How we pick

Picks section

A simple goals model gives us a fair price for each big game. We pick where the model and our reading of form and team news agree, then write a few plain lines on why. Accas and bet builders are put together the same way, leg by leg.

Honest expectation: Premier League and Champions League prices are very efficient, and accas multiply the bookie's margin with every leg. Over time, expect these picks to lose a little, like most betting. The record will show it either way.

Posting rules

1. Every pick is recorded before kick-off with the exact time, the price and the bookie where that price was available.
2. Stakes are in units. 1u is a normal stake, accas and bet builders are usually half a unit.
3. Every pick is also saved in our code repository, so the history carries its own timestamps.

Settlement

• We settle by the rules of the bookie whose price we took, including void legs and non-starters.
• We record the closing price and closing line value (CLV) for every pick.
• Nothing is deleted. If we correct a result, the old value stays in the record with the date of the change.

Win claims

We only mention a win if it is in the record from before kick-off, and we always show the full record next to it.

The Edge section has its own, stricter method.