1,770 matches | 2021-08-21 → 2026-02-16
Avg Goals
2.62
Over 2.5 Rate
49.3%
Home Win Rate
40.2%
Draw Rate
27.6%
Actual hit rate vs implied probability by odds band. Green = market underprices (opportunity). Red = market overprices.
| Odds Band | Matches | Hit Rate | Implied Prob | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.2-1.4 | 29 | 82.8% | 74% | +8.8% |
| 1.4-1.6 | 72 | 72.2% | 65.9% | +6.3% |
| 1.6-1.8 | 104 | 64.4% | 58.2% | +6.2% |
| 1.8-2.0 | 96 | 62.5% | 52.3% | +10.2% |
| 2.0-2.2 | 94 | 54.3% | 47% | +7.3% |
| 2.2-2.4 | 83 | 47% | 43.2% | +3.8% |
| 2.4-2.6 | 73 | 41.1% | 39.8% | +1.3% |
| 2.6-2.8 | 69 | 40.6% | 36.9% | +3.7% |
| 2.8-3.0 | 82 | 29.3% | 34.2% | -4.9% |
| 3.0-3.2 | 64 | 29.7% | 31.9% | -2.2% |
| 3.2-3.4 | 60 | 31.7% | 30.1% | +1.6% |
| 3.4-3.6 | 21 | 33.3% | 28.9% | +4.4% |
Actual hit rate vs implied probability by odds band. Green = market underprices (opportunity). Red = market overprices.
| Odds Band | Matches | Hit Rate | Implied Prob | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3.0-3.2 | 118 | 32.2% | 31.9% | +0.3% |
| 3.2-3.4 | 244 | 34.8% | 30% | +4.8% |
| 3.4-3.6 | 120 | 30.8% | 28.9% | +1.9% |
Actual hit rate vs implied probability by odds band. Green = market underprices (opportunity). Red = market overprices.
| Odds Band | Matches | Hit Rate | Implied Prob | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.0-1.2 | 23 | 87% | 84.4% | +2.6% |
| 1.2-1.4 | 139 | 72.7% | 74.7% | -2% |
| 1.4-1.6 | 165 | 66.1% | 66% | +0.1% |
| 1.6-1.8 | 162 | 53.7% | 58.2% | -4.5% |
| 1.8-2.0 | 152 | 51.3% | 52.3% | -1% |
| 2.0-2.2 | 119 | 37.8% | 47.1% | -9.3% |
| 2.2-2.4 | 125 | 52.8% | 43.2% | +9.6% |
| 2.4-2.6 | 102 | 36.3% | 39.7% | -3.4% |
| 2.6-2.8 | 77 | 32.5% | 36.9% | -4.4% |
| 2.8-3.0 | 78 | 38.5% | 34.3% | +4.2% |
| 3.0-3.2 | 67 | 23.9% | 32% | -8.1% |
| 3.2-3.4 | 53 | 28.3% | 30.1% | -1.8% |
Actual hit rate vs implied probability by odds band. Green = market underprices (opportunity). Red = market overprices.
| Odds Band | Matches | Hit Rate | Implied Prob | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.4-1.6 | 88 | 67% | 65.1% | +1.9% |
| 1.6-1.8 | 322 | 56.8% | 57.9% | -1.1% |
| 1.8-2.0 | 391 | 53.5% | 52.2% | +1.3% |
| 2.0-2.2 | 346 | 47.4% | 47.4% | 0% |
| 2.2-2.4 | 294 | 40.8% | 43.4% | -2.6% |
| 2.4-2.6 | 167 | 38.3% | 40% | -1.7% |
| 2.6-2.8 | 79 | 43% | 37% | +6% |
| 2.8-3.0 | 46 | 47.8% | 34.5% | +13.3% |
Actual hit rate vs implied probability by odds band. Green = market underprices (opportunity). Red = market overprices.
| Odds Band | Matches | Hit Rate | Implied Prob | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.4-1.6 | 113 | 56.6% | 64.3% | -7.7% |
| 1.6-1.8 | 413 | 59.6% | 57.9% | +1.7% |
| 1.8-2.0 | 408 | 53.9% | 52.3% | +1.6% |
| 2.0-2.2 | 328 | 50.9% | 47.6% | +3.3% |
| 2.2-2.4 | 254 | 37% | 43.4% | -6.4% |
| 2.4-2.6 | 129 | 49.6% | 39.8% | +9.8% |
| 2.6-2.8 | 58 | 24.1% | 36.9% | -12.8% |
| 2.8-3.0 | 22 | 40.9% | 34.4% | +6.5% |
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