Sunderland v Leeds prediction and odds
Not a staked pick and not in our record. This page gives our most likely result with the reasons, the fair price from the sharp market and whether any UK price beats it under our staking rule. Our staked picks are only in this weekend's picks.
No bet. The closest is Leeds United to win at 2.55 (Unibet), −2.6% against our fair 2.62. Our rule needs 2.67 or better.
Sharp move on Leeds United to win: Pinnacle 2.60 at the open, 2.54 now (shortened 2.3%).
Why we make Leeds favourites
Leeds win away is our most likely result at 38%. The reasons:
- The tableThe tableThe tableLeeds are 7th of 20 on 10 points from 7; Sunderland are 20th on 4 from 7.Leeds are 7th of 20 on 10 points from 7; Sunderland are 20th on 4 from 7.Leeds are 7th of 20 on 10 points from 7; Sunderland are 20th on 4 from 7.
- Recent formRecent formRecent formThe form guide is lopsided: DWDLD for Leeds over the last five, DLLLL for Sunderland. That is 6 points against 1.The form guide is lopsided: DWDLD for Leeds over the last five, DLLLL for Sunderland. That is 6 points against 1.The form guide is lopsided: DWDLD for Leeds over the last five, DLLLL for Sunderland. That is 6 points against 1.
- Chances created and concededChances created and concededChances created and concededStrip out the finishing and Leeds still look the better side: 1.38 xG for and 1.37 against per game, against 1.51 and 2.04 for Sunderland.Strip out the finishing and Leeds still look the better side: 1.38 xG for and 1.37 against per game, against 1.51 and 2.04 for Sunderland.Strip out the finishing and Leeds still look the better side: 1.38 xG for and 1.37 against per game, against 1.51 and 2.04 for Sunderland.
- Strength gapStrength gapStrength gapOn our strength rating the gap is 79 points (Leeds 1679, Sunderland 1600), enough to cover playing away.On our strength rating the gap is 79 points (Leeds 1679, Sunderland 1600), enough to cover playing away.On our strength rating the gap is 79 points (Leeds 1679, Sunderland 1600), enough to cover playing away.
- The sharp marketThe sharp marketThe sharp marketMoney has come for it: Pinnacle opened at 2.60 and is 2.54 now, so the sharpest book has moved toward this result since the market opened.Money has come for it: Pinnacle opened at 2.60 and is 2.54 now, so the sharpest book has moved toward this result since the market opened.Money has come for it: Pinnacle opened at 2.60 and is 2.54 now, so the sharpest book has moved toward this result since the market opened.
What could go wrong
- Even at 38%, this misses about 6 times in 10: a draw or a Sunderland win both beat it.Even at 38%, this misses about 6 times in 10: a tie or a Sunderland win both beat it.Even at 38%, this misses about 6 times in 10: a draw or a Sunderland win both beat it.
Our price
UK sportsbook prices, for reference; US sportsbooks price soccer differently. Match result (90 minutes). Chance = average of Pinnacle and Betfair Exchange with the margin removed; fair price = 1 / chance. Best of 20 UK books.
| Selection | Our chance | Fair (decimal) | Best UK price | vs fair | Our rule |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sunderland to win | 32% | 3.14 | 2/1 Betfair SportsbookBetfair Sportsbook | −4.5% | Needs 3.21 or better |
| Draw | 30% | 3.34 | 3.30 CoralCoral | −1.1% | Chance under 30%: not staked |
| Leeds United to win | 38% | 2.62 | 2.55 UnibetUnibet | −2.6% | Needs 2.67 or better |
Sharp market move (opening to now, decimal)
| Selection | Pinnacle | Betfair Exchange |
|---|---|---|
| Sunderland to win | 2.69 → 3.00 | 2.88 → 3.15 |
| Draw | 3.37 → 3.23 | 3.40 → 3.30 |
| Leeds United to win | 2.60 → 2.54 | 2.52 → 2.58 |
Other UK prices for Leeds United to win: Betfair Sportsbook 2.50, Casumo 2.50, Coral 2.50. Average of all 20: 2.46 (−5.8% against fair). Exchanges (before commission): Betfair Exchange 2.58, Smarkets 2.58, Matchbook 2.58.
The match in numbers
Sunderland are 20th of 20 on 4 points from 7 games (goals 6-14); Leeds are 7th on 10 from 7 (goals 9-6).
Sunderland at home: won 1, drawn 0, lost 2, goals 1-4. Leeds away: won 1, drawn 1, lost 1, goals 3-3.
Last five league games, oldest first: Sunderland DLLLL, Leeds DWDLD. Season xG per game: Sunderland 1.51 for, 2.04 against; Leeds 1.38 for, 1.37 against. Our strength rating: Sunderland 1600, Leeds 1679 (the home side gets 60 more).
Prices: our price feed across 20 UK books, Pinnacle and the Betfair Exchange, checked Sat 24 Oct, 13:31:30 BSTSat Oct 24, 8:31:30 AM ETSat 24 Oct, 13:31:30 BST. Table, form, goals and xG come from our match data (league results up to 2026-10-19); the strength rating is our own, built from results only. Team news is not checked for these pages. Prices move: check yours before you bet.