Crystal Palace v Newcastle prediction and odds
Not a staked pick and not in our record. This page gives our most likely result with the reasons, the fair price from the sharp market and whether any UK price beats it under our staking rule. Our staked picks are only in this weekend's picks.
No bet. The closest is Newcastle United to win at 2.38 (Betfair Sportsbook), −3.7% against our fair 2.47. Our rule needs 2.52 or better.
Sharp move on Newcastle United to win: Pinnacle 2.56 at the open, 2.36 now (shortened 7.8%).
Why we make Newcastle favourites
Newcastle win away is our most likely result at 40%. The reasons:
- The sharp marketThe sharp marketThe sharp marketMoney has come for it: Pinnacle opened at 2.56 and is 2.36 now, so the sharpest book has moved toward this result since the market opened.Money has come for it: Pinnacle opened at 2.56 and is 2.36 now, so the sharpest book has moved toward this result since the market opened.Money has come for it: Pinnacle opened at 2.56 and is 2.36 now, so the sharpest book has moved toward this result since the market opened.
What could go wrong
- Newcastle have conceded more chances than they have created this season (1.16 xG for, 1.70 against a game). The market rates them anyway, but it is a soft spot.Newcastle have conceded more chances than they have created this season (1.16 xG for, 1.70 against a game). The market rates them anyway, but it is a soft spot.Newcastle have conceded more chances than they have created this season (1.16 xG for, 1.70 against a game). The market rates them anyway, but it is a soft spot.
- Even at 40%, this misses about 6 times in 10: a draw or a Crystal Palace win both beat it.Even at 40%, this misses about 6 times in 10: a tie or a Crystal Palace win both beat it.Even at 40%, this misses about 6 times in 10: a draw or a Crystal Palace win both beat it.
Our price
UK sportsbook prices, for reference; US sportsbooks price soccer differently. Match result (90 minutes). Chance = average of Pinnacle and Betfair Exchange with the margin removed; fair price = 1 / chance. Best of 20 UK books.
| Selection | Our chance | Fair (decimal) | Best UK price | vs fair | Our rule |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crystal Palace to win | 33% | 3.02 | 2.90 Betfair SportsbookBetfair Sportsbook | −4.1% | Needs 3.09 or better |
| Draw | 26% | 3.78 | 3.80 BoyleSportsBoyleSports | +0.4% | Chance under 30%: not staked |
| Newcastle United to win | 40% | 2.47 | 11/8 Betfair SportsbookBetfair Sportsbook | −3.7% | Needs 2.52 or better |
Sharp market move (opening to now, decimal)
| Selection | Pinnacle | Betfair Exchange |
|---|---|---|
| Crystal Palace to win | 2.67 → 2.94 | 2.60 → 2.98 |
| Draw | 3.47 → 3.66 | 3.70 → 3.75 |
| Newcastle United to win | 2.56 → 2.36 | 2.62 → 2.48 |
Other UK prices for Newcastle United to win: Unibet 2.35, Casumo 2.32, 888sport 2.30. Average of all 20: 2.30 (−7.0% against fair). Exchanges (before commission): Betfair Exchange 2.48, Smarkets 2.46, Matchbook 2.48.
The match in numbers
Crystal Palace are 14th of 20 on 7 points from 7 games (goals 9-17); Newcastle are 11th on 8 from 7 (goals 10-14).
Crystal Palace at home: won 1, drawn 0, lost 2, goals 6-8. Newcastle away: won 1, drawn 0, lost 2, goals 4-8.
Last five league games, oldest first: Crystal Palace WLDWL, Newcastle DLWLL. Season xG per game: Crystal Palace 1.35 for, 2.11 against; Newcastle 1.16 for, 1.70 against. Our strength rating: Crystal Palace 1616, Newcastle 1639 (the home side gets 60 more).
Prices: our price feed across 20 UK books, Pinnacle and the Betfair Exchange, checked Sat 24 Oct, 13:31:30 BSTSat Oct 24, 8:31:30 AM ETSat 24 Oct, 13:31:30 BST. Table, form, goals and xG come from our match data (league results up to 2026-10-19); the strength rating is our own, built from results only. Team news is not checked for these pages. Prices move: check yours before you bet.