Notts County v Stockport
Stockport to avoid defeat at Notts County, and the market agreesStockport to avoid defeat at Notts County, and the market agreesStockport to avoid defeat at Notts County, and the market agrees
Why: Stockport: 13 points from their last fiveStockport: 13 points from their last fiveStockport: 13 points from their last five
Picks of the Weekend · graded so far: 0. Losing runs stay in. Full record
Why we're on it
- Recent formRecent formRecent formThe form guide is lopsided: DWWWW for Stockport over the last five, LLLLW for Notts County. That is 13 points against 3.The form guide is lopsided: DWWWW for Stockport over the last five, LLLLW for Notts County. That is 13 points against 3.The form guide is lopsided: DWWWW for Stockport over the last five, LLLLW for Notts County. That is 13 points against 3.
- The tableThe tableThe tableStockport are 1st of 24 on 22 points from 11; Notts County are 18th on 10 from 10.Stockport are 1st of 24 on 22 points from 11; Notts County are 18th on 10 from 10.Stockport are 1st of 24 on 22 points from 11; Notts County are 18th on 10 from 10.
- Chances created and concededChances created and concededChances created and concededThe underlying numbers back it. Stockport: 1.92 xG created, 1.05 allowed per game. Notts County: 1.19 created, 1.10 allowed.The underlying numbers back it. Stockport: 1.92 xG created, 1.05 allowed per game. Notts County: 1.19 created, 1.10 allowed.The underlying numbers back it. Stockport: 1.92 xG created, 1.05 allowed per game. Notts County: 1.19 created, 1.10 allowed.
- Strength gapStrength gapStrength gapOur results-based strength rating has Stockport on 1570 and Notts County on 1438: a 132-point gap before home advantage is counted.Our results-based strength rating has Stockport on 1570 and Notts County on 1438: a 132-point gap before home advantage is counted.Our results-based strength rating has Stockport on 1570 and Notts County on 1438: a 132-point gap before home advantage is counted.
- Team newsTeam newsTeam newsNotts County are without a key starter: Olie Cooper (the squad's most valuable player, 3 league goals, 4 starts in 10). The rest of their list is one rotation player, five who have barely played this season and one we could not match to the squad list. Stockport are missing Kyron Gordon (9 starts in 11) too.Notts County are without a key starter: Olie Cooper (the roster's most valuable player, 3 league goals, 4 starts in 10). The rest of their list is one rotation player, five who have barely played this season and one we could not match to the roster list. Stockport are missing Kyron Gordon (9 starts in 11) too.Notts County are without a key starter: Olie Cooper (the squad's most valuable player, 3 league goals, 4 starts in 10). The rest of their list is one rotation player, five who have barely played this season and one we could not match to the squad list. Stockport are missing Kyron Gordon (9 starts in 11) too.
Absences are weighted by how much each player starts and contributes (how). Our chance comes from the sharp market, which already prices in known absences, so team news explains the pick; it does not change the chance.
What could go wrong
- A Notts County win, nothing else. That happens about 17% of the time on these prices. The most plausible route is what their home numbers point to: few chances conceded, and a single goal.A Notts County win, nothing else. That happens about 17% of the time on these prices. The most plausible route is what their home numbers point to: few chances conceded, and a single goal.A Notts County win, nothing else. That happens about 17% of the time on these prices. The most plausible route is what their home numbers point to: few chances conceded, and a single goal.
The price
Stockport or the draw, 83% likely. No UK price beats fair: we tip it because it is likely, not because it is cheap.Stockport or the tie, 83% likely. No UK price beats fair: we tip it because it is likely, not because it is cheap.Stockport or the draw, 83% likely. No UK price beats fair: we tip it because it is likely, not because it is cheap.
