Spurs v Crystal Palace prediction and odds
Not a staked pick and not in our record. This page gives our most likely result with the reasons, the fair price from the sharp market and whether any UK price beats it under our staking rule. Our staked picks are only in this weekend's picks.
No bet. The closest is Tottenham Hotspur to win at 1.65 (William Hill), −2.4% against our fair 1.69. Our rule needs 1.73 or better.
Sharp move on Tottenham Hotspur to win: Pinnacle 1.71 at the open, 1.61 now (shortened 5.9%).
Why we make Spurs favourites
Spurs win at home is our most likely result at 59%. The reasons:
- The sharp marketThe sharp marketThe sharp marketMoney has come for it: Pinnacle opened at 1.71 and is 1.61 now, so the sharpest book has moved toward this result since the market opened.Money has come for it: Pinnacle opened at 1.71 and is 1.61 now, so the sharpest book has moved toward this result since the market opened.Money has come for it: Pinnacle opened at 1.71 and is 1.61 now, so the sharpest book has moved toward this result since the market opened.
- Trending upTrending upTrending upSpurs are getting better, not just luckier: over the last five they average 1.16 xG for and 0.96 against, better than their season figures of 1.06 and 1.35.Spurs are getting better, not just luckier: over the last five they average 1.16 xG for and 0.96 against, better than their season figures of 1.06 and 1.35.Spurs are getting better, not just luckier: over the last five they average 1.16 xG for and 0.96 against, better than their season figures of 1.06 and 1.35.
- Chances created and concededChances created and concededChances created and concededOn chances created and conceded, Spurs average 1.06 xG for and 1.35 against a game this season; Crystal Palace are at 1.35 and 2.11.On chances created and conceded, Spurs average 1.06 xG for and 1.35 against a game this season; Crystal Palace are at 1.35 and 2.11.On chances created and conceded, Spurs average 1.06 xG for and 1.35 against a game this season; Crystal Palace are at 1.35 and 2.11.
What could go wrong
- Spurs have conceded more chances than they have created this season (1.06 xG for, 1.35 against a game). The market rates them anyway, but it is a soft spot.Spurs have conceded more chances than they have created this season (1.06 xG for, 1.35 against a game). The market rates them anyway, but it is a soft spot.Spurs have conceded more chances than they have created this season (1.06 xG for, 1.35 against a game). The market rates them anyway, but it is a soft spot.
- Even at 59%, this misses about 4 times in 10: a draw or a Crystal Palace win both beat it.Even at 59%, this misses about 4 times in 10: a tie or a Crystal Palace win both beat it.Even at 59%, this misses about 4 times in 10: a draw or a Crystal Palace win both beat it.
Our price
UK sportsbook prices, for reference; US sportsbooks price soccer differently. Match result (90 minutes). Chance = average of Pinnacle and Betfair Exchange with the margin removed; fair price = 1 / chance. Best of 17 UK books.
| Selection | Our chance | Fair (decimal) | Best UK price | vs fair | Our rule |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tottenham Hotspur to win | 59% | 1.69 | 1.65 William HillWilliam Hill | −2.4% | Needs 1.73 or better |
| Draw | 22% | 4.53 | 10/3 BetwayBetway | −4.5% | Chance under 30%: not staked |
| Crystal Palace to win | 19% | 5.32 | 4/1 BetVictorBetVictor | −6.1% | Chance under 30%: not staked |
Sharp market move (opening to now, decimal)
| Selection | Pinnacle | Betfair Exchange |
|---|---|---|
| Tottenham Hotspur to win | 1.71 → 1.61 | 1.60 → 1.64 |
| Draw | 3.94 → 4.31 | 3.95 → 4.40 |
| Crystal Palace to win | 4.34 → 4.85 | now 5.40 |
Other UK prices for Tottenham Hotspur to win: Casumo 1.63, Grosvenor 1.62, Unibet 1.62. Average of all 17: 1.60 (−5.2% against fair). Exchanges (before commission): Betfair Exchange 1.63, Smarkets 1.66.
The match in numbers
Spurs are 16th of 20 on 6 points from 7 games (goals 6-10); Crystal Palace are 14th on 7 from 7 (goals 9-17).
Spurs at home: won 1, drawn 1, lost 2, goals 5-6. Crystal Palace away: won 1, drawn 1, lost 2, goals 3-9.
Last five league games, oldest first: Spurs DDLDW, Crystal Palace WLDWL. Season xG per game: Spurs 1.06 for, 1.35 against; Crystal Palace 1.35 for, 2.11 against. Our strength rating: Spurs 1571, Crystal Palace 1616 (the home side gets 60 more).
Prices: our price feed across 17 UK books, Pinnacle and the Betfair Exchange, checked Sat 24 Oct, 13:31:30 BSTSat Oct 24, 8:31:30 AM ETSat 24 Oct, 13:31:30 BST. Table, form, goals and xG come from our match data (league results up to 2026-10-19); the strength rating is our own, built from results only. Team news is not checked for these pages. Prices move: check yours before you bet.