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© 2026 PicksArena. Data sourced from 57,000+ matches across 51 leagues (2021–2026). For analytical purposes only — not betting advice.

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Major League Soccer

2,373 matches | 2021-07-02 → 2026-03-01

Avg Goals

2.94

Over 2.5 Rate

58%

Home Win Rate

47.1%

Draw Rate

25.5%

Lay Over 2.5 — Odds Band Breakdown

Actual hit rate vs implied probability by odds band. Green = market underprices (opportunity). Red = market overprices.

Odds BandMatchesHit RateImplied ProbGap
1.2-1.42875%72.3%+2.7%
1.4-1.645967.3%65%+2.3%
1.6-1.888160.5%58.3%+2.2%
1.8-2.060755.2%52.4%+2.8%
2.0-2.227545.8%47.9%-2.1%
2.2-2.48347%43.6%+3.4%
2.4-2.62231.8%40.3%-8.5%

Lay Under 2.5 — Odds Band Breakdown

Actual hit rate vs implied probability by odds band. Green = market underprices (opportunity). Red = market overprices.

Odds BandMatchesHit RateImplied ProbGap
1.6-1.87857.7%57.4%+0.3%
1.8-2.024353.5%51.8%+1.7%
2.0-2.256445.4%47.2%-1.8%
2.2-2.451042.2%43.3%-1.1%
2.4-2.640739.6%40%-0.4%
2.6-2.824336.6%37%-0.4%
2.8-3.015032.7%34.5%-1.8%
3.0-3.28027.5%32.2%-4.7%
3.2-3.44320.9%30%-9.1%

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