Aston Villa v Fulham prediction and odds
Not a staked pick and not in our record. This page gives our most likely result with the reasons, the fair price from the sharp market and whether any UK price beats it under our staking rule. Our staked picks are only in this weekend's picks.
No bet. The closest is Aston Villa to win at 2.05 (888sport), −4.2% against our fair 2.14. Our rule needs 2.19 or better.
Sharp move on Aston Villa to win: Pinnacle 2.03 at the open, 2.05 now (no real move).
Why we make Aston Villa favourites
Aston Villa win at home is our most likely result at 47%. The reasons:
- Trending upTrending upTrending upAston Villa are getting better, not just luckier: over the last five they average 1.55 xG for and 1.29 against, better than their season figures of 1.19 and 1.61.Aston Villa are getting better, not just luckier: over the last five they average 1.55 xG for and 1.29 against, better than their season figures of 1.19 and 1.61.Aston Villa are getting better, not just luckier: over the last five they average 1.55 xG for and 1.29 against, better than their season figures of 1.19 and 1.61.
- Strength gapStrength gapStrength gapOur results-based strength rating has Aston Villa on 1703 and Fulham on 1614: a 89-point gap before home advantage is counted.Our results-based strength rating has Aston Villa on 1703 and Fulham on 1614: a 89-point gap before home advantage is counted.Our results-based strength rating has Aston Villa on 1703 and Fulham on 1614: a 89-point gap before home advantage is counted.
- Recent formRecent formRecent formOver the last five league games Aston Villa have won 2, drawn 2, lost 1; Fulham have won 1, drawn 2, lost 2, with 6 goals conceded.Over the last five league games Aston Villa have won 2, tied 2, lost 1; Fulham have won 1, tied 2, lost 2, with 6 goals conceded.Over the last five league games Aston Villa have won 2, drawn 2, lost 1; Fulham have won 1, drawn 2, lost 2, with 6 goals conceded.
- The tableThe tableThe tableAston Villa are 12th of 20 on 8 points from 7; Fulham are 18th on 5 from 7.Aston Villa are 12th of 20 on 8 points from 7; Fulham are 18th on 5 from 7.Aston Villa are 12th of 20 on 8 points from 7; Fulham are 18th on 5 from 7.
What could go wrong
- Aston Villa have conceded more chances than they have created this season (1.19 xG for, 1.61 against a game). The market rates them anyway, but it is a soft spot.Aston Villa have conceded more chances than they have created this season (1.19 xG for, 1.61 against a game). The market rates them anyway, but it is a soft spot.Aston Villa have conceded more chances than they have created this season (1.19 xG for, 1.61 against a game). The market rates them anyway, but it is a soft spot.
- Even at 47%, this misses about 5 times in 10: a draw or a Fulham win both beat it.Even at 47%, this misses about 5 times in 10: a tie or a Fulham win both beat it.Even at 47%, this misses about 5 times in 10: a draw or a Fulham win both beat it.
Our price
UK sportsbook prices, for reference; US sportsbooks price soccer differently. Match result (90 minutes). Chance = average of Pinnacle and Betfair Exchange with the margin removed; fair price = 1 / chance. Best of 17 UK books.
| Selection | Our chance | Fair (decimal) | Best UK price | vs fair | Our rule |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aston Villa to win | 47% | 2.14 | 21/20 888sport888sport | −4.2% | Needs 2.19 or better |
| Draw | 26% | 3.88 | 3.70 CasumoCasumo | −4.6% | Chance under 30%: not staked |
| Fulham to win | 28% | 3.64 | 5/2 CasumoCasumo | −3.8% | Chance under 30%: not staked |
Sharp market move (opening to now, decimal)
| Selection | Pinnacle | Betfair Exchange |
|---|---|---|
| Aston Villa to win | 2.03 → 2.05 | 1.99 → 2.04 |
| Draw | 3.60 → 3.66 | 3.70 → 3.75 |
| Fulham to win | 3.38 → 3.40 | 3.60 → 3.55 |
Other UK prices for Aston Villa to win: BetVictor 2.05, Sky Bet 2.05, Unibet 2.05. Average of all 17: 2.02 (−5.4% against fair). Exchanges (before commission): Betfair Exchange 2.00, Smarkets 1.98.
The match in numbers
Aston Villa are 12th of 20 on 8 points from 7 games (goals 7-11); Fulham are 18th on 5 from 7 (goals 7-10).
Aston Villa at home: won 0, drawn 1, lost 2, goals 3-5. Fulham away: won 0, drawn 1, lost 2, goals 1-3.
Last five league games, oldest first: Aston Villa DLWDW, Fulham LDDLW. Season xG per game: Aston Villa 1.19 for, 1.61 against; Fulham 1.56 for, 1.41 against. Our strength rating: Aston Villa 1703, Fulham 1614 (the home side gets 60 more).
Prices: our price feed across 17 UK books, Pinnacle and the Betfair Exchange, checked Sat 24 Oct, 13:31:30 BSTSat Oct 24, 8:31:30 AM ETSat 24 Oct, 13:31:30 BST. Table, form, goals and xG come from our match data (league results up to 2026-10-19); the strength rating is our own, built from results only. Team news is not checked for these pages. Prices move: check yours before you bet.