Rotherham v Shrewsbury
The sharp money moved to Shrewsbury and a UK price stayed behindThe sharp money moved to Shrewsbury and a UK price stayed behindThe sharp money moved to Shrewsbury and a UK price stayed behind
Why: Priced 3.5% above our fair oddsPriced 3.5% above our fair oddsPriced 3.5% above our fair odds
Value bets · this month: 0 bets, 0.0u · all time: 0 bets, 0.0u, yield pending, CLV pending. Losing runs stay in. Full record
Why we're on it
- The priceThe priceThe priceThe best UK price, 3.25, is 3.5% above our fair price of 3.14, inside the 2 to 8% band where our backtest found the edge holds.The best UK price, 3.25, is 3.5% above our fair price of 3.14, inside the 2 to 8% band where our backtest found the edge holds.The best UK price, 3.25, is 3.5% above our fair price of 3.14, inside the 2 to 8% band where our backtest found the edge holds.
- The sharp marketThe sharp marketThe sharp marketMoney has come for it: Pinnacle opened at 3.29 and is 2.94 now, so the sharpest book has moved toward this result since the market opened.Money has come for it: Pinnacle opened at 3.29 and is 2.94 now, so the sharpest book has moved toward this result since the market opened.Money has come for it: Pinnacle opened at 3.29 and is 2.94 now, so the sharpest book has moved toward this result since the market opened.
- Recent formRecent formRecent formOver the last five league games Shrewsbury have won 3, drawn 1, lost 1; Rotherham have won 0, drawn 2, lost 3, with 10 goals conceded.Over the last five league games Shrewsbury have won 3, tied 1, lost 1; Rotherham have won 0, tied 2, lost 3, with 10 goals conceded.Over the last five league games Shrewsbury have won 3, drawn 1, lost 1; Rotherham have won 0, drawn 2, lost 3, with 10 goals conceded.
- The tableThe tableThe tableShrewsbury are 8th of 24 on 17 points from 12; Rotherham are 22nd on 11 from 12.Shrewsbury are 8th of 24 on 17 points from 12; Rotherham are 22nd on 11 from 12.Shrewsbury are 8th of 24 on 17 points from 12; Rotherham are 22nd on 11 from 12.
- Chances created and concededChances created and concededChances created and concededOn chances created and conceded, Shrewsbury average 1.36 xG for and 0.94 against a game this season; Rotherham are at 1.36 and 1.33.On chances created and conceded, Shrewsbury average 1.36 xG for and 0.94 against a game this season; Rotherham are at 1.36 and 1.33.On chances created and conceded, Shrewsbury average 1.36 xG for and 0.94 against a game this season; Rotherham are at 1.36 and 1.33.
What could go wrong
- Shrewsbury are without a key starter, Luca Hoole (10 starts in 12), and two other regular starters besides.Shrewsbury are without a key starter, Luca Hoole (10 starts in 12), and two other regular starters besides.Shrewsbury are without a key starter, Luca Hoole (10 starts in 12), and two other regular starters besides.
- Most likely, a Rotherham result: home win or draw is the 68% side of this. Rotherham have drawn 4 of 6 at home, and a draw beats this bet. The move itself can also be wrong: a sharp line is right on average, not every Saturday. And if the best UK price falls under 3.21 before you bet, the edge is gone; skip it.Most likely, a Rotherham result: home win or tie is the 68% side of this. Rotherham have drawn 4 of 6 at home, and a tie beats this bet. The move itself can also be wrong: a sharp line is right on average, not every Saturday. And if the best UK price falls under 3.21 before you bet, the edge is gone; skip it.Most likely, a Rotherham result: home win or draw is the 68% side of this. Rotherham have drawn 4 of 6 at home, and a draw beats this bet. The move itself can also be wrong: a sharp line is right on average, not every Saturday. And if the best UK price falls under 3.21 before you bet, the edge is gone; skip it.
The price
Pinnacle has cut Shrewsbury from 3.29 to 2.94. The best UK price is still 3.25, against a fair 3.14.Pinnacle has cut Shrewsbury from 3.29 to 2.94. The best UK price is still 3.25, against a fair 3.14.Pinnacle has cut Shrewsbury from 3.29 to 2.94. The best UK price is still 3.25, against a fair 3.14.