Double chance is priced by only 2 UK books in our feeds, and the better of them pays 1.16 against a fair 1.20, 3.3% below it. Our staking rule only covers straight win, draw or away bets, and even if it did, the price would be short. What the market does tell us is how likely the result is: 83% for Stockport or the draw, from the sharp prices with their margin removed.Double chance is priced by only 2 UK books in our feeds, and the better of them pays 1.16 against a fair 1.20, 3.3% below it. Our staking rule only covers straight win, tie or away bets, and even if it did, the price would be short. What the market does tell us is how likely the result is: 83% for Stockport or the tie, from the sharp prices with their margin removed.Double chance is priced by only 2 UK books in our feeds, and the better of them pays 1.16 against a fair 1.20, 3.3% below it. Our staking rule only covers straight win, draw or away bets, and even if it did, the price would be short. What the market does tell us is how likely the result is: 83% for Stockport or the draw, from the sharp prices with their margin removed.
Prices
These are UK sportsbook prices, shown for reference; US sportsbooks price these games differently. Unstaked prediction. For information: best price across 2 UK books, checked Fri 23 Oct, 17:00:39 BSTFri Oct 23, 12:00:39 PM ETFri 23 Oct, 17:00:39 BST. Double chance is priced by only two UK books in our feeds.
| Book | Price (decimal) | £10 returns$10 pays10 returns |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM UK | 1.16 | £11.60$11.6011.60 |
| Paddy Power | 1.13 | £11.25$11.2511.25 |
| Fair price (no margin) | 1.20 |
Market move
| Sharp book | Opening (decimal) | Now | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange | 1.20 | 1.19 | no real move |
Our chance is the average of the Pinnacle and Betfair Exchange prices with the margin removed. Fair price is one divided by that chance. Picks of the Weekend carry no stake: they are scored on how often they land against the chance we gave, with 1u at the best UK price at publication shown beside it.
The analysis
Where they standWhere they standWhere they stand
Notts County are 18th of 24 on 10 points from 10 games, with 10 scored and 13 conceded; Stockport are 1st on 22 from 11, with 23 scored and 11 conceded. Our results-only Elo rating has Notts County on 1438 and Stockport on 1570, before home advantage. Elo agrees with the market here.Notts County are 18th of 24 on 10 points from 10 games, with 10 scored and 13 conceded; Stockport are 1st on 22 from 11, with 23 scored and 11 conceded. Our results-only Elo rating has Notts County on 1438 and Stockport on 1570, before home advantage. Elo agrees with the market here.Notts County are 18th of 24 on 10 points from 10 games, with 10 scored and 13 conceded; Stockport are 1st on 22 from 11, with 23 scored and 11 conceded. Our results-only Elo rating has Notts County on 1438 and Stockport on 1570, before home advantage. Elo agrees with the market here.
FormFormForm
Stockport's last 5: DWWWW, with 7 goals scored and 1 conceded. Notts County's last 5: LLLLW, with 3 scored. Notts County at home this season: won 2, drawn 1, lost 2, goals 6-5. Stockport away: won 3, drawn 1, lost 1, goals 9-3.Stockport's last 5: DWWWW, with 7 goals scored and 1 conceded. Notts County's last 5: LLLLW, with 3 scored. Notts County at home this season: won 2, drawn 1, lost 2, goals 6-5. Stockport away: won 3, drawn 1, lost 1, goals 9-3.Stockport's last 5: DWWWW, with 7 goals scored and 1 conceded. Notts County's last 5: LLLLW, with 3 scored. Notts County at home this season: won 2, drawn 1, lost 2, goals 6-5. Stockport away: won 3, drawn 1, lost 1, goals 9-3.
Team newsInjury reportTeam news
Team news (btfnews.com, countysquadtracker.co.uk, sportsmole.co.uk, whoscored.com): Notts County without Matty Platt, Lewis Macari, Dean Campbell, Olie Cooper, Emile Acquah, Hindolo Mustapha, Jodi Jones and Beck-Ray Enoru; doubtful: Scott Robertson. Stockport without Kyron Gordon. The home absence list is long, which helps explain why the market sides with the visitors.Injury report (btfnews.com, countysquadtracker.co.uk, sportsmole.co.uk, whoscored.com): Notts County without Matty Platt, Lewis Macari, Dean Campbell, Olie Cooper, Emile Acquah, Hindolo Mustapha, Jodi Jones and Beck-Ray Enoru; doubtful: Scott Robertson. Stockport without Kyron Gordon. The home absence list is long, which helps explain why the market sides with the visitors.Team news (btfnews.com, countysquadtracker.co.uk, sportsmole.co.uk, whoscored.com): Notts County without Matty Platt, Lewis Macari, Dean Campbell, Olie Cooper, Emile Acquah, Hindolo Mustapha, Jodi Jones and Beck-Ray Enoru; doubtful: Scott Robertson. Stockport without Kyron Gordon. The home absence list is long, which helps explain why the market sides with the visitors.
