Chelsea v Spurs prediction and odds
Not a staked pick and not in our record. This page gives our most likely result with the reasons, the fair price from the sharp market and whether any UK price beats it under our staking rule. Our staked picks are only in this weekend's picks.
No bet. The closest is Chelsea to win at 1.91 (Betfair Sportsbook), −3.3% against our fair 1.97. Our rule needs 2.02 or better.
Sharp move on Chelsea to win: Pinnacle 1.68 at the open, 1.91 now (drifted 13.6%).
Our launch pick on this match, logged on 23 Oct under the earlier rules and kept in the record as published: Tottenham.
Why we make Chelsea favourites
Chelsea win at home is our most likely result at 51%. The reasons:
- Home recordHome recordHome recordChelsea have taken 7 points from 3 home games; Spurs have 2 from 3 away games. That split matters more than the overall table here.Chelsea have taken 7 points from 3 home games; Spurs have 2 from 3 away games. That split matters more than the overall table here.Chelsea have taken 7 points from 3 home games; Spurs have 2 from 3 away games. That split matters more than the overall table here.
- The tableThe tableThe tableChelsea are 4th of 20 on 13 points from 7; Spurs are 16th on 6 from 7.Chelsea are 4th of 20 on 13 points from 7; Spurs are 16th on 6 from 7.Chelsea are 4th of 20 on 13 points from 7; Spurs are 16th on 6 from 7.
- Strength gapStrength gapStrength gapOur results-based strength rating has Chelsea on 1686 and Spurs on 1571: a 115-point gap before home advantage is counted.Our results-based strength rating has Chelsea on 1686 and Spurs on 1571: a 115-point gap before home advantage is counted.Our results-based strength rating has Chelsea on 1686 and Spurs on 1571: a 115-point gap before home advantage is counted.
What could go wrong
- The sharp market has gone the other way: Pinnacle opened at 1.68 and is 1.91 now.The sharp market has gone the other way: Pinnacle opened at 1.68 and is 1.91 now.The sharp market has gone the other way: Pinnacle opened at 1.68 and is 1.91 now.
- Chelsea have scored 17 in 7 from chances worth about 1.33 xG a game, so their results have run ahead of their chances. That can turn.Chelsea have scored 17 in 7 from chances worth about 1.33 xG a game, so their results have run ahead of their chances. That can turn.Chelsea have scored 17 in 7 from chances worth about 1.33 xG a game, so their results have run ahead of their chances. That can turn.
Our price
UK sportsbook prices, for reference; US sportsbooks price soccer differently. Match result (90 minutes). Chance = average of Pinnacle and Betfair Exchange with the margin removed; fair price = 1 / chance. Best of 20 UK books.
| Selection | Our chance | Fair (decimal) | Best UK price | vs fair | Our rule |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chelsea to win | 51% | 1.97 | 10/11 Betfair SportsbookBetfair Sportsbook | −3.3% | Needs 2.02 or better |
| Draw | 25% | 4.01 | 3/1 BoyleSportsBoyleSports | −0.1% | Chance under 30%: not staked |
| Tottenham Hotspur to win | 24% | 4.10 | 3/1 Bet365Bet365 | −2.5% | Chance under 30%: not staked |
Sharp market move (opening to now, decimal)
| Selection | Pinnacle | Betfair Exchange |
|---|---|---|
| Chelsea to win | 1.68 → 1.91 | 1.74 → 1.97 |
| Draw | 4.11 → 3.87 | 4.10 → 4.00 |
| Tottenham Hotspur to win | 4.32 → 3.96 | 4.30 → 4.10 |
Other UK prices for Chelsea to win: Coral 1.91, Ladbrokes 1.91, William Hill 1.91. Average of all 20: 1.87 (−5.1% against fair). Exchanges (before commission): Betfair Exchange 1.97, Smarkets 1.96, Matchbook 1.97.
The match in numbers
Chelsea are 4th of 20 on 13 points from 7 games (goals 17-13); Spurs are 16th on 6 from 7 (goals 6-10).
Chelsea at home: won 2, drawn 1, lost 0, goals 11-6. Spurs away: won 0, drawn 2, lost 1, goals 1-4.
Last five league games, oldest first: Chelsea LDLWW, Spurs DDLDW. Season xG per game: Chelsea 1.33 for, 1.52 against; Spurs 1.06 for, 1.35 against. Our strength rating: Chelsea 1686, Spurs 1571 (the home side gets 60 more).
Prices: our price feed across 20 UK books, Pinnacle and the Betfair Exchange, checked Sat 24 Oct, 13:31:30 BSTSat Oct 24, 8:31:30 AM ETSat 24 Oct, 13:31:30 BST. Table, form, goals and xG come from our match data (league results up to 2026-10-19); the strength rating is our own, built from results only. Team news is not checked for these pages. Prices move: check yours before you bet.