Atlético Madrid v Deportivo
Atlético to beat Deportivo after winning every game latelyAtlético to beat Deportivo after winning every game latelyAtlético to beat Deportivo after winning every game lately
Why: Atlético Madrid: 15 points from their last fiveAtlético Madrid: 15 points from their last fiveAtlético Madrid: 15 points from their last five
Picks of the Weekend · graded so far: 0. Losing runs stay in. Full record
Why we're on it
- Recent formRecent formRecent formAtlético Madrid arrive in form (WWWWW, 15 points from five) and Deportivo do not (DLDLD, 3).Atlético Madrid arrive in form (WWWWW, 15 points from five) and Deportivo do not (DLDLD, 3).Atlético Madrid arrive in form (WWWWW, 15 points from five) and Deportivo do not (DLDLD, 3).
- Trending upTrending upTrending upAtlético Madrid are getting better, not just luckier: over the last five they average 2.38 xG for and 0.57 against, better than their season figures of 1.73 and 0.99.Atlético Madrid are getting better, not just luckier: over the last five they average 2.38 xG for and 0.57 against, better than their season figures of 1.73 and 0.99.Atlético Madrid are getting better, not just luckier: over the last five they average 2.38 xG for and 0.57 against, better than their season figures of 1.73 and 0.99.
- Strength gapStrength gapStrength gapOn our strength rating the gap is 226 points (Atlético Madrid 1642, Deportivo 1416), and home advantage adds to it.On our strength rating the gap is 226 points (Atlético Madrid 1642, Deportivo 1416), and home advantage adds to it.On our strength rating the gap is 226 points (Atlético Madrid 1642, Deportivo 1416), and home advantage adds to it.
- Chances created and concededChances created and concededChances created and concededOn chances created and conceded, Atlético Madrid average 1.73 xG for and 0.99 against a game this season; Deportivo are at 1.11 and 1.16.On chances created and conceded, Atlético Madrid average 1.73 xG for and 0.99 against a game this season; Deportivo are at 1.11 and 1.16.On chances created and conceded, Atlético Madrid average 1.73 xG for and 0.99 against a game this season; Deportivo are at 1.11 and 1.16.
- Home recordHome recordHome recordAtlético Madrid have taken 10 points from 4 home games; Deportivo have 5 from 4 away games. That split matters more than the overall table here.Atlético Madrid have taken 10 points from 4 home games; Deportivo have 5 from 4 away games. That split matters more than the overall table here.Atlético Madrid have taken 10 points from 4 home games; Deportivo have 5 from 4 away games. That split matters more than the overall table here.
What could go wrong
- Atlético Madrid are missing three regular starters, including Cristian Romero (3 starts in 9) and Johnny Cardoso (5 starts in 9).Atlético Madrid are missing three regular starters, including Cristian Romero (3 starts in 9) and Johnny Cardoso (5 starts in 9).Atlético Madrid are missing three regular starters, including Cristian Romero (3 starts in 9) and Johnny Cardoso (5 starts in 9).
- A draw, most likely: Deportivo have drawn 5 of 9 this season. The Pinnacle drift tells you the sharp market is a touch less sure than it was at the open. Anything other than an Atlético win beats this pick, about 24% of the time.A tie, most likely: Deportivo have drawn 5 of 9 this season. The Pinnacle drift tells you the sharp market is a touch less sure than it was at the open. Anything other than an Atlético win beats this pick, about 24% of the time.A draw, most likely: Deportivo have drawn 5 of 9 this season. The Pinnacle drift tells you the sharp market is a touch less sure than it was at the open. Anything other than an Atlético win beats this pick, about 24% of the time.
The price
Atlético should win: 76% likely. Pinnacle moved from 1.24 to 1.28, and no UK price beats fair.Atlético should win: 76% likely. Pinnacle moved from 1.24 to 1.28, and no UK price beats fair.Atlético should win: 76% likely. Pinnacle moved from 1.24 to 1.28, and no UK price beats fair.
