1,421 matches | 2021-08-06 → 2026-02-16
Avg Goals
2.66
Over 2.5 Rate
51%
Home Win Rate
43.5%
Draw Rate
24.3%
Actual hit rate vs implied probability by odds band. Green = market underprices (opportunity). Red = market overprices.
| Odds Band | Matches | Hit Rate | Implied Prob | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.2-1.4 | 103 | 82.5% | 75.5% | +7% |
| 1.4-1.6 | 72 | 69.4% | 67.1% | +2.3% |
| 1.6-1.8 | 48 | 64.6% | 58.3% | +6.3% |
| 1.8-2.0 | 25 | 44% | 51.4% | -7.4% |
| 2.0-2.2 | 35 | 54.3% | 47.2% | +7.1% |
| 2.2-2.4 | 43 | 51.2% | 43.3% | +7.9% |
| 2.4-2.6 | 50 | 50% | 39.7% | +10.3% |
| 2.6-2.8 | 50 | 30% | 36.8% | -6.8% |
| 2.8-3.0 | 84 | 40.5% | 34.3% | +6.2% |
| 3.0-3.2 | 64 | 29.7% | 32% | -2.3% |
| 3.2-3.4 | 68 | 19.1% | 30.1% | -11% |
| 3.4-3.6 | 28 | 35.7% | 28.9% | +6.8% |
Actual hit rate vs implied probability by odds band. Green = market underprices (opportunity). Red = market overprices.
| Odds Band | Matches | Hit Rate | Implied Prob | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3.0-3.2 | 75 | 28% | 31.7% | -3.7% |
| 3.2-3.4 | 301 | 33.6% | 30.1% | +3.5% |
| 3.4-3.6 | 117 | 35% | 28.9% | +6.1% |
Actual hit rate vs implied probability by odds band. Green = market underprices (opportunity). Red = market overprices.
| Odds Band | Matches | Hit Rate | Implied Prob | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.0-1.2 | 98 | 90.8% | 85% | +5.8% |
| 1.2-1.4 | 114 | 82.5% | 77.1% | +5.4% |
| 1.4-1.6 | 60 | 71.7% | 66% | +5.7% |
| 1.6-1.8 | 67 | 56.7% | 57.6% | -0.9% |
| 1.8-2.0 | 105 | 52.4% | 52% | +0.4% |
| 2.0-2.2 | 139 | 48.2% | 47.1% | +1.1% |
| 2.2-2.4 | 131 | 39.7% | 43.1% | -3.4% |
| 2.4-2.6 | 105 | 43.8% | 39.6% | +4.2% |
| 2.6-2.8 | 89 | 43.8% | 36.8% | +7% |
| 2.8-3.0 | 74 | 29.7% | 34.3% | -4.6% |
| 3.0-3.2 | 49 | 30.6% | 32% | -1.4% |
| 3.2-3.4 | 34 | 23.5% | 30.1% | -6.6% |
Actual hit rate vs implied probability by odds band. Green = market underprices (opportunity). Red = market overprices.
| Odds Band | Matches | Hit Rate | Implied Prob | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.2-1.4 | 22 | 77.3% | 73.2% | +4.1% |
| 1.4-1.6 | 143 | 73.4% | 65.5% | +7.9% |
| 1.6-1.8 | 189 | 56.6% | 58.2% | -1.6% |
| 1.8-2.0 | 186 | 62.9% | 52.2% | +10.7% |
| 2.0-2.2 | 264 | 47.3% | 47.3% | 0% |
| 2.2-2.4 | 262 | 42.4% | 43.2% | -0.8% |
| 2.4-2.6 | 207 | 38.6% | 40% | -1.4% |
| 2.6-2.8 | 93 | 43% | 37.1% | +5.9% |
| 2.8-3.0 | 33 | 36.4% | 34.5% | +1.9% |
Actual hit rate vs implied probability by odds band. Green = market underprices (opportunity). Red = market overprices.
| Odds Band | Matches | Hit Rate | Implied Prob | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.4-1.6 | 104 | 57.7% | 64% | -6.3% |
| 1.6-1.8 | 453 | 60.3% | 58% | +2.3% |
| 1.8-2.0 | 278 | 53.2% | 52.4% | +0.8% |
| 2.0-2.2 | 199 | 39.7% | 47.5% | -7.8% |
| 2.2-2.4 | 117 | 41.9% | 43.2% | -1.3% |
| 2.4-2.6 | 72 | 45.8% | 39.9% | +5.9% |
| 2.6-2.8 | 70 | 32.9% | 37% | -4.1% |
| 2.8-3.0 | 44 | 29.5% | 34.3% | -4.8% |
| 3.0-3.2 | 33 | 24.2% | 32.1% | -7.9% |
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