Liverpool v Arsenal prediction and odds
Not a staked pick and not in our record. This page gives our most likely result with the reasons, the fair price from the sharp market and whether any UK price beats it under our staking rule. Our staked picks are only in this weekend's picks.
No bet. The closest is Liverpool to win at 3.20 (BoyleSports), −1.2% against our fair 3.24. Our rule needs 3.31 or better.
Sharp move on Liverpool to win: Pinnacle 3.25 at the open, 3.08 now (shortened 5.2%).
Why we make Arsenal favourites
Arsenal win away is our most likely result at 43%. The reasons:
- Away recordAway recordAway recordArsenal have taken 9 points from 4 away games; Liverpool have 2 from 3 home games. That split matters more than the overall table here.Arsenal have taken 9 points from 4 away games; Liverpool have 2 from 3 home games. That split matters more than the overall table here.Arsenal have taken 9 points from 4 away games; Liverpool have 2 from 3 home games. That split matters more than the overall table here.
- Strength gapStrength gapStrength gapOn our strength rating the gap is 115 points (Arsenal 1861, Liverpool 1746), enough to cover playing away.On our strength rating the gap is 115 points (Arsenal 1861, Liverpool 1746), enough to cover playing away.On our strength rating the gap is 115 points (Arsenal 1861, Liverpool 1746), enough to cover playing away.
- Chances created and concededChances created and concededChances created and concededThe underlying numbers back it. Arsenal: 1.71 xG created, 0.79 allowed per game. Liverpool: 1.56 created, 1.18 allowed.The underlying numbers back it. Arsenal: 1.71 xG created, 0.79 allowed per game. Liverpool: 1.56 created, 1.18 allowed.The underlying numbers back it. Arsenal: 1.71 xG created, 0.79 allowed per game. Liverpool: 1.56 created, 1.18 allowed.
What could go wrong
- The sharp market has gone the other way: Pinnacle opened at 2.12 and is 2.20 now.The sharp market has gone the other way: Pinnacle opened at 2.12 and is 2.20 now.The sharp market has gone the other way: Pinnacle opened at 2.12 and is 2.20 now.
- Even at 43%, this misses about 6 times in 10: a draw or a Liverpool win both beat it.Even at 43%, this misses about 6 times in 10: a tie or a Liverpool win both beat it.Even at 43%, this misses about 6 times in 10: a draw or a Liverpool win both beat it.
Our price
UK sportsbook prices, for reference; US sportsbooks price soccer differently. Match result (90 minutes). Chance = average of Pinnacle and Betfair Exchange with the margin removed; fair price = 1 / chance. Best of 17 UK books.
| Selection | Our chance | Fair (decimal) | Best UK price | vs fair | Our rule |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liverpool to win | 31% | 3.24 | 3.20 BoyleSportsBoyleSports | −1.2% | Needs 3.31 or better |
| Draw | 26% | 3.84 | 3.80 CasumoCasumo | −1.1% | Chance under 30%: not staked |
| Arsenal to win | 43% | 2.32 | 6/5 William HillWilliam Hill | −5.2% | Needs 2.37 or better |
Sharp market move (opening to now, decimal)
| Selection | Pinnacle | Betfair Exchange |
|---|---|---|
| Liverpool to win | 3.25 → 3.08 | 3.25 → 3.20 |
| Draw | 3.64 → 3.65 | 3.80 → 3.80 |
| Arsenal to win | 2.12 → 2.20 | 2.22 → 2.30 |
Other UK prices for Liverpool to win: Bet365 3.20, 888sport 3.10, BetVictor 3.10. Average of all 17: 3.08 (−4.7% against fair). Exchanges (before commission): Betfair Exchange 3.15, Smarkets 3.10.
The match in numbers
Liverpool are 5th of 20 on 12 points from 7 games (goals 9-8); Arsenal are 2nd on 18 from 7 (goals 11-5).
Liverpool at home: won 0, drawn 2, lost 1, goals 2-5. Arsenal away: won 3, drawn 0, lost 1, goals 4-3.
Last five league games, oldest first: Liverpool WDWLW, Arsenal WWLWW. Season xG per game: Liverpool 1.56 for, 1.18 against; Arsenal 1.71 for, 0.79 against. Our strength rating: Liverpool 1746, Arsenal 1861 (the home side gets 60 more).
Prices: our price feed across 17 UK books, Pinnacle and the Betfair Exchange, checked Sat 24 Oct, 13:31:30 BSTSat Oct 24, 8:31:30 AM ETSat 24 Oct, 13:31:30 BST. Table, form, goals and xG come from our match data (league results up to 2026-10-19); the strength rating is our own, built from results only. Team news is not checked for these pages. Prices move: check yours before you bet.