Edge method

How picks are made

• A goals model built on historical results and match data for English and Scottish leagues produces a fair price for over/under and both-teams-to-score markets.
• We only post when the available price is meaningfully above our fair price, and only at a price that is really available at the time we post.
• The model was backtested against historical closing prices first. It only goes live if the backtest beats the close.

How they are graded

• Every pick is posted at least 2 hours before kick-off, with the time, the price and where the price was available.
• After kick-off we record the closing price from a sharp market and compute CLV: our price divided by the closing price, minus one.
• Results are settled to level stakes in units. Nothing is deleted. Corrections are logged with the old value.

Where it stands

First test, October 2026: on 121 out-of-sample bets the model's prices were on average 2.3% worse than the closing price, so it has not earned a place. We will publish the next test here, pass or fail.

When we would stop

If average CLV is zero or below after about 150 live picks, the model has no edge and we will say so on this page.

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