1,568 matches | 2021-08-06 → 2026-02-15
Avg Goals
2.82
Over 2.5 Rate
53.5%
Home Win Rate
43.7%
Draw Rate
24.2%
Actual hit rate vs implied probability by odds band. Green = market underprices (opportunity). Red = market overprices.
| Odds Band | Matches | Hit Rate | Implied Prob | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.2-1.4 | 36 | 72.2% | 75.3% | -3.1% |
| 1.4-1.6 | 41 | 65.9% | 65% | +0.9% |
| 1.6-1.8 | 80 | 65% | 58.1% | +6.9% |
| 1.8-2.0 | 82 | 40.2% | 52.2% | -12% |
| 2.0-2.2 | 84 | 47.6% | 47.4% | +0.2% |
| 2.2-2.4 | 70 | 41.4% | 43.1% | -1.7% |
| 2.4-2.6 | 81 | 45.7% | 39.9% | +5.8% |
| 2.6-2.8 | 61 | 36.1% | 36.8% | -0.7% |
| 2.8-3.0 | 74 | 31.1% | 34.2% | -3.1% |
| 3.0-3.2 | 74 | 33.8% | 32% | +1.8% |
| 3.2-3.4 | 48 | 39.6% | 30% | +9.6% |
| 3.4-3.6 | 21 | 19% | 28.9% | -9.9% |
Actual hit rate vs implied probability by odds band. Green = market underprices (opportunity). Red = market overprices.
| Odds Band | Matches | Hit Rate | Implied Prob | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3.2-3.4 | 131 | 27.5% | 29.9% | -2.4% |
| 3.4-3.6 | 105 | 24.8% | 28.9% | -4.1% |
Actual hit rate vs implied probability by odds band. Green = market underprices (opportunity). Red = market overprices.
| Odds Band | Matches | Hit Rate | Implied Prob | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.0-1.2 | 25 | 92% | 85.3% | +6.7% |
| 1.2-1.4 | 101 | 75.2% | 74.6% | +0.6% |
| 1.4-1.6 | 159 | 67.3% | 65.9% | +1.4% |
| 1.6-1.8 | 141 | 58.2% | 58.5% | -0.3% |
| 1.8-2.0 | 147 | 53.7% | 52% | +1.7% |
| 2.0-2.2 | 137 | 41.6% | 47.3% | -5.7% |
| 2.2-2.4 | 108 | 47.2% | 43% | +4.2% |
| 2.4-2.6 | 112 | 39.3% | 39.6% | -0.3% |
| 2.6-2.8 | 62 | 48.4% | 36.9% | +11.5% |
| 2.8-3.0 | 64 | 29.7% | 34.4% | -4.7% |
| 3.0-3.2 | 49 | 34.7% | 32.1% | +2.6% |
| 3.2-3.4 | 59 | 30.5% | 30.1% | +0.4% |
| 3.4-3.6 | 24 | 20.8% | 28.9% | -8.1% |
Actual hit rate vs implied probability by odds band. Green = market underprices (opportunity). Red = market overprices.
| Odds Band | Matches | Hit Rate | Implied Prob | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.2-1.4 | 51 | 74.5% | 74.1% | +0.4% |
| 1.4-1.6 | 174 | 68.4% | 65.4% | +3% |
| 1.6-1.8 | 339 | 58.7% | 58.1% | +0.6% |
| 1.8-2.0 | 396 | 56.8% | 52.3% | +4.5% |
| 2.0-2.2 | 325 | 44.3% | 47.6% | -3.3% |
| 2.2-2.4 | 162 | 41.4% | 43.5% | -2.1% |
| 2.4-2.6 | 77 | 32.5% | 40.3% | -7.8% |
| 2.6-2.8 | 25 | 52% | 37.1% | +14.9% |
Actual hit rate vs implied probability by odds band. Green = market underprices (opportunity). Red = market overprices.
| Odds Band | Matches | Hit Rate | Implied Prob | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.4-1.6 | 21 | 61.9% | 63.7% | -1.8% |
| 1.6-1.8 | 188 | 59.6% | 57.7% | +1.9% |
| 1.8-2.0 | 330 | 57.3% | 52.1% | +5.2% |
| 2.0-2.2 | 380 | 44.5% | 47.4% | -2.9% |
| 2.2-2.4 | 239 | 41% | 43.4% | -2.4% |
| 2.4-2.6 | 147 | 43.5% | 40% | +3.5% |
| 2.6-2.8 | 92 | 41.3% | 36.8% | +4.5% |
| 2.8-3.0 | 49 | 24.5% | 34.3% | -9.8% |
| 3.0-3.2 | 31 | 22.6% | 32.2% | -9.6% |
| 3.2-3.4 | 27 | 22.2% | 30.1% | -7.9% |
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