1,650 matches | 2021-07-24 → 2026-02-28
Avg Goals
2.42
Over 2.5 Rate
44.9%
Home Win Rate
42.6%
Draw Rate
27.2%
Actual hit rate vs implied probability by odds band. Green = market underprices (opportunity). Red = market overprices.
| Odds Band | Matches | Hit Rate | Implied Prob | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.6-1.8 | 81 | 54.3% | 57.7% | -3.4% |
| 1.8-2.0 | 174 | 52.9% | 51.9% | +1% |
| 2.0-2.2 | 340 | 47.6% | 47.3% | +0.3% |
| 2.2-2.4 | 404 | 47.3% | 43.3% | +4% |
| 2.4-2.6 | 308 | 42.2% | 40% | +2.2% |
| 2.6-2.8 | 159 | 29.6% | 37.1% | -7.5% |
| 2.8-3.0 | 78 | 39.7% | 34.5% | +5.2% |
| 3.0-3.2 | 48 | 31.2% | 32.4% | -1.2% |
| 3.2-3.4 | 20 | 25% | 30.4% | -5.4% |
Actual hit rate vs implied probability by odds band. Green = market underprices (opportunity). Red = market overprices.
| Odds Band | Matches | Hit Rate | Implied Prob | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.4-1.6 | 251 | 66.1% | 64.8% | +1.3% |
| 1.6-1.8 | 653 | 57.7% | 58.4% | -0.7% |
| 1.8-2.0 | 416 | 51.4% | 52.6% | -1.2% |
| 2.0-2.2 | 191 | 47.6% | 47.9% | -0.3% |
| 2.2-2.4 | 65 | 40% | 43.7% | -3.7% |
| 2.4-2.6 | 31 | 58.1% | 39.9% | +18.2% |
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