Jagiellonia Białystok 2-2 Legia Warszawa

Ekstraklasa · Sunday, 1 March 2026 · 13:45

Jagiellonia Białystok

#1 · 38pts

2-2

FTDraw

Legia Warszawa

#16 · 25pts

4 goals · Over 2.5BTTS: YesHT: 2-1

Market Verdict

2/3 correct

Did the market get this match right? Here's how odds implied probabilities compared to the actual outcome.

Over/Under 2.5Market Correct

Over 2.5(4 goals)

Market favored Over 2.5

Full-Time ResultMarket Wrong

Draw

Market favored Home Win — the actual result was Draw

Both Teams to ScoreMarket Correct

Yes

Market favored Yes

Match Statistics

Jagiellonia BiałystokMatch StatsLegia Warszawa

57%Possession43%

10Total Shots17

5Shots on Target1

4Corners7

14Fouls14

Odds

Full-Time Result

Home2.15

Draw3.4

Away3

Over / Under 2.5

Over1.8

Under2

Both Teams to Score

Yes1.7

No2.05

Corners O/U 9.5

Over1.77

Under1.95

Historical Odds Analysis

How often did this odds band produce Over/Under across all historical matches in Ekstraklasa?

Over 2.5band 1.8-2.0 · 374 matches

+2.7%

Implied probability52.1%

Actual hit rate54.8%

This outcome hits 2.7% more often than the odds suggest — the market may be underpricing over 2.5 in this band.

Under 2.5band 2.0-2.2 · 386 matches

-1.3%

Implied probability47.7%

Actual hit rate46.4%

This outcome hits 1.3% less often than the odds suggest — the market may be overpricing under 2.5 in this band.

Recent Form

Jagiellonia Białystok (Home)

DWDLD

Date	Opponent	V	Score	Res
2026-03-01	Legia Warszawa	H	2-2	D
2026-02-26	Fiorentina	A	2-4	W
2026-02-22	Radomiak Radom	H	1-1	D
2026-02-19	Fiorentina	H	0-3	L

League Table Context