The underlying numbersThe underlying numbersThe underlying numbers
Season xG per game: Notts County 1.19 for and 1.10 against, Stockport 1.92 for and 1.05 against. Notts County's home defence is better than their results: 0.57 xG against a game at home, which is why this is a double chance and not a straight away win.Season xG per game: Notts County 1.19 for and 1.10 against, Stockport 1.92 for and 1.05 against. Notts County's home defense is better than their results: 0.57 xG against a game at home, which is why this is a double chance and not a straight away win.Season xG per game: Notts County 1.19 for and 1.10 against, Stockport 1.92 for and 1.05 against. Notts County's home defence is better than their results: 0.57 xG against a game at home, which is why this is a double chance and not a straight away win.
The last few resultsThe last few resultsThe last few results
Notts County, most recent first: won 2-0 at home to Sheffield Wednesday, lost 0-2 away at Wycombe, lost 1-2 at home to Oxford, lost 0-2 away at Reading, lost 0-1 at home to Bradford. Stockport, most recent first: won 2-0 away at Doncaster, won 1-0 at home to Bromley, won 3-1 at home to Barnsley, won 1-0 at home to Peterborough, drew 0-0 away at Sheffield Wednesday.Notts County, most recent first: won 2-0 at home to Sheffield Wednesday, lost 0-2 away at Wycombe, lost 1-2 at home to Oxford, lost 0-2 away at Reading, lost 0-1 at home to Bradford. Stockport, most recent first: won 2-0 away at Doncaster, won 1-0 at home to Bromley, won 3-1 at home to Barnsley, won 1-0 at home to Peterborough, tied 0-0 away at Sheffield Wednesday.Notts County, most recent first: won 2-0 at home to Sheffield Wednesday, lost 0-2 away at Wycombe, lost 1-2 at home to Oxford, lost 0-2 away at Reading, lost 0-1 at home to Bradford. Stockport, most recent first: won 2-0 away at Doncaster, won 1-0 at home to Bromley, won 3-1 at home to Barnsley, won 1-0 at home to Peterborough, drew 0-0 away at Sheffield Wednesday.
Why double chance is never stakedWhy double chance is never stakedWhy double chance is never staked
Double chance is priced by very few UK books, and its margin is folded into a single number, so we cannot test it against a sharp closing price as we test straight bets. Our rule therefore never stakes it. We publish the chance because it is the most likely outcome of the match, and we grade ourselves on it.Double chance is priced by very few UK books, and its margin is folded into a single number, so we cannot test it against a sharp closing price as we test straight bets. Our rule therefore never stakes it. We publish the chance because it is the most likely outcome of the match, and we grade ourselves on it.Double chance is priced by very few UK books, and its margin is folded into a single number, so we cannot test it against a sharp closing price as we test straight bets. Our rule therefore never stakes it. We publish the chance because it is the most likely outcome of the match, and we grade ourselves on it.
Where the chance comes fromWhere the chance comes fromWhere the chance comes from
The chance comes from the sharpest markets with their margins stripped out: 83% at Pinnacle, 83% on the exchange, averaged to 83%. It is in the Picks of the Weekend, our most confident calls: no stake, scored on whether picks at this level land as often as we say, with the result at the best UK price shown beside it, profit or loss.The chance comes from the sharpest markets with their margins stripped out: 83% at Pinnacle, 83% on the exchange, averaged to 83%. It is in the Picks of the Weekend, our most confident calls: no stake, scored on whether picks at this level land as often as we say, with the result at the best UK price shown beside it, profit or loss.The chance comes from the sharpest markets with their margins stripped out: 83% at Pinnacle, 83% on the exchange, averaged to 83%. It is in the Picks of the Weekend, our most confident calls: no stake, scored on whether picks at this level land as often as we say, with the result at the best UK price shown beside it, profit or loss.
