1,289 matches | 2021-07-15 → 2026-03-01
Avg Goals
2.42
Over 2.5 Rate
42.3%
Home Win Rate
43%
Draw Rate
28.2%
Actual hit rate vs implied probability by odds band. Green = market underprices (opportunity). Red = market overprices.
| Odds Band | Matches | Hit Rate | Implied Prob | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.6-1.8 | 33 | 63.6% | 57.3% | +6.3% |
| 1.8-2.0 | 101 | 56.4% | 52.2% | +4.2% |
| 2.0-2.2 | 184 | 50% | 47.1% | +2.9% |
| 2.2-2.4 | 226 | 45.1% | 43.3% | +1.8% |
| 2.4-2.6 | 226 | 36.3% | 40% | -3.7% |
| 2.6-2.8 | 209 | 40.2% | 37% | +3.2% |
| 2.8-3.0 | 153 | 36.6% | 34.5% | +2.1% |
| 3.0-3.2 | 75 | 32% | 32.3% | -0.3% |
| 3.2-3.4 | 43 | 25.6% | 30.2% | -4.6% |
Actual hit rate vs implied probability by odds band. Green = market underprices (opportunity). Red = market overprices.
| Odds Band | Matches | Hit Rate | Implied Prob | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.4-1.6 | 379 | 65.7% | 64.9% | +0.8% |
| 1.6-1.8 | 450 | 60.4% | 58.4% | +2% |
| 1.8-2.0 | 241 | 51.5% | 52.6% | -1.1% |
| 2.0-2.2 | 118 | 46.6% | 47.7% | -1.1% |
| 2.2-2.4 | 43 | 34.9% | 44% | -9.1% |
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