Man United v Bournemouth prediction and odds
Not a staked pick and not in our record. This page gives our most likely result with the reasons, the fair price from the sharp market and whether any UK price beats it under our staking rule. Our staked picks are only in this weekend's picks.
No bet. The closest is Bournemouth to win at 3.25 (Casumo), −2.1% against our fair 3.32. Our rule needs 3.39 or better.
Sharp move on Bournemouth to win: Pinnacle 3.90 at the open, 3.21 now (shortened 17.7%).
Why we make Man United favourites
Man United win at home is our most likely result at 44%. The reasons:
- Home recordHome recordHome recordThe venue numbers lean one way: Man United won 1, drawn 1, lost 1 at home (6-4), Bournemouth won 0, drawn 1, lost 2 away (4-9).The venue numbers lean one way: Man United won 1, tied 1, lost 1 at home (6-4), Bournemouth won 0, tied 1, lost 2 away (4-9).The venue numbers lean one way: Man United won 1, drawn 1, lost 1 at home (6-4), Bournemouth won 0, drawn 1, lost 2 away (4-9).
What could go wrong
- The sharp market has gone the other way: Pinnacle opened at 1.81 and is 2.19 now.The sharp market has gone the other way: Pinnacle opened at 1.81 and is 2.19 now.The sharp market has gone the other way: Pinnacle opened at 1.81 and is 2.19 now.
- Man United's chance numbers have dipped lately: 1.00 xG for and 1.35 against over the last five, worse than their season average.Man United's chance numbers have dipped lately: 1.00 xG for and 1.35 against over the last five, worse than their season average.Man United's chance numbers have dipped lately: 1.00 xG for and 1.35 against over the last five, worse than their season average.
Our price
UK sportsbook prices, for reference; US sportsbooks price soccer differently. Match result (90 minutes). Chance = average of Pinnacle and Betfair Exchange with the margin removed; fair price = 1 / chance. Best of 20 UK books.
| Selection | Our chance | Fair (decimal) | Best UK price | vs fair | Our rule |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manchester United to win | 44% | 2.30 | 6/5 Betfair SportsbookBetfair Sportsbook | −4.3% | Needs 2.35 or better |
| Draw | 26% | 3.79 | 11/4 BoyleSportsBoyleSports | −1.1% | Chance under 30%: not staked |
| Bournemouth to win | 30% | 3.32 | 9/4 CasumoCasumo | −2.1% | Needs 3.39 or better |
Sharp market move (opening to now, decimal)
| Selection | Pinnacle | Betfair Exchange |
|---|---|---|
| Manchester United to win | 1.81 → 2.19 | now 2.32 |
| Draw | 4.03 → 3.69 | 4.20 → 3.75 |
| Bournemouth to win | 3.90 → 3.21 | now 3.30 |
Other UK prices for Bournemouth to win: Grosvenor 3.20, LiveScore Bet 3.20, Virgin Bet 3.20. Average of all 20: 3.08 (−7.1% against fair). Exchanges (before commission): Betfair Exchange 3.30, Smarkets 3.30, Matchbook 3.30.
The match in numbers
Man United are 13th of 20 on 7 points from 7 games (goals 10-10); Bournemouth are 15th on 6 from 7 (goals 9-13).
Man United at home: won 1, drawn 1, lost 1, goals 6-4. Bournemouth away: won 0, drawn 1, lost 2, goals 4-9.
Last five league games, oldest first: Man United DLDDD, Bournemouth DDLLW. Season xG per game: Man United 1.63 for, 1.40 against; Bournemouth 1.76 for, 1.18 against. Our strength rating: Man United 1710, Bournemouth 1679 (the home side gets 60 more).
Prices: our price feed across 20 UK books, Pinnacle and the Betfair Exchange, checked Sat 24 Oct, 13:31:30 BSTSat Oct 24, 8:31:30 AM ETSat 24 Oct, 13:31:30 BST. Table, form, goals and xG come from our match data (league results up to 2026-10-19); the strength rating is our own, built from results only. Team news is not checked for these pages. Prices move: check yours before you bet.