Preview build. Team news on this page was last checked Fri 23 Oct, 16:55:00 BSTFri Oct 23, 11:55:00 AM ETFri 23 Oct, 16:55:00 BST, more than 12 hours ago. It is re-checked before publication.
Prices: our price feed across 20+ UK books, Pinnacle and the Betfair Exchange, checked Fri 23 Oct, 17:00:39 BSTFri Oct 23, 12:00:39 PM ETFri 23 Oct, 17:00:39 BST. Team news cross-checked against the public sources named above, read Fri 23 Oct, 16:55:00 BSTFri Oct 23, 11:55:00 AM ETFri 23 Oct, 16:55:00 BST. Line-ups: not published yet. Form, goals, xG and the table come from our match data; the strength rating is our own, built from results only. Every number on this page maps to a saved, timestamped source file.
The numbers
How UK bookies settle this: What happens to your acca if a match is postponedHow UK sportsbooks settle this: What happens to your parlay if a match is postponedHow UK bookies settle this: What happens to your acca if a match is postponed
At most of the bookmakers we checked, a postponed match is made void and your acca settles on the remaining legs, so a treble becomes a double and the odds drop. The difference is how long the match has to be replayed in: same day at Ladbrokes, Coral and BoyleSports, 48 hours at William Hill, Unibet and Betfred, 3 days at Sky Bet and Paddy Power, and 5 days at bet365. 888sport may void a bet if the match does not start within 24 hours (each from its own rules, checked 18 to 22 Oct 2026).
| Bookmaker | Window | If the match is postponed | What happens to the acca |
|---|---|---|---|
| bet365 | 5 days | Treated as a non-runner unless played within 5 days of the original scheduled time. | bet365's Acca Boost terms say a postponed leg comes out and the boost is paid on the winning legs. Its general multiples rule was not on the pages we checked. |
| Sky Bet | Current or next 3 days | Bets stand if the match is played within the current or next 3 days and this is confirmed within 3 hours of the original kick-off. Otherwise void. | Multiples stand on the remaining selections. |
| Paddy Power | Current or next 3 days | Bets stand if the match is played within the current or next 3 days and this is confirmed within 3 hours of the original kick-off. Otherwise void. | Multiples settle on the remaining legs, so a treble becomes a double. |
| William Hill | 48 hours | Void, unless the fixture is rescheduled at the point of postponement and kicks off within 48 hours of the original kick-off. Some finals and tournaments have their own rule. | Settled on the remaining selections, so a treble becomes a double. |
| Ladbrokes | Same day | Void, unless a delayed match takes place the same day (local time at the venue). Fixed-date tournament finals have their own rule. | A void selection is treated as a non-runner and the stake runs on to the remaining selections. |
| Coral | Same day | Void, unless a delayed match takes place the same day (local time at the venue). Fixed-date tournament finals have their own rule. | A void selection is treated as a non-runner and the stake runs on to the remaining selections. |
| Unibet | 48 hours | Void if postponed or rescheduled more than 48 hours from the last scheduled time, unless stated otherwise. | Not stated on the page we checked. |
| 888sport | 24 hours (may void) | 888sport may void a bet if the match does not start within 24 hours of its official start time. Bet Builders are void unless the match is completed within 48 hours. | The cancelled match is removed and the bet stands on the remaining selections. |
| BoyleSports | Same day | Void unless played the same day. | A void selection is treated as a non-runner and the stake runs on to the remaining selections. |
| Betfred | 48 hours | Bets stand if the match is played within 48 hours of the original date and time. Otherwise void, except first goalscorer bets once the first goal is scored and half-time bets once the first half is completed. | The void leg is removed and the stake goes on the remaining selections, so a treble becomes a double. |
Source: BookieRules, from each bookie's own terms. Full rule