Pinnacle opened Shrewsbury at 3.29 and has since cut them to 2.94, a 10.6% move towards this bet. Virgin Bet still offer 3.25. Strip the margin out of Pinnacle and the Betfair Exchange and the fair price is 3.14, so that price is 3.5% above fair, inside the band where our rule stakes a single. The average across the 20 UK books we checked is 2.97, 5.3% below fair, which is what we want to see: the market as a whole agrees with the sharp price, and a single book has not caught up.Pinnacle opened Shrewsbury at 3.29 and has since cut them to 2.94, a 10.6% move towards this bet. Virgin Bet still offer 3.25. Strip the margin out of Pinnacle and the Betfair Exchange and the fair price is 3.14, so that price is 3.5% above fair, inside the band where our rule stakes a single. The average across the 20 UK books we checked is 2.97, 5.3% below fair, which is what we want to see: the market as a whole agrees with the sharp price, and a single book has not caught up.Pinnacle opened Shrewsbury at 3.29 and has since cut them to 2.94, a 10.6% move towards this bet. Virgin Bet still offer 3.25. Strip the margin out of Pinnacle and the Betfair Exchange and the fair price is 3.14, so that price is 3.5% above fair, inside the band where our rule stakes a single. The average across the 20 UK books we checked is 2.97, 5.3% below fair, which is what we want to see: the market as a whole agrees with the sharp price, and a single book has not caught up.
Prices
These are UK sportsbook prices, shown for reference; US sportsbooks price these games differently. Best price we found across 20 UK books, checked Fri 23 Oct, 16:59:57 BSTFri Oct 23, 11:59:57 AM ETFri 23 Oct, 16:59:57 BST.
| Book | Price (decimal) | £10 returns$10 pays10 returns |
|---|---|---|
| Virgin Bet | 3.25 | £32.50$32.5032.50 |
| Casumo | 3.10 | £31.00$31.0031.00 |
| Grosvenor | 3.10 | £31.00$31.0031.00 |
| LiveScore Bet | 3.10 | £31.00$31.0031.00 |
| Betfair Exchange (after 2% commission) | 3.11 | £31.07$31.0731.07 |
| Fair price (no margin) | 3.14 |
Market move
| Sharp book | Opening (decimal) | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle | 3.29 | 2.94 | shortened (−10.6%) |
Our chance is the average of the Pinnacle and Betfair Exchange prices with the margin removed. Fair price is one divided by that chance. A single is staked only when the best UK price is 2 to 8% above fair and the average UK price is at least 1.5% below it.
The analysis
Why the market movedWhy the market movedWhy the market moved
Shrewsbury arrive in better shape than their opening price suggested. They have won 3 of their last 5 league games (DWLWW), while Rotherham are without a win in their last 5 (DLLLD). Over that run Rotherham have created 0.89 xG a game against Shrewsbury's 1.53. A sharp line moves when the bettors it respects all lean the same way. It moved here, and the best UK price lags it.Shrewsbury arrive in better shape than their opening price suggested. They have won 3 of their last 5 league games (DWLWW), while Rotherham are without a win in their last 5 (DLLLD). Over that run Rotherham have created 0.89 xG a game against Shrewsbury's 1.53. A sharp line moves when the bettors it respects all lean the same way. It moved here, and the best UK price lags it.Shrewsbury arrive in better shape than their opening price suggested. They have won 3 of their last 5 league games (DWLWW), while Rotherham are without a win in their last 5 (DLLLD). Over that run Rotherham have created 0.89 xG a game against Shrewsbury's 1.53. A sharp line moves when the bettors it respects all lean the same way. It moved here, and the best UK price lags it.
Team newsInjury reportTeam news
Team news (rotherhamadvertiser.co.uk, shrewsburytown.com, vitalfootball.co.uk, whoscored.com): Rotherham without George Sebine, Ewan Otoo, Fabio Tavares, Marvin Kaleta and Ossama Ashley. Shrewsbury without Jay Turner-Cooke, Isaac Fletcher and Luca Hoole; doubtful: Jack Price. The Shrewsbury absences are suspensions, and the sharp price was set with that list public.Injury report (rotherhamadvertiser.co.uk, shrewsburytown.com, vitalfootball.co.uk, whoscored.com): Rotherham without George Sebine, Ewan Otoo, Fabio Tavares, Marvin Kaleta and Ossama Ashley. Shrewsbury without Jay Turner-Cooke, Isaac Fletcher and Luca Hoole; doubtful: Jack Price. The Shrewsbury absences are suspensions, and the sharp price was set with that list public.Team news (rotherhamadvertiser.co.uk, shrewsburytown.com, vitalfootball.co.uk, whoscored.com): Rotherham without George Sebine, Ewan Otoo, Fabio Tavares, Marvin Kaleta and Ossama Ashley. Shrewsbury without Jay Turner-Cooke, Isaac Fletcher and Luca Hoole; doubtful: Jack Price. The Shrewsbury absences are suspensions, and the sharp price was set with that list public.