Pinnacle has drifted on Atlético from 1.24 to 1.28 since it opened. The fair price is 1.32; the best UK price is 1.30 at William Hill, 1.7% below fair, so the rule does not stake it. What is left is a strong prediction: 76% for a home win.Pinnacle has drifted on Atlético from 1.24 to 1.28 since it opened. The fair price is 1.32; the best UK price is 1.30 at William Hill, 1.7% below fair, so the rule does not stake it. What is left is a strong prediction: 76% for a home win.Pinnacle has drifted on Atlético from 1.24 to 1.28 since it opened. The fair price is 1.32; the best UK price is 1.30 at William Hill, 1.7% below fair, so the rule does not stake it. What is left is a strong prediction: 76% for a home win.
Prices
These are UK sportsbook prices, shown for reference; US sportsbooks price these games differently. Unstaked prediction. For information: best price across 18 UK books, checked Sat 24 Oct, 16:05:12 BSTSat Oct 24, 11:05:12 AM ETSat 24 Oct, 16:05:12 BST.
| Book | Price (decimal) | £10 returns$10 pays10 returns |
|---|---|---|
| William Hill | 1.30 | £13.00$13.0013.00 |
| Bet365 | 1.29 | £12.86$12.8612.86 |
| Coral | 1.28 | £12.80$12.8012.80 |
| Ladbrokes | 1.28 | £12.80$12.8012.80 |
| Betfair Exchange (after 2% commission) | 1.29 | £12.94$12.9412.94 |
| Fair price (no margin) | 1.32 |
Market move
| Sharp book | Opening (decimal) | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle | 1.24 | 1.28 | drifted (+2.9%) |
| Betfair Exchange | 1.20 | 1.30 | drifted (+8.3%) |
Our chance is the average of the Pinnacle and Betfair Exchange prices with the margin removed. Fair price is one divided by that chance. Picks of the Weekend carry no stake: they are scored on how often they land against the chance we gave, with 1u at the best UK price at publication shown beside it.
The analysis
FormFormForm
Atlético's last 5: WWWWW. Deportivo's last 5: DLDLD. Atlético Madrid at home this season: won 3, drawn 1, lost 0, goals 10-3. Deportivo away: won 1, drawn 2, lost 1, goals 7-7.Atlético's last 5: WWWWW. Deportivo's last 5: DLDLD. Atlético Madrid at home this season: won 3, drawn 1, lost 0, goals 10-3. Deportivo away: won 1, drawn 2, lost 1, goals 7-7.Atlético's last 5: WWWWW. Deportivo's last 5: DLDLD. Atlético Madrid at home this season: won 3, drawn 1, lost 0, goals 10-3. Deportivo away: won 1, drawn 2, lost 1, goals 7-7.
Where they standWhere they standWhere they stand
Atlético Madrid are 2nd of 20 on 22 points from 9 games, with 19 scored and 8 conceded; Deportivo are 9th on 11 from 9, with 13 scored and 12 conceded. Our results-only Elo rating has Atlético Madrid on 1642 and Deportivo on 1416, before home advantage.Atlético Madrid are 2nd of 20 on 22 points from 9 games, with 19 scored and 8 conceded; Deportivo are 9th on 11 from 9, with 13 scored and 12 conceded. Our results-only Elo rating has Atlético Madrid on 1642 and Deportivo on 1416, before home advantage.Atlético Madrid are 2nd of 20 on 22 points from 9 games, with 19 scored and 8 conceded; Deportivo are 9th on 11 from 9, with 13 scored and 12 conceded. Our results-only Elo rating has Atlético Madrid on 1642 and Deportivo on 1416, before home advantage.
