Bournemouth v Leeds prediction and odds
Not a staked pick and not in our record. This page gives our most likely result with the reasons, the fair price from the sharp market and whether any UK price beats it under our staking rule. Our staked picks are only in this weekend's picks.
No bet. The closest is Bournemouth to win at 2.20 (Unibet), −3.7% against our fair 2.29. Our rule needs 2.34 or better.
Sharp move on Bournemouth to win: Pinnacle 2.25 at the open, 2.19 now (shortened 2.7%).
Why we make Bournemouth favourites
Bournemouth win at home is our most likely result at 44%. The reasons:
- Trending upTrending upTrending upBournemouth are getting better, not just luckier: over the last five they average 1.90 xG for and 0.81 against, better than their season figures of 1.76 and 1.18.Bournemouth are getting better, not just luckier: over the last five they average 1.90 xG for and 0.81 against, better than their season figures of 1.76 and 1.18.Bournemouth are getting better, not just luckier: over the last five they average 1.90 xG for and 0.81 against, better than their season figures of 1.76 and 1.18.
- Chances created and concededChances created and concededChances created and concededStrip out the finishing and Bournemouth still look the better side: 1.76 xG for and 1.18 against per game, against 1.38 and 1.37 for Leeds.Strip out the finishing and Bournemouth still look the better side: 1.76 xG for and 1.18 against per game, against 1.38 and 1.37 for Leeds.Strip out the finishing and Bournemouth still look the better side: 1.76 xG for and 1.18 against per game, against 1.38 and 1.37 for Leeds.
- The sharp marketThe sharp marketThe sharp marketMoney has come for it: Pinnacle opened at 2.25 and is 2.19 now, so the sharpest book has moved toward this result since the market opened.Money has come for it: Pinnacle opened at 2.25 and is 2.19 now, so the sharpest book has moved toward this result since the market opened.Money has come for it: Pinnacle opened at 2.25 and is 2.19 now, so the sharpest book has moved toward this result since the market opened.
What could go wrong
- Even at 44%, this misses about 6 times in 10: a draw or a Leeds win both beat it.Even at 44%, this misses about 6 times in 10: a tie or a Leeds win both beat it.Even at 44%, this misses about 6 times in 10: a draw or a Leeds win both beat it.
Our price
UK sportsbook prices, for reference; US sportsbooks price soccer differently. Match result (90 minutes). Chance = average of Pinnacle and Betfair Exchange with the margin removed; fair price = 1 / chance. Best of 17 UK books.
| Selection | Our chance | Fair (decimal) | Best UK price | vs fair | Our rule |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bournemouth to win | 44% | 2.29 | 6/5 UnibetUnibet | −3.7% | Needs 2.34 or better |
| Draw | 28% | 3.62 | 13/5 CasumoCasumo | −0.5% | Chance under 30%: not staked |
| Leeds United to win | 29% | 3.50 | 3.45 CasumoCasumo | −1.4% | Chance under 30%: not staked |
Sharp market move (opening to now, decimal)
| Selection | Pinnacle | Betfair Exchange |
|---|---|---|
| Bournemouth to win | 2.25 → 2.19 | 2.28 → 2.22 |
| Draw | 3.51 → 3.34 | 3.70 → 3.65 |
| Leeds United to win | 2.98 → 3.35 | 2.98 → 3.40 |
Other UK prices for Bournemouth to win: Bet365 2.20, 888sport 2.15, William Hill 2.15. Average of all 17: 2.11 (−7.5% against fair). Exchanges (before commission): Betfair Exchange 2.24, Smarkets 2.22.
The match in numbers
Bournemouth are 15th of 20 on 6 points from 7 games (goals 9-13); Leeds are 7th on 10 from 7 (goals 9-6).
Bournemouth at home: won 1, drawn 2, lost 1, goals 5-4. Leeds away: won 1, drawn 1, lost 1, goals 3-3.
Last five league games, oldest first: Bournemouth DDLLW, Leeds DWDLD. Season xG per game: Bournemouth 1.76 for, 1.18 against; Leeds 1.38 for, 1.37 against. Our strength rating: Bournemouth 1679, Leeds 1679 (the home side gets 60 more).
Prices: our price feed across 17 UK books, Pinnacle and the Betfair Exchange, checked Sat 24 Oct, 13:31:30 BSTSat Oct 24, 8:31:30 AM ETSat 24 Oct, 13:31:30 BST. Table, form, goals and xG come from our match data (league results up to 2026-10-19); the strength rating is our own, built from results only. Team news is not checked for these pages. Prices move: check yours before you bet.