Where they standWhere they standWhere they stand
Rotherham are 22nd of 24 on 11 points from 12 games, with 14 scored and 20 conceded; Shrewsbury are 8th on 17 from 12, with 13 scored and 17 conceded. Our results-only Elo rating has Rotherham on 1343 and Shrewsbury on 1343, before home advantage. On Elo alone the sides are level, and home advantage would tip it to Rotherham. The sharp price says the recent form matters more.Rotherham are 22nd of 24 on 11 points from 12 games, with 14 scored and 20 conceded; Shrewsbury are 8th on 17 from 12, with 13 scored and 17 conceded. Our results-only Elo rating has Rotherham on 1343 and Shrewsbury on 1343, before home advantage. On Elo alone the sides are level, and home advantage would tip it to Rotherham. The sharp price says the recent form matters more.Rotherham are 22nd of 24 on 11 points from 12 games, with 14 scored and 20 conceded; Shrewsbury are 8th on 17 from 12, with 13 scored and 17 conceded. Our results-only Elo rating has Rotherham on 1343 and Shrewsbury on 1343, before home advantage. On Elo alone the sides are level, and home advantage would tip it to Rotherham. The sharp price says the recent form matters more.
Home and awayHome and awayHome and away
Rotherham at home this season: won 1, drawn 4, lost 1, goals 10-12. Shrewsbury away: won 2, drawn 1, lost 3, goals 6-11. Rotherham draw a lot at home, and that matters for a straight away bet: a draw loses it just as surely as a home win.Rotherham at home this season: won 1, drawn 4, lost 1, goals 10-12. Shrewsbury away: won 2, drawn 1, lost 3, goals 6-11. Rotherham tie a lot at home, and that matters for a straight away bet: a tie loses it just as surely as a home win.Rotherham at home this season: won 1, drawn 4, lost 1, goals 10-12. Shrewsbury away: won 2, drawn 1, lost 3, goals 6-11. Rotherham draw a lot at home, and that matters for a straight away bet: a draw loses it just as surely as a home win.
The underlying numbersThe underlying numbersThe underlying numbers
Season xG per game: Rotherham 1.36 for and 1.33 against, Shrewsbury 1.36 for and 0.94 against. Shrewsbury concede chances at a far lower rate than Rotherham over the season, which supports the move.Season xG per game: Rotherham 1.36 for and 1.33 against, Shrewsbury 1.36 for and 0.94 against. Shrewsbury concede chances at a far lower rate than Rotherham over the season, which supports the move.Season xG per game: Rotherham 1.36 for and 1.33 against, Shrewsbury 1.36 for and 0.94 against. Shrewsbury concede chances at a far lower rate than Rotherham over the season, which supports the move.
The last few resultsThe last few resultsThe last few results
Rotherham, most recent first: drew 2-2 at home to Newport County, lost 0-2 away at Fleetwood Town, lost 1-4 at home to Gillingham, lost 0-1 away at Exeter, drew 1-1 at home to Crewe. Shrewsbury, most recent first: won 3-2 away at Crawley Town, won 1-0 at home to Bristol Rvs, lost 0-1 at home to Exeter, won 2-1 away at Grimsby, drew 2-2 at home to Colchester.Rotherham, most recent first: tied 2-2 at home to Newport County, lost 0-2 away at Fleetwood Town, lost 1-4 at home to Gillingham, lost 0-1 away at Exeter, tied 1-1 at home to Crewe. Shrewsbury, most recent first: won 3-2 away at Crawley Town, won 1-0 at home to Bristol Rvs, lost 0-1 at home to Exeter, won 2-1 away at Grimsby, tied 2-2 at home to Colchester.Rotherham, most recent first: drew 2-2 at home to Newport County, lost 0-2 away at Fleetwood Town, lost 1-4 at home to Gillingham, lost 0-1 away at Exeter, drew 1-1 at home to Crewe. Shrewsbury, most recent first: won 3-2 away at Crawley Town, won 1-0 at home to Bristol Rvs, lost 0-1 at home to Exeter, won 2-1 away at Grimsby, drew 2-2 at home to Colchester.
