1,806 matches | 2021-08-20 → 2026-02-15
Avg Goals
2.45
Over 2.5 Rate
44.5%
Home Win Rate
40.3%
Draw Rate
31.7%
Actual hit rate vs implied probability by odds band. Green = market underprices (opportunity). Red = market overprices.
| Odds Band | Matches | Hit Rate | Implied Prob | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.8-2.0 | 36 | 50% | 52.1% | -2.1% |
| 2.0-2.2 | 56 | 48.2% | 47.1% | +1.1% |
| 2.2-2.4 | 74 | 51.4% | 43.1% | +8.3% |
| 2.4-2.6 | 100 | 42% | 39.6% | +2.4% |
| 2.6-2.8 | 108 | 38.9% | 36.9% | +2% |
| 2.8-3.0 | 104 | 35.6% | 34.2% | +1.4% |
| 3.0-3.2 | 116 | 29.3% | 32% | -2.7% |
| 3.2-3.4 | 99 | 30.3% | 30.1% | +0.2% |
| 3.4-3.6 | 44 | 20.5% | 28.8% | -8.3% |
Actual hit rate vs implied probability by odds band. Green = market underprices (opportunity). Red = market overprices.
| Odds Band | Matches | Hit Rate | Implied Prob | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2.8-3.0 | 65 | 32.3% | 33.7% | -1.4% |
| 3.0-3.2 | 376 | 36.7% | 31.8% | +4.9% |
| 3.2-3.4 | 554 | 35.2% | 30.2% | +5% |
| 3.4-3.6 | 186 | 31.2% | 29% | +2.2% |
Actual hit rate vs implied probability by odds band. Green = market underprices (opportunity). Red = market overprices.
| Odds Band | Matches | Hit Rate | Implied Prob | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.4-1.6 | 71 | 76.1% | 64.8% | +11.3% |
| 1.6-1.8 | 167 | 61.7% | 58.1% | +3.6% |
| 1.8-2.0 | 200 | 51.5% | 51.9% | -0.4% |
| 2.0-2.2 | 227 | 44.9% | 47.2% | -2.3% |
| 2.2-2.4 | 221 | 43.4% | 43.1% | +0.3% |
| 2.4-2.6 | 213 | 37.6% | 39.7% | -2.1% |
| 2.6-2.8 | 155 | 33.5% | 36.8% | -3.3% |
| 2.8-3.0 | 111 | 27.9% | 34.3% | -6.4% |
| 3.0-3.2 | 83 | 27.7% | 32.1% | -4.4% |
| 3.2-3.4 | 81 | 28.4% | 30.1% | -1.7% |
| 3.4-3.6 | 34 | 29.4% | 28.9% | +0.5% |
Actual hit rate vs implied probability by odds band. Green = market underprices (opportunity). Red = market overprices.
| Odds Band | Matches | Hit Rate | Implied Prob | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.6-1.8 | 59 | 57.6% | 57.1% | +0.5% |
| 1.8-2.0 | 167 | 48.5% | 51.9% | -3.4% |
| 2.0-2.2 | 474 | 46.4% | 47.2% | -0.8% |
| 2.2-2.4 | 487 | 42.9% | 43.3% | -0.4% |
| 2.4-2.6 | 353 | 42.8% | 40% | +2.8% |
| 2.6-2.8 | 163 | 36.2% | 37% | -0.8% |
| 2.8-3.0 | 58 | 44.8% | 34.4% | +10.4% |
| 3.0-3.2 | 20 | 40% | 32.4% | +7.6% |
Actual hit rate vs implied probability by odds band. Green = market underprices (opportunity). Red = market overprices.
| Odds Band | Matches | Hit Rate | Implied Prob | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.4-1.6 | 183 | 59.6% | 64.2% | -4.6% |
| 1.6-1.8 | 827 | 58% | 58.1% | -0.1% |
| 1.8-2.0 | 511 | 53.8% | 52.4% | +1.4% |
| 2.0-2.2 | 192 | 52.1% | 47.9% | +4.2% |
| 2.2-2.4 | 60 | 43.3% | 43.7% | -0.4% |
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