Premier League picks

Our Premier League picks and big-match previews, each one on the record.

Acca of the WeekendPending

Acca of the Weekend: goals lines across four games

Four goals legs, each priced at or above our model's fair price at Bet365. Arsenal v Everton under 2.5: Arsenal have scored 8 in six and Everton draw a lot. Coventry v Fulham under 2.5: 11 goals between them in their last six combined. Hull v Brentford under 2.5: Hull have scored 6 in six. Sunderland v Leeds over 2.5: Sunderland have conceded 12 in six. Most accas lose. Our model gives all four landing about a 7% chance, and the sharp market rates it lower, nearer 4%.

1
Under 2.5Arsenal v Everton · Sat 15:00 BSTSat 10:00a ETSat 15:00 BST
Evens
2
Under 2.5Coventry v Fulham · Sat 15:00 BSTSat 10:00a ETSat 15:00 BST
11/10
3
Under 2.5Hull v Brentford · Sun 14:00 GMTSun 10:00a ETSun 14:00 GMT
6/5
4
Over 2.5Sunderland v Leeds · Sun 16:30 GMTSun 12:30p ETSun 16:30 GMT
11/10

Combined37/2

Stake 0.5u£5 returns £97.00$5 pays $97.005 returns 97.00

Four legs, four ways to lose. Keep it small.bet365 price as of Fri 14:40 BSTFri 9:40a ETFri 14:40 BST · logged Fri 14:44 BSTFri 9:44a ETFri 14:44 BST · #PA-20261023-005

Single · Sat 17:30 BSTSat 12:30p ETSat 17:30 BST Pending

Value pick · higher risk

Chelsea v Tottenham

Match resultTottenham

7/2

Our view is that Spurs at 7/2 is a fair price or a touch better. Chelsea have scored 14 in their last six but conceded 11 and allowed 5.8 shots on target a game. Spurs have lost only two of their last six and give up 3.0 shots on target a game. The sharp market makes Spurs about a 22% chance and our model about 27%, so the price is on our side.

Stake 1u£10 returns £45.00$10 pays $45.0010 returns 45.00

Logged Fri 14:44 BSTFri 9:44a ETFri 14:44 BST · #PA-20261023-001

Single · Sun 14:00 GMTSun 10:00a ETSun 14:00 GMT Pending

Value pick · higher risk

Liverpool v Brighton

Match resultBrighton

12/5

Our pick is Brighton at 12/5. They've won four of their last five, scoring 15 and conceding none in those wins, and average 6.0 shots on target a game. Liverpool have been solid but not free-scoring: 7 goals in their last six. The market makes Brighton about a 30% chance; we make it higher.

Stake 1u£10 returns £34.00$10 pays $34.0010 returns 34.00

Logged Fri 14:44 BSTFri 9:44a ETFri 14:44 BST · #PA-20261023-002

Single · Sat 15:00 BSTSat 10:00a ETSat 15:00 BST Pending

Value pick · higher risk

Arsenal v Everton

Match resultDraw

18/5

Our view is the draw at 18/5. Everton have drawn four of their last six and lost only one. Arsenal win a lot but by small margins: 8 goals in six games, all five wins by one or two goals. The sharp market puts the draw at about 22%; at 18/5 the price is a little better than that.

Stake 1u£10 returns £46.00$10 pays $46.0010 returns 46.00

Logged Fri 14:44 BSTFri 9:44a ETFri 14:44 BST · #PA-20261023-003

Single · Sat 15:00 BSTSat 10:00a ETSat 15:00 BST Pending

Value pick · higher risk

Coventry v Fulham

Match resultDraw

11/4

Our pick is the draw at 11/4. Coventry have scored 6 in their last six and Fulham 5. Our model has this as close to a coin flip between the sides, and a draw at about 27%. The sharp market agrees at about 27%, and 11/4 is the best UK price we found.

Stake 1u£10 returns £37.50$10 pays $37.5010 returns 37.50

Logged Fri 14:44 BSTFri 9:44a ETFri 14:44 BST · #PA-20261023-004

18+Picks are opinions, not advice, and never a sure thing. Most accas lose, because bookie margins multiply with every leg. Only stake what you can afford to lose and set a deposit limit with your bookie. Help: BeGambleAware.org or 0808 8020 133.

21+Picks are opinions, not advice, and never a sure thing. Most parlays lose, because sportsbook margins multiply with every leg. Sports betting is only legal in some states. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER, or visit ncpgambling.org.

18+Picks are opinions, not advice, and never a sure thing. Most accas lose, because bookie margins multiply with every leg. Only bet where it is legal for you and stake what you can afford to lose. Free support worldwide: GamblingTherapy.org.