The bottom lineThe bottom lineThe bottom line
This is a price call, not a prediction that Shrewsbury win. At 32% they lose more often than not. The bet is worth taking down to 3.21; below that the edge is under our minimum and we would pass.This is a price call, not a prediction that Shrewsbury win. At 32% they lose more often than not. The bet is worth taking down to 3.21; below that the edge is under our minimum and we would pass.This is a price call, not a prediction that Shrewsbury win. At 32% they lose more often than not. The bet is worth taking down to 3.21; below that the edge is under our minimum and we would pass.
Preview build. Team news on this page was last checked Fri 23 Oct, 16:55:00 BSTFri Oct 23, 11:55:00 AM ETFri 23 Oct, 16:55:00 BST, more than 12 hours ago. It is re-checked before publication.
Prices: our price feed across 20+ UK books, Pinnacle and the Betfair Exchange, checked Fri 23 Oct, 16:59:57 BSTFri Oct 23, 11:59:57 AM ETFri 23 Oct, 16:59:57 BST. Team news cross-checked against the public sources named above, read Fri 23 Oct, 16:55:00 BSTFri Oct 23, 11:55:00 AM ETFri 23 Oct, 16:55:00 BST. Line-ups: not published yet. Form, goals, xG and the table come from our match data; the strength rating is our own, built from results only. Every number on this page maps to a saved, timestamped source file.
The numbers
How UK bookies settle this: What happens to your acca if a match is postponedHow UK sportsbooks settle this: What happens to your parlay if a match is postponedHow UK bookies settle this: What happens to your acca if a match is postponed
At most of the bookmakers we checked, a postponed match is made void and your acca settles on the remaining legs, so a treble becomes a double and the odds drop. The difference is how long the match has to be replayed in: same day at Ladbrokes, Coral and BoyleSports, 48 hours at William Hill, Unibet and Betfred, 3 days at Sky Bet and Paddy Power, and 5 days at bet365. 888sport may void a bet if the match does not start within 24 hours (each from its own rules, checked 18 to 22 Oct 2026).
| Bookmaker | Window | If the match is postponed | What happens to the acca |
|---|---|---|---|
| bet365 | 5 days | Treated as a non-runner unless played within 5 days of the original scheduled time. | bet365's Acca Boost terms say a postponed leg comes out and the boost is paid on the winning legs. Its general multiples rule was not on the pages we checked. |
| Sky Bet | Current or next 3 days | Bets stand if the match is played within the current or next 3 days and this is confirmed within 3 hours of the original kick-off. Otherwise void. | Multiples stand on the remaining selections. |
| Paddy Power | Current or next 3 days | Bets stand if the match is played within the current or next 3 days and this is confirmed within 3 hours of the original kick-off. Otherwise void. | Multiples settle on the remaining legs, so a treble becomes a double. |
| William Hill | 48 hours | Void, unless the fixture is rescheduled at the point of postponement and kicks off within 48 hours of the original kick-off. Some finals and tournaments have their own rule. | Settled on the remaining selections, so a treble becomes a double. |
| Ladbrokes | Same day | Void, unless a delayed match takes place the same day (local time at the venue). Fixed-date tournament finals have their own rule. | A void selection is treated as a non-runner and the stake runs on to the remaining selections. |
| Coral | Same day | Void, unless a delayed match takes place the same day (local time at the venue). Fixed-date tournament finals have their own rule. | A void selection is treated as a non-runner and the stake runs on to the remaining selections. |
| Unibet | 48 hours | Void if postponed or rescheduled more than 48 hours from the last scheduled time, unless stated otherwise. | Not stated on the page we checked. |
| 888sport | 24 hours (may void) | 888sport may void a bet if the match does not start within 24 hours of its official start time. Bet Builders are void unless the match is completed within 48 hours. | The cancelled match is removed and the bet stands on the remaining selections. |
| BoyleSports | Same day | Void unless played the same day. | A void selection is treated as a non-runner and the stake runs on to the remaining selections. |
| Betfred | 48 hours | Bets stand if the match is played within 48 hours of the original date and time. Otherwise void, except first goalscorer bets once the first goal is scored and half-time bets once the first half is completed. | The void leg is removed and the stake goes on the remaining selections, so a treble becomes a double. |
Source: BookieRules, from each bookie's own terms. Full rule