Team newsInjury reportTeam news
Team news (infobae.com, lineupstoday.com, marca.com, minutonoventa.com, mundodeportivo.com): Atlético Madrid without Koke, Cristian Romero and Johnny Cardoso. Deportivo without Bright Ede, Marc Casadó, Zakaria Eddahchouri and Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang; doubtful: Noé Carrillo.Injury report (infobae.com, lineupstoday.com, marca.com, minutonoventa.com, mundodeportivo.com): Atlético Madrid without Koke, Cristian Romero and Johnny Cardoso. Deportivo without Bright Ede, Marc Casadó, Zakaria Eddahchouri and Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang; doubtful: Noé Carrillo.Team news (infobae.com, lineupstoday.com, marca.com, minutonoventa.com, mundodeportivo.com): Atlético Madrid without Koke, Cristian Romero and Johnny Cardoso. Deportivo without Bright Ede, Marc Casadó, Zakaria Eddahchouri and Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang; doubtful: Noé Carrillo.
The underlying numbersThe underlying numbersThe underlying numbers
Season xG per game: Atlético Madrid 1.73 for and 0.99 against, Deportivo 1.11 for and 1.16 against. Deportivo draw a lot, and they concede few chances.Season xG per game: Atlético Madrid 1.73 for and 0.99 against, Deportivo 1.11 for and 1.16 against. Deportivo tie a lot, and they concede few chances.Season xG per game: Atlético Madrid 1.73 for and 0.99 against, Deportivo 1.11 for and 1.16 against. Deportivo draw a lot, and they concede few chances.
The last few resultsThe last few resultsThe last few results
Atlético Madrid, most recent first: won 1-0 away at Espanol, won 2-1 away at Alaves, won 2-1 at home to Real Madrid, won 4-0 at home to Osasuna, won 3-0 away at Real Sociedad. Deportivo, most recent first: drew 1-1 at home to Levante, lost 2-3 away at Real Sociedad, drew 1-1 at home to Betis, lost 0-1 at home to Sevilla, drew 1-1 away at Getafe.Atlético Madrid, most recent first: won 1-0 away at Espanol, won 2-1 away at Alaves, won 2-1 at home to Real Madrid, won 4-0 at home to Osasuna, won 3-0 away at Real Sociedad. Deportivo, most recent first: tied 1-1 at home to Levante, lost 2-3 away at Real Sociedad, tied 1-1 at home to Betis, lost 0-1 at home to Sevilla, tied 1-1 away at Getafe.Atlético Madrid, most recent first: won 1-0 away at Espanol, won 2-1 away at Alaves, won 2-1 at home to Real Madrid, won 4-0 at home to Osasuna, won 3-0 away at Real Sociedad. Deportivo, most recent first: drew 1-1 at home to Levante, lost 2-3 away at Real Sociedad, drew 1-1 at home to Betis, lost 0-1 at home to Sevilla, drew 1-1 away at Getafe.
What would make it a betWhat would make it a betWhat would make it a bet
For this to become a bet, a UK book would need to offer 1.35 or more, at least 2% above our fair price, but not more than 8% above it, because beyond that the sharp price is usually the stale price. The average UK price would also need to sit at least 1.5% under fair, so we know the wider market agrees with the sharp price. Today the best is 1.30.For this to become a bet, a UK sportsbook would need to offer 1.35 or more, at least 2% above our fair price, but not more than 8% above it, because beyond that the sharp price is usually the stale price. The average UK price would also need to sit at least 1.5% under fair, so we know the wider market agrees with the sharp price. Today the best is 1.30.For this to become a bet, a UK book would need to offer 1.35 or more, at least 2% above our fair price, but not more than 8% above it, because beyond that the sharp price is usually the stale price. The average UK price would also need to sit at least 1.5% under fair, so we know the wider market agrees with the sharp price. Today the best is 1.30.
Where the chance comes fromWhere the chance comes fromWhere the chance comes from
Pinnacle, margin removed, has this at 75%; the Betfair Exchange has 76%. The published chance is their average, 76%. It is in the Picks of the Weekend, our most confident calls: no stake, scored on whether picks at this level land as often as we say, with the result at the best UK price shown beside it, profit or loss.Pinnacle, margin removed, has this at 75%; the Betfair Exchange has 76%. The published chance is their average, 76%. It is in the Picks of the Weekend, our most confident calls: no stake, scored on whether picks at this level land as often as we say, with the result at the best UK price shown beside it, profit or loss.Pinnacle, margin removed, has this at 75%; the Betfair Exchange has 76%. The published chance is their average, 76%. It is in the Picks of the Weekend, our most confident calls: no stake, scored on whether picks at this level land as often as we say, with the result at the best UK price shown beside it, profit or loss.
