1,750 matches | 2021-08-13 → 2026-03-01
Avg Goals
2.57
Over 2.5 Rate
46.8%
Home Win Rate
45%
Draw Rate
26.5%
Actual hit rate vs implied probability by odds band. Green = market underprices (opportunity). Red = market overprices.
| Odds Band | Matches | Hit Rate | Implied Prob | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.2-1.4 | 46 | 67.4% | 73.1% | -5.7% |
| 1.4-1.6 | 117 | 66.7% | 65.5% | +1.2% |
| 1.6-1.8 | 193 | 62.2% | 58.1% | +4.1% |
| 1.8-2.0 | 259 | 56% | 52.2% | +3.8% |
| 2.0-2.2 | 248 | 46% | 47.5% | -1.5% |
| 2.2-2.4 | 309 | 41.1% | 43.3% | -2.2% |
| 2.4-2.6 | 214 | 37.4% | 39.9% | -2.5% |
| 2.6-2.8 | 154 | 37.7% | 36.9% | +0.8% |
| 2.8-3.0 | 98 | 31.6% | 34.5% | -2.9% |
| 3.0-3.2 | 59 | 30.5% | 32% | -1.5% |
Actual hit rate vs implied probability by odds band. Green = market underprices (opportunity). Red = market overprices.
| Odds Band | Matches | Hit Rate | Implied Prob | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.2-1.4 | 25 | 84% | 72.3% | +11.7% |
| 1.4-1.6 | 270 | 65.6% | 65.1% | +0.5% |
| 1.6-1.8 | 495 | 60.8% | 58.3% | +2.5% |
| 1.8-2.0 | 329 | 54.4% | 52.6% | +1.8% |
| 2.0-2.2 | 227 | 47.6% | 47.6% | 0% |
| 2.2-2.4 | 132 | 36.4% | 43.5% | -7.1% |
| 2.4-2.6 | 80 | 35% | 40.2% | -5.2% |
| 2.6-2.8 | 60 | 36.7% | 37.1% | -0.4% |
| 2.8-3.0 | 41 | 39% | 34.2% | +4.8% |
| 3.0-3.2 | 26 | 23.1% | 32% | -8.9% |
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