Liverpool v Brighton prediction and odds
Not a staked pick and not in our record. This page gives our most likely result with the reasons, the fair price from the sharp market and whether any UK price beats it under our staking rule. Our staked picks are only in this weekend's picks.
No bet. The closest is Liverpool to win at 2.15 (Unibet), −1.5% against our fair 2.18. Our rule needs 2.23 or better.
Sharp move on Liverpool to win: Pinnacle 2.01 at the open, 2.11 now (drifted 5.0%).
Our launch pick on this match, logged on 23 Oct under the earlier rules and kept in the record as published: Brighton.
Why we make Liverpool favourites
Liverpool win at home is our most likely result at 46%. The reasons:
What could go wrong
- Brighton travel well enough to worry about: won 2, drawn 0, lost 1 away, 6 points from 3.Brighton travel well enough to worry about: won 2, tied 0, lost 1 away, 6 points from 3.Brighton travel well enough to worry about: won 2, drawn 0, lost 1 away, 6 points from 3.
- The sharp market has gone the other way: Pinnacle opened at 2.01 and is 2.11 now.The sharp market has gone the other way: Pinnacle opened at 2.01 and is 2.11 now.The sharp market has gone the other way: Pinnacle opened at 2.01 and is 2.11 now.
Our price
UK sportsbook prices, for reference; US sportsbooks price soccer differently. Match result (90 minutes). Chance = average of Pinnacle and Betfair Exchange with the margin removed; fair price = 1 / chance. Best of 20 UK books.
| Selection | Our chance | Fair (decimal) | Best UK price | vs fair | Our rule |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liverpool to win | 46% | 2.18 | 2.15 UnibetUnibet | −1.5% | Needs 2.23 or better |
| Draw | 25% | 4.07 | 3/1 BetfredBetfred | −1.8% | Chance under 30%: not staked |
| Brighton & Hove Albion to win | 30% | 3.37 | 12/5 Bet365Bet365 | +0.8% | Chance under 30%: not staked |
Sharp market move (opening to now, decimal)
| Selection | Pinnacle | Betfair Exchange |
|---|---|---|
| Liverpool to win | 2.01 → 2.11 | 2.04 → 2.16 |
| Draw | 3.96 → 3.97 | 3.95 → 4.00 |
| Brighton & Hove Albion to win | 3.26 → 3.20 | 3.40 → 3.40 |
Other UK prices for Liverpool to win: 888sport 2.10, Betfair Sportsbook 2.10, BoyleSports 2.10. Average of all 20: 2.08 (−4.7% against fair). Exchanges (before commission): Betfair Exchange 2.20, Smarkets 2.20, Matchbook 2.20.
The match in numbers
Liverpool are 5th of 20 on 12 points from 7 games (goals 9-8); Brighton are 3rd on 16 from 7 (goals 23-5).
Liverpool at home: won 0, drawn 2, lost 1, goals 2-5. Brighton away: won 2, drawn 0, lost 1, goals 10-4.
Last five league games, oldest first: Liverpool WDWLW, Brighton DWWWW. Season xG per game: Liverpool 1.56 for, 1.18 against; Brighton 2.13 for, 1.45 against. Our strength rating: Liverpool 1746, Brighton 1707 (the home side gets 60 more).
Prices: our price feed across 20 UK books, Pinnacle and the Betfair Exchange, checked Sat 24 Oct, 13:31:30 BSTSat Oct 24, 8:31:30 AM ETSat 24 Oct, 13:31:30 BST. Table, form, goals and xG come from our match data (league results up to 2026-10-19); the strength rating is our own, built from results only. Team news is not checked for these pages. Prices move: check yours before you bet.