1,780 matches | 2021-08-13 → 2026-02-12
Avg Goals
2.94
Over 2.5 Rate
56.5%
Home Win Rate
44.3%
Draw Rate
23.6%
Actual hit rate vs implied probability by odds band. Green = market underprices (opportunity). Red = market overprices.
| Odds Band | Matches | Hit Rate | Implied Prob | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.2-1.4 | 58 | 79.3% | 74.9% | +4.4% |
| 1.4-1.6 | 75 | 72% | 65.7% | +6.3% |
| 1.6-1.8 | 103 | 57.3% | 58.3% | -1% |
| 1.8-2.0 | 80 | 45% | 52.1% | -7.1% |
| 2.0-2.2 | 88 | 50% | 47.4% | +2.6% |
| 2.2-2.4 | 95 | 47.4% | 43.2% | +4.2% |
| 2.4-2.6 | 84 | 39.3% | 39.9% | -0.6% |
| 2.6-2.8 | 78 | 42.3% | 36.6% | +5.7% |
| 2.8-3.0 | 67 | 25.4% | 34.3% | -8.9% |
| 3.0-3.2 | 69 | 37.7% | 32% | +5.7% |
| 3.2-3.4 | 70 | 27.1% | 30.2% | -3.1% |
Actual hit rate vs implied probability by odds band. Green = market underprices (opportunity). Red = market overprices.
| Odds Band | Matches | Hit Rate | Implied Prob | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3.2-3.4 | 72 | 22.2% | 30% | -7.8% |
| 3.4-3.6 | 76 | 27.6% | 28.9% | -1.3% |
Actual hit rate vs implied probability by odds band. Green = market underprices (opportunity). Red = market overprices.
| Odds Band | Matches | Hit Rate | Implied Prob | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.0-1.2 | 56 | 89.3% | 85.3% | +4% |
| 1.2-1.4 | 158 | 75.3% | 75.7% | -0.4% |
| 1.4-1.6 | 160 | 63.7% | 65.7% | -2% |
| 1.6-1.8 | 174 | 58.6% | 58.2% | +0.4% |
| 1.8-2.0 | 141 | 56.7% | 52.1% | +4.6% |
| 2.0-2.2 | 130 | 45.4% | 47.1% | -1.7% |
| 2.2-2.4 | 101 | 47.5% | 43.3% | +4.2% |
| 2.4-2.6 | 110 | 40% | 39.7% | +0.3% |
| 2.6-2.8 | 74 | 45.9% | 36.8% | +9.1% |
| 2.8-3.0 | 63 | 36.5% | 34.5% | +2% |
| 3.0-3.2 | 80 | 31.2% | 32% | -0.8% |
| 3.2-3.4 | 57 | 24.6% | 30.1% | -5.5% |
| 3.4-3.6 | 22 | 36.4% | 28.8% | +7.6% |
Actual hit rate vs implied probability by odds band. Green = market underprices (opportunity). Red = market overprices.
| Odds Band | Matches | Hit Rate | Implied Prob | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.2-1.4 | 87 | 77% | 73.7% | +3.3% |
| 1.4-1.6 | 339 | 66.1% | 65.6% | +0.5% |
| 1.6-1.8 | 447 | 56.2% | 58.3% | -2.1% |
| 1.8-2.0 | 440 | 55% | 52.3% | +2.7% |
| 2.0-2.2 | 237 | 50.6% | 47.6% | +3% |
| 2.2-2.4 | 153 | 47.7% | 43.6% | +4.1% |
| 2.4-2.6 | 59 | 40.7% | 40.1% | +0.6% |
Actual hit rate vs implied probability by odds band. Green = market underprices (opportunity). Red = market overprices.
| Odds Band | Matches | Hit Rate | Implied Prob | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.6-1.8 | 156 | 53.8% | 57.4% | -3.6% |
| 1.8-2.0 | 260 | 53.5% | 52.3% | +1.2% |
| 2.0-2.2 | 399 | 45.1% | 47.3% | -2.2% |
| 2.2-2.4 | 282 | 44.3% | 43.4% | +0.9% |
| 2.4-2.6 | 209 | 43.5% | 40% | +3.5% |
| 2.6-2.8 | 156 | 35.3% | 36.9% | -1.6% |
| 2.8-3.0 | 95 | 34.7% | 34.4% | +0.3% |
| 3.0-3.2 | 61 | 31.1% | 32.1% | -1% |
| 3.2-3.4 | 62 | 35.5% | 30.2% | +5.3% |
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