EDGE · MODEL PICKS
Fewer picks. Judged on the closing price.
Model-led singles in the Championship, League One, League Two and the Scottish Premiership, mostly goals markets. No accas and no hype. Each pick is graded on whether we beat the final price (closing line value, or CLV), which shows real edge long before profit does.
Avg CLVn/a
Beat the closen/a
Graded0
Profitn/a
This week
Decimal odds · fair = model price · edge = taken ÷ fair − 1Edge is on hold. We tested our first goals model on three seasons it had never seen (2023-24 to 2025-26). It did not beat the closing price, so we won't post its picks. Edge opens when a method beats the close in testing, then runs privately until about 100 picks are graded before going public, losers included.Read the test →
Closing line value, every pick
No Edge picks graded yet. Each pick gets a bar here once the market closes.
Pick 1Lime = beat the close · red = didn'tPick 1
If we take 11/10 and it closes at 19/20, we beat the close by 7.7%. Over a few hundred picks that's the best evidence of skill there is. Results over a few dozen picks are mostly noise, and we say so.
Method
- 01Price every matchA goals model built on results and match data, tested on three seasons it had never seen.
- 02Bet only clear gapsOnly when the price on offer is meaningfully above our fair price, and only at a price that is really available.
- 03Grade on the closeEvery pick is logged with a timestamp, then compared with a sharp closing price.
18+Picks are opinions, not advice, and never a sure thing. Most accas lose, because bookie margins multiply with every leg. Only stake what you can afford to lose and set a deposit limit with your bookie. Help: BeGambleAware.org or 0808 8020 133.
21+Picks are opinions, not advice, and never a sure thing. Most parlays lose, because sportsbook margins multiply with every leg. Sports betting is only legal in some states. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER, or visit ncpgambling.org.
18+Picks are opinions, not advice, and never a sure thing. Most accas lose, because bookie margins multiply with every leg. Only bet where it is legal for you and stake what you can afford to lose. Free support worldwide: GamblingTherapy.org.