1,416 matches | 2021-08-13 → 2026-03-01
Avg Goals
3.16
Over 2.5 Rate
60.3%
Home Win Rate
44.2%
Draw Rate
24.8%
Actual hit rate vs implied probability by odds band. Green = market underprices (opportunity). Red = market overprices.
| Odds Band | Matches | Hit Rate | Implied Prob | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.2-1.4 | 143 | 78.3% | 74.9% | +3.4% |
| 1.4-1.6 | 325 | 71.7% | 65.6% | +6.1% |
| 1.6-1.8 | 440 | 59.5% | 58.6% | +0.9% |
| 1.8-2.0 | 294 | 50% | 52.6% | -2.6% |
| 2.0-2.2 | 124 | 49.2% | 47.7% | +1.5% |
| 2.2-2.4 | 57 | 42.1% | 43.9% | -1.8% |
Actual hit rate vs implied probability by odds band. Green = market underprices (opportunity). Red = market overprices.
| Odds Band | Matches | Hit Rate | Implied Prob | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.6-1.8 | 40 | 67.5% | 57.3% | +10.2% |
| 1.8-2.0 | 120 | 52.5% | 52.4% | +0.1% |
| 2.0-2.2 | 237 | 48.9% | 47.3% | +1.6% |
| 2.2-2.4 | 257 | 45.5% | 43.5% | +2% |
| 2.4-2.6 | 211 | 37.9% | 39.7% | -1.8% |
| 2.6-2.8 | 160 | 30.6% | 37% | -6.4% |
| 2.8-3.0 | 109 | 33.9% | 34.4% | -0.5% |
| 3.0-3.2 | 68 | 25% | 32.1% | -7.1% |
| 3.2-3.4 | 44 | 27.3% | 30.1% | -2.8% |
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