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© 2026 PicksArena. Data sourced from 57,000+ matches across 51 leagues (2021–2026). For analytical purposes only — not betting advice.

Market Efficiency Heatmap

Compare actual hit rates vs bookmaker implied probability across 51 leagues and every 0.2 odds band. Red = market overprices the outcome. Green = market underprices it.

League1.0-1.21.2-1.41.4-1.61.6-1.81.8-2.02.0-2.22.2-2.42.4-2.62.6-2.82.8-3.03.0-3.23.2-3.43.4-3.6
Championship
-4
+6
-3
-0
+0
-2
+9
+1
Major League Soccer
+2
+2
+3
-2
+3
La Liga 2
+7
+9
-0
+2
-0
+0
-1
+4
+4
Liga Profesional de Fútbol
+10
+16
+1
-3
-1
-0
-4
+0
-3
-0
Serie B
+1
-3
-1
-0
+3
-1
+10
Premier League
+3
+1
-2
+3
+3
+4
+1
Europa Conference League
-7
-2
-2
+1
-1
+1
-0
+10
La Liga
-6
+1
+4
+4
-2
-2
-3
+1
-3
-2
Serie A (Brazil)
-3
+5
+2
+0
+6
-4
-2
+13
Ligue 2
-3
+1
+0
+4
+2
-8
+5
-1
Super Lig
+10
+2
+2
-4
-0
+5
-3
Liga MX
+4
+4
-0
-3
+3
+8
-3
Ligue 1
+0
+3
+0
+5
-3
-3
-7
Serie A (Italy)
+2
-2
+3
+2
-3
-4
+5
+2
Eredivisie
+0
-0
+3
+0
-1
-10
2. Bundesliga
+1
+1
+4
+9
-10
Bundesliga
+3
+6
+1
-3
+2
-2
Liga Portugal
+8
-2
+11
-0
-1
-2
+6
+2
Ekstraklasa
+1
+2
+3
-1
-3
-3
-19
Superliga (Romania)
+6
+4
+3
+2
-4
+3
+2
-0
-5
FA Cup
-5
+2
+1
+1
+11
+8
Allsvenskan
+4
-1
-0
-3
+3
-9
Eliteserien
+9
+2
+3
+2
-0
+18
Premiership
-2
+1
+1
+4
+6
-1
+6
-1
Champions League
+7
-0
-0
+4
-3
-0
-13
Europa League
-9
+2
-3
+5
+7
Admiral Bundesliga
-10
+2
-4
+3
+8
Super League (Switzerland)
-1
-6
+2
+7
Superliga (Denmark)
+4
-2
+3
-4
-2
Veikkausliiga
+6
+5
+4
+5
+6
-3
Copa Libertadores
-5
-10
+6
+2
-6
-2
+4
-9
Copa Sudamericana
-2
-7
-4
-1
+4
+1
-2
Copa do Brasil
-3
+4
+1
-2
-4
Serie A
-9
-4
+4
+3
-2
+22
Copa Del Rey
-6
+11
+4
+13
+11
+0
Coupe de France
+8
+2
+16
+16
+21
Carabao Cup
+11
0
+3
+4
Superliga
-2
+11
-1
DFB Pokal
+6
+4
-7
Super League
+7
-4
-10
Copa Argentina
-4
Coppa Italia
+8
+21
+17
+14
Leagues Cup
Pro League
Chance Liga
Liga 1
Superettan
First Division
Premier Division
Eerste Divisie
Europa Super Cup
Market overprices (bad for laying)
Market underprices (good for laying)

Minimum 30 matches per cell. Grey cells = insufficient data.