1,413 matches | 2021-08-06 → 2026-02-28
Avg Goals
2.64
Over 2.5 Rate
50.9%
Home Win Rate
43.2%
Draw Rate
24.5%
Actual hit rate vs implied probability by odds band. Green = market underprices (opportunity). Red = market overprices.
| Odds Band | Matches | Hit Rate | Implied Prob | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.2-1.4 | 22 | 77.3% | 73.2% | +4.1% |
| 1.4-1.6 | 145 | 73.1% | 65.5% | +7.6% |
| 1.6-1.8 | 187 | 56.7% | 58.2% | -1.5% |
| 1.8-2.0 | 187 | 63.6% | 52.2% | +11.4% |
| 2.0-2.2 | 263 | 47.1% | 47.3% | -0.2% |
| 2.2-2.4 | 260 | 41.9% | 43.3% | -1.4% |
| 2.4-2.6 | 205 | 38% | 40% | -2% |
| 2.6-2.8 | 92 | 43.5% | 37.1% | +6.4% |
| 2.8-3.0 | 33 | 36.4% | 34.5% | +1.9% |
Actual hit rate vs implied probability by odds band. Green = market underprices (opportunity). Red = market overprices.
| Odds Band | Matches | Hit Rate | Implied Prob | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.4-1.6 | 103 | 57.3% | 64.1% | -6.8% |
| 1.6-1.8 | 450 | 60.7% | 58% | +2.7% |
| 1.8-2.0 | 278 | 53.2% | 52.4% | +0.8% |
| 2.0-2.2 | 198 | 39.4% | 47.5% | -8.1% |
| 2.2-2.4 | 117 | 41.9% | 43.2% | -1.3% |
| 2.4-2.6 | 72 | 45.8% | 39.9% | +5.9% |
| 2.6-2.8 | 70 | 32.9% | 37% | -4.1% |
| 2.8-3.0 | 44 | 29.5% | 34.3% | -4.8% |
| 3.0-3.2 | 33 | 24.2% | 32.1% | -7.9% |
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