Preview build. Team news on this page was last checked Sat 24 Oct, 16:04:00 BSTSat Oct 24, 11:04:00 AM ETSat 24 Oct, 16:04:00 BST, more than 12 hours ago. It is re-checked before publication.
Prices: our price feed across 20+ UK books, Pinnacle and the Betfair Exchange, checked Sat 24 Oct, 16:05:12 BSTSat Oct 24, 11:05:12 AM ETSat 24 Oct, 16:05:12 BST. Team news cross-checked against the public sources named above, read Sat 24 Oct, 16:04:00 BSTSat Oct 24, 11:04:00 AM ETSat 24 Oct, 16:04:00 BST. Line-ups: predicted only, not confirmed. Form, goals, xG and the table come from our match data; the strength rating is our own, built from results only. Every number on this page maps to a saved, timestamped source file.
The numbers
How UK bookies settle this: What happens to your acca if a match is postponedHow UK sportsbooks settle this: What happens to your parlay if a match is postponedHow UK bookies settle this: What happens to your acca if a match is postponed
At most of the bookmakers we checked, a postponed match is made void and your acca settles on the remaining legs, so a treble becomes a double and the odds drop. The difference is how long the match has to be replayed in: same day at Ladbrokes, Coral and BoyleSports, 48 hours at William Hill, Unibet and Betfred, 3 days at Sky Bet and Paddy Power, and 5 days at bet365. 888sport may void a bet if the match does not start within 24 hours (each from its own rules, checked 18 to 22 Oct 2026).
| Bookmaker | Window | If the match is postponed | What happens to the acca |
|---|---|---|---|
| bet365 | 5 days | Treated as a non-runner unless played within 5 days of the original scheduled time. | bet365's Acca Boost terms say a postponed leg comes out and the boost is paid on the winning legs. Its general multiples rule was not on the pages we checked. |
| Sky Bet | Current or next 3 days | Bets stand if the match is played within the current or next 3 days and this is confirmed within 3 hours of the original kick-off. Otherwise void. | Multiples stand on the remaining selections. |
| Paddy Power | Current or next 3 days | Bets stand if the match is played within the current or next 3 days and this is confirmed within 3 hours of the original kick-off. Otherwise void. | Multiples settle on the remaining legs, so a treble becomes a double. |
| William Hill | 48 hours | Void, unless the fixture is rescheduled at the point of postponement and kicks off within 48 hours of the original kick-off. Some finals and tournaments have their own rule. | Settled on the remaining selections, so a treble becomes a double. |
| Ladbrokes | Same day | Void, unless a delayed match takes place the same day (local time at the venue). Fixed-date tournament finals have their own rule. | A void selection is treated as a non-runner and the stake runs on to the remaining selections. |
| Coral | Same day | Void, unless a delayed match takes place the same day (local time at the venue). Fixed-date tournament finals have their own rule. | A void selection is treated as a non-runner and the stake runs on to the remaining selections. |
| Unibet | 48 hours | Void if postponed or rescheduled more than 48 hours from the last scheduled time, unless stated otherwise. | Not stated on the page we checked. |
| 888sport | 24 hours (may void) | 888sport may void a bet if the match does not start within 24 hours of its official start time. Bet Builders are void unless the match is completed within 48 hours. | The cancelled match is removed and the bet stands on the remaining selections. |
| BoyleSports | Same day | Void unless played the same day. | A void selection is treated as a non-runner and the stake runs on to the remaining selections. |
| Betfred | 48 hours | Bets stand if the match is played within 48 hours of the original date and time. Otherwise void, except first goalscorer bets once the first goal is scored and half-time bets once the first half is completed. | The void leg is removed and the stake goes on the remaining selections, so a treble becomes a double. |
Source: BookieRules, from each bookie's own terms. Full rule