A few good bets on the Premier League, an acca with a bit of a kick, and a reason you can read in ten seconds. Logged before kick-off, settled in public, losers and all.
International edition: decimal odds by default, and no bookie offers.
Our strongest calls by model probability, across leagues. Not longshots.
Four high-probability legs, with the honest chance of all four landing.
Prices we think beat fair value. Higher risk, lower hit rate, judged over the long run.
Our view is the draw at 18/5. Everton have drawn four of their last six and lost only one. Arsenal win a lot but by small margins: 8 goals in six games, all five wins by one or two goals. The sharp market puts the draw at about 22%; at 18/5 the price is a little better than that.
Our pick is the draw at 11/4. Coventry have scored 6 in their last six and Fulham 5. Our model has this as close to a coin flip between the sides, and a draw at about 27%. The sharp market agrees at about 27%, and 11/4 is the best UK price we found.
Our view is that Spurs at 7/2 is a fair price or a touch better. Chelsea have scored 14 in their last six but conceded 11 and allowed 5.8 shots on target a game. Spurs have lost only two of their last six and give up 3.0 shots on target a game. The sharp market makes Spurs about a 22% chance and our model about 27%, so the price is on our side.
Our pick is Brighton at 12/5. They've won four of their last five, scoring 15 and conceding none in those wins, and average 6.0 shots on target a game. Liverpool have been solid but not free-scoring: 7 goals in their last six. The market makes Brighton about a 30% chance; we make it higher.
This weekend's acca and last week's full record, every Friday morning. No bookie offers in the email.