Hull v Brentford prediction and odds
Not a staked pick and not in our record. This page gives our most likely result with the reasons, the fair price from the sharp market and whether any UK price beats it under our staking rule. Our staked picks are only in this weekend's picks.
No bet. The closest is Brentford to win at 1.73 (Coral), −2.6% against our fair 1.78. Our rule needs 1.82 or better.
Sharp move on Brentford to win: Pinnacle 1.74 at the open, 1.70 now (shortened 2.1%).
Why we make Brentford favourites
Brentford win away is our most likely result at 56%. The reasons:
- Chances created and concededChances created and concededChances created and concededBrentford create more and allow less. Per game this season: 1.68 xG for and 1.46 against, where Hull manage 0.97 and give up 1.49.Brentford create more and allow less. Per game this season: 1.68 xG for and 1.46 against, where Hull manage 0.97 and give up 1.49.Brentford create more and allow less. Per game this season: 1.68 xG for and 1.46 against, where Hull manage 0.97 and give up 1.49.
- Strength gapStrength gapStrength gapOur results-based strength rating has Brentford on 1668 and Hull on 1553: a 115-point gap before home advantage is counted.Our results-based strength rating has Brentford on 1668 and Hull on 1553: a 115-point gap before home advantage is counted.Our results-based strength rating has Brentford on 1668 and Hull on 1553: a 115-point gap before home advantage is counted.
- Recent formRecent formRecent formBrentford have 6 points from their last five (DDWDL), scoring 9 and conceding 7. Hull have 3 (DDLDL).Brentford have 6 points from their last five (DDWDL), scoring 9 and conceding 7. Hull have 3 (DDLDL).Brentford have 6 points from their last five (DDWDL), scoring 9 and conceding 7. Hull have 3 (DDLDL).
- The sharp marketThe sharp marketThe sharp marketMoney has come for it: Pinnacle opened at 1.74 and is 1.70 now, so the sharpest book has moved toward this result since the market opened.Money has come for it: Pinnacle opened at 1.74 and is 1.70 now, so the sharpest book has moved toward this result since the market opened.Money has come for it: Pinnacle opened at 1.74 and is 1.70 now, so the sharpest book has moved toward this result since the market opened.
What could go wrong
- Brentford's chance numbers have dipped lately: 1.26 xG for and 1.65 against over the last five, worse than their season average.Brentford's chance numbers have dipped lately: 1.26 xG for and 1.65 against over the last five, worse than their season average.Brentford's chance numbers have dipped lately: 1.26 xG for and 1.65 against over the last five, worse than their season average.
- Even at 56%, this misses about 4 times in 10: a draw or a Hull win both beat it.Even at 56%, this misses about 4 times in 10: a tie or a Hull win both beat it.Even at 56%, this misses about 4 times in 10: a draw or a Hull win both beat it.
Our price
UK sportsbook prices, for reference; US sportsbooks price soccer differently. Match result (90 minutes). Chance = average of Pinnacle and Betfair Exchange with the margin removed; fair price = 1 / chance. Best of 20 UK books.
| Selection | Our chance | Fair (decimal) | Best UK price | vs fair | Our rule |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hull City to win | 20% | 5.06 | 4.75 Betfair SportsbookBetfair Sportsbook | −6.1% | Chance under 30%: not staked |
| Draw | 24% | 4.18 | 3/1 BetVictorBetVictor | −4.3% | Chance under 30%: not staked |
| Brentford to win | 56% | 1.78 | 8/11 CoralCoral | −2.6% | Needs 1.82 or better |
Sharp market move (opening to now, decimal)
| Selection | Pinnacle | Betfair Exchange |
|---|---|---|
| Hull City to win | 4.42 → 4.80 | 4.70 → 5.10 |
| Draw | 3.88 → 4.08 | 4.00 → 4.10 |
| Brentford to win | 1.74 → 1.70 | 1.76 → 1.77 |
Other UK prices for Brentford to win: Ladbrokes 1.73, William Hill 1.73, Bet365 1.73. Average of all 20: 1.69 (−4.7% against fair). Exchanges (before commission): Betfair Exchange 1.78, Smarkets 1.78, Matchbook 1.78.
The match in numbers
Hull are 9th of 20 on 9 points from 7 games (goals 8-7); Brentford are 6th on 10 from 7 (goals 13-8).
Hull at home: won 1, drawn 2, lost 0, goals 4-2. Brentford away: won 0, drawn 3, lost 0, goals 5-5.
Last five league games, oldest first: Hull DDLDL, Brentford DDWDL. Season xG per game: Hull 0.97 for, 1.49 against; Brentford 1.68 for, 1.46 against. Our strength rating: Hull 1553, Brentford 1668 (the home side gets 60 more).
Prices: our price feed across 20 UK books, Pinnacle and the Betfair Exchange, checked Sat 24 Oct, 13:31:30 BSTSat Oct 24, 8:31:30 AM ETSat 24 Oct, 13:31:30 BST. Table, form, goals and xG come from our match data (league results up to 2026-10-19); the strength rating is our own, built from results only. Team news is not checked for these pages. Prices move: check yours before you bet.