1,606 matches | 2021-08-13 → 2026-03-01
Avg Goals
2.89
Over 2.5 Rate
54.2%
Home Win Rate
45.2%
Draw Rate
25%
Actual hit rate vs implied probability by odds band. Green = market underprices (opportunity). Red = market overprices.
| Odds Band | Matches | Hit Rate | Implied Prob | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.2-1.4 | 54 | 83.3% | 73.3% | +10% |
| 1.4-1.6 | 200 | 67.5% | 65.8% | +1.7% |
| 1.6-1.8 | 383 | 60.1% | 58.1% | +2% |
| 1.8-2.0 | 466 | 48.1% | 52.1% | -4% |
| 2.0-2.2 | 316 | 47.5% | 47.7% | -0.2% |
| 2.2-2.4 | 127 | 48% | 43.5% | +4.5% |
| 2.4-2.6 | 35 | 37.1% | 40.3% | -3.2% |
Actual hit rate vs implied probability by odds band. Green = market underprices (opportunity). Red = market overprices.
| Odds Band | Matches | Hit Rate | Implied Prob | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.6-1.8 | 136 | 55.1% | 57.2% | -2.1% |
| 1.8-2.0 | 288 | 52.1% | 51.9% | +0.2% |
| 2.0-2.2 | 465 | 51.6% | 47.4% | +4.2% |
| 2.2-2.4 | 235 | 44.7% | 43.4% | +1.3% |
| 2.4-2.6 | 175 | 44.6% | 40% | +4.6% |
| 2.6-2.8 | 89 | 29.2% | 37% | -7.8% |
| 2.8-3.0 | 54 | 27.8% | 34.3% | -6.5% |
| 3.0-3.2 | 59 | 30.5% | 32.1% | -1.6% |
| 3.2-3.4 | 27 | 40.7% | 30.3% | +10.4% |
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