results-only Elo rating has Toulouse on 1505 and Troyes on 1343, before home advantage.Toulouse are 11th of 18 on 9 points from 7 games, with 12 scored and 11 conceded; Troyes are 17th on 4 from 7, with 5 scored and 16 conceded. Our results-only Elo rating has Toulouse on 1505 and Troyes on 1343, before home advantage.
The underlying numbersThe underlying numbersThe underlying numbers
Season xG per game: Toulouse 2.02 for and 1.41 against, Troyes 1.24 for and 1.77 against. Toulouse create a lot more than they have scored from, which the market weighs more than the table.Season xG per game: Toulouse 2.02 for and 1.41 against, Troyes 1.24 for and 1.77 against. Toulouse create a lot more than they have scored from, which the market weighs more than the standings.Season xG per game: Toulouse 2.02 for and 1.41 against, Troyes 1.24 for and 1.77 against. Toulouse create a lot more than they have scored from, which the market weighs more than the table.
Home and awayHome and awayHome and away
Toulouse at home this season: won 1, drawn 0, lost 2, goals 3-5. Troyes away: won 1, drawn 0, lost 2, goals 2-5. Toulouse have lost more than they have won at home, which is the main reason this is a double chance.Toulouse at home this season: won 1, drawn 0, lost 2, goals 3-5. Troyes away: won 1, drawn 0, lost 2, goals 2-5. Toulouse have lost more than they have won at home, which is the main reason this is a double chance.Toulouse at home this season: won 1, drawn 0, lost 2, goals 3-5. Troyes away: won 1, drawn 0, lost 2, goals 2-5. Toulouse have lost more than they have won at home, which is the main reason this is a double chance.
Team newsInjury reportTeam news
Team news (goal.com, lineupstoday.com, onefootball.com, sport.fr, sportsmole.co.uk, wip-madeinfoot.ouest-france.fr): Toulouse without Sion Oppong and Mathys Niflore. Troyes without Anis Ouzenadji, Yacouba Koné and Yvann Titi; doubtful: Ismael Boura and Paolo Gozzi.Injury report (goal.com, lineupstoday.com, onefootball.com, sport.fr, sportsmole.co.uk, wip-madeinfoot.ouest-france.fr): Toulouse without Sion Oppong and Mathys Niflore. Troyes without Anis Ouzenadji, Yacouba Koné and Yvann Titi; doubtful: Ismael Boura and Paolo Gozzi.Team news (goal.com, lineupstoday.com, onefootball.com, sport.fr, sportsmole.co.uk, wip-madeinfoot.ouest-france.fr): Toulouse without Sion Oppong and Mathys Niflore. Troyes without Anis Ouzenadji, Yacouba Koné and Yvann Titi; doubtful: Ismael Boura and Paolo Gozzi.
The last few resultsThe last few resultsThe last few results
Toulouse, most recent first: won 3-0 away at Le Mans, drew 2-2 away at Monaco, won 3-2 at home to Le Havre, drew 2-2 away at Lorient, lost 0-1 at home to Lille. Troyes, most recent first: lost 1-3 at home to Lens, lost 0-2 at home to Marseille, lost 0-2 away at Angers, lost 0-2 away at Lille, lost 2-6 at home to Strasbourg.Toulouse, most recent first: won 3-0 away at Le Mans, tied 2-2 away at Monaco, won 3-2 at home to Le Havre, tied 2-2 away at Lorient, lost 0-1 at home to Lille. Troyes, most recent first: lost 1-3 at home to Lens, lost 0-2 at home to Marseille, lost 0-2 away at Angers, lost 0-2 away at Lille, lost 2-6 at home to Strasbourg.Toulouse, most recent first: won 3-0 away at Le Mans, drew 2-2 away at Monaco, won 3-2 at home to Le Havre, drew 2-2 away at Lorient, lost 0-1 at home to Lille. Troyes, most recent first: lost 1-3 at home to Lens, lost 0-2 at home to Marseille, lost 0-2 away at Angers, lost 0-2 away at Lille, lost 2-6 at home to Strasbourg.
Why double chance is never stakedWhy double chance is never stakedWhy double chance is never staked
Double chance is priced by very few UK books, and its margin is folded into a single number, so we cannot test it against a sharp closing price as we test straight bets. Our rule therefore never stakes it. We publish the chance because it is the most likely outcome of the match, and we grade ourselves on it.Double chance is priced by very few UK books, and its margin is folded into a single number, so we cannot test it against a sharp closing price as we test straight bets. Our rule therefore never stakes it. We publish the chance because it is the most likely outcome of the match, and we grade ourselves on it.Double chance is priced by very few UK books, and its margin is folded into a single number, so we cannot test it against a sharp closing price as we test straight bets. Our rule therefore never stakes it. We publish the chance because it is the most likely outcome of the match, and we grade ourselves on it.
Where the chance comes fromWhere the chance comes fromWhere the chance comes from
Pinnacle, margin removed, has this at 81%; the Betfair Exchange has 83%. The published chance is their average, 82%. It is in the Picks of the Weekend, our most confident calls: no stake, scored on whether picks at this level land as often as we say, with the result at the best UK price shown beside it, profit or loss.Pinnacle, margin removed, has this at 81%; the Betfair Exchange has 83%. The published chance is their average, 82%. It is in the Picks of the Weekend, our most confident calls: no stake, scored on whether picks at this level land as often as we say, with the result at the best UK price shown beside it, profit or loss.Pinnacle, margin removed, has this at 81%; the Betfair Exchange has 83%. The published chance is their average, 82%. It is in the Picks of the Weekend, our most confident calls: no stake, scored on whether picks at this level land as often as we say, with the result at the best UK price shown beside it, profit or loss.
Preview build. Team news on this page was last checked Sat 24 Oct, 16:04:00 BSTSat Oct 24, 11:04:00 AM ETSat 24 Oct, 16:04:00 BST, more than 12 hours ago. It is re-checked before publication.
Prices: our price feed across 20+ UK books, Pinnacle and the Betfair Exchange, checked Sat 24 Oct, 16:06:11 BSTSat Oct 24, 11:06:11 AM ETSat 24 Oct, 16:06:11 BST. Team news cross-checked against the public sources named above, read Sat 24 Oct, 16:04:00 BSTSat Oct 24, 11:04:00 AM ETSat 24 Oct, 16:04:00 BST. Line-ups: not published yet. Form, goals, xG and the table come from our match data; the strength rating is our own, built from results only. Every number on this page maps to a saved, timestamped source file.
The numbers
How UK bookies settle this: What happens to your acca if a match is postponedHow UK sportsbooks settle this: What happens to your parlay if a match is postponedHow UK bookies settle this: What happens to your acca if a match is postponed
At most of the bookmakers we checked, a postponed match is made void and your acca settles on the remaining legs, so a treble becomes a double and the odds drop. The difference is how long the match has to be replayed in: same day at Ladbrokes, Coral and BoyleSports, 48 hours at William Hill, Unibet and Betfred, 3 days at Sky Bet and Paddy Power, and 5 days at bet365. 888sport may void a bet if the match does not start within 24 hours (each from its own rules, checked 18 to 22 Oct 2026).
| Bookmaker | Window | If the match is postponed | What happens to the acca |
|---|---|---|---|
| bet365 | 5 days | Treated as a non-runner unless played within 5 days of the original scheduled time. | bet365's Acca Boost terms say a postponed leg comes out and the boost is paid on the winning legs. Its general multiples rule was not on the pages we checked. |
| Sky Bet | Current or next 3 days | Bets stand if the match is played within the current or next 3 days and this is confirmed within 3 hours of the original kick-off. Otherwise void. | Multiples stand on the remaining selections. |
| Paddy Power | Current or next 3 days | Bets stand if the match is played within the current or next 3 days and this is confirmed within 3 hours of the original kick-off. Otherwise void. | Multiples settle on the remaining legs, so a treble becomes a double. |
| William Hill | 48 hours | Void, unless the fixture is rescheduled at the point of postponement and kicks off within 48 hours of the original kick-off. Some finals and tournaments have their own rule. | Settled on the remaining selections, so a treble becomes a double. |
| Ladbrokes | Same day | Void, unless a delayed match takes place the same day (local time at the venue). Fixed-date tournament finals have their own rule. | A void selection is treated as a non-runner and the stake runs on to the remaining selections. |
| Coral | Same day | Void, unless a delayed match takes place the same day (local time at the venue). Fixed-date tournament finals have their own rule. | A void selection is treated as a non-runner and the stake runs on to the remaining selections. |
| Unibet | 48 hours | Void if postponed or rescheduled more than 48 hours from the last scheduled time, unless stated otherwise. | Not stated on the page we checked. |
| 888sport | 24 hours (may void) | 888sport may void a bet if the match does not start within 24 hours of its official start time. Bet Builders are void unless the match is completed within 48 hours. | The cancelled match is removed and the bet stands on the remaining selections. |
| BoyleSports | Same day | Void unless played the same day. | A void selection is treated as a non-runner and the stake runs on to the remaining selections. |
| Betfred | 48 hours | Bets stand if the match is played within 48 hours of the original date and time. Otherwise void, except first goalscorer bets once the first goal is scored and half-time bets once the first half is completed. | The void leg is removed and the stake goes on the remaining selections, so a treble becomes a double. |
Source: BookieRules, from each bookie's own terms. Full rule