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Picks/Value bets
Value bets · staked · scored on profit and CLV

Value bets

Win, draw or away singles at a 30%+ chance where the best UK price is 2 to 8% above the fair price from the sharp market, and the average UK price is at least 1.5% below it. 1u in the EFL, 0.5u in the top leagues. Scored on profit and closing line value, kept apart from the Picks of the Weekend. Newest first.

Higher risk. A value bet can be a 32% chance at a price that pays as if it were 30%. Most will lose; the idea only works over a long run of bets, and the record will show whether it does.
Value betSat 15:00 BSTSat 10:00a ETSat 15:00 BST
Published after kickoff. Shown for transparency, not counted in the record.

Rotherham v Shrewsbury

League Two · Match result
Shrewsbury 9/4 1u

Why: Priced 3.5% above our fair oddsPriced 3.5% above our fair oddsPriced 3.5% above our fair odds

Our chance32%
Price implies31%
Fair 3.14 Best 3.25 Virgin BetVirgin BetUK book Edge +3.5% Worth it down to 3.21

Pinnacle has cut Shrewsbury from 3.29 to 2.94. The best UK price is still 3.25, against a fair 3.14.Pinnacle has cut Shrewsbury from 3.29 to 2.94. The best UK price is still 3.25, against a fair 3.14.Pinnacle has cut Shrewsbury from 3.29 to 2.94. The best UK price is still 3.25, against a fair 3.14.

Why we're on it →
£10 returns$10 pays10 returns£32.50$32.5032.50 Virgin BetVirgin Bet£31.00$31.0031.00 CasumoCasumo£31.00$31.0031.00 GrosvenorGrosvenorUK prices for reference; US sportsbook prices differ.
Value bets: first results after this weekend Published Fri 17:04 BSTFri 12:04p ETFri 17:04 BST
18+Picks are opinions, not advice, and never a sure thing. Most accas lose, because bookie margins multiply with every leg. Only stake what you can afford to lose and set a deposit limit with your bookie. Help: BeGambleAware.org or 0808 8020 133.
21+Picks are opinions, not advice, and never a sure thing. Most parlays lose, because sportsbook margins multiply with every leg. Sports betting is only legal in some states. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER, or visit ncpgambling.org.
18+Picks are opinions, not advice, and never a sure thing. Most accas lose, because bookie margins multiply with every leg. Only bet where it is legal for you and stake what you can afford to lose. Free support worldwide: GamblingTherapy.org.