PicksArena
HeatmapOdds vs RealityBacktestLeaguesMatches
Explore Data

Tools

  • Market Heatmap
  • Odds vs Reality
  • Backtesting

Leagues

  • Premier League
  • Bundesliga
  • La Liga
  • All Leagues →

Content

  • Today's Matches

PicksArena

  • About
  • Methodology

© 2026 PicksArena. Data sourced from 57,000+ matches across 51 leagues (2021–2026). For analytical purposes only — not betting advice.

← All Leagues

Premier League

1,786 matches | 2021-08-13 → 2026-03-01

Avg Goals

2.97

Over 2.5 Rate

56.6%

Home Win Rate

44.4%

Draw Rate

23.6%

Lay Over 2.5 — Odds Band Breakdown

Actual hit rate vs implied probability by odds band. Green = market underprices (opportunity). Red = market overprices.

Odds BandMatchesHit RateImplied ProbGap
1.2-1.48777%73.7%+3.3%
1.4-1.633966.1%65.6%+0.5%
1.6-1.845056%58.3%-2.3%
1.8-2.044154.9%52.3%+2.6%
2.0-2.223850.4%47.6%+2.8%
2.2-2.415347.7%43.6%+4.1%
2.4-2.65940.7%40.1%+0.6%

Lay Under 2.5 — Odds Band Breakdown

Actual hit rate vs implied probability by odds band. Green = market underprices (opportunity). Red = market overprices.

Odds BandMatchesHit RateImplied ProbGap
1.6-1.815754.1%57.5%-3.4%
1.8-2.026053.5%52.3%+1.2%
2.0-2.240045.2%47.3%-2.1%
2.2-2.428344.2%43.4%+0.8%
2.4-2.620943.5%40%+3.5%
2.6-2.815635.3%36.9%-1.6%
2.8-3.09534.7%34.4%+0.3%
3.0-3.26131.1%32.1%-1%
3.2-3.46235.5%30.2%+5.3%

Explore this league across all markets in our interactive tools

View HeatmapBacktest