1,072 matches | 2021-07-31 → 2026-03-01
Avg Goals
2.78
Over 2.5 Rate
53%
Home Win Rate
45.8%
Draw Rate
24.2%
Actual hit rate vs implied probability by odds band. Green = market underprices (opportunity). Red = market overprices.
| Odds Band | Matches | Hit Rate | Implied Prob | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.2-1.4 | 48 | 70.8% | 73.2% | -2.4% |
| 1.4-1.6 | 125 | 66.4% | 65.9% | +0.5% |
| 1.6-1.8 | 149 | 59.7% | 58.4% | +1.3% |
| 1.8-2.0 | 177 | 55.9% | 52.1% | +3.8% |
| 2.0-2.2 | 219 | 53.4% | 47.7% | +5.7% |
| 2.2-2.4 | 164 | 42.7% | 43.3% | -0.6% |
| 2.4-2.6 | 89 | 46.1% | 40.2% | +5.9% |
| 2.6-2.8 | 56 | 35.7% | 37% | -1.3% |
| 2.8-3.0 | 28 | 25% | 34.5% | -9.5% |
Actual hit rate vs implied probability by odds band. Green = market underprices (opportunity). Red = market overprices.
| Odds Band | Matches | Hit Rate | Implied Prob | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.4-1.6 | 70 | 62.9% | 64.5% | -1.6% |
| 1.6-1.8 | 227 | 57.7% | 57.8% | -0.1% |
| 1.8-2.0 | 236 | 48.3% | 52.1% | -3.8% |
| 2.0-2.2 | 185 | 45.4% | 47.7% | -2.3% |
| 2.2-2.4 | 87 | 41.4% | 43.3% | -1.9% |
| 2.4-2.6 | 64 | 31.2% | 39.9% | -8.7% |
| 2.6-2.8 | 55 | 45.5% | 37% | +8.5% |
| 2.8-3.0 | 42 | 28.6% | 34.4% | -5.8% |
| 3.0-3.2 | 26 | 34.6% | 32.1% | +2.5% |
| 3.2-3.4 | 26 | 38.5% | 30.2% | +8.3% |
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