978 matches | 2021-08-03 → 2026-01-29
Avg Goals
2.79
Over 2.5 Rate
54.4%
Home Win Rate
48.9%
Draw Rate
21.9%
Actual hit rate vs implied probability by odds band. Green = market underprices (opportunity). Red = market overprices.
| Odds Band | Matches | Hit Rate | Implied Prob | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.4-1.6 | 30 | 60% | 65.7% | -5.7% |
| 1.6-1.8 | 62 | 66.1% | 58.2% | +7.9% |
| 1.8-2.0 | 46 | 52.2% | 52% | +0.2% |
| 2.0-2.2 | 46 | 45.7% | 47.2% | -1.5% |
| 2.2-2.4 | 45 | 46.7% | 43.1% | +3.6% |
| 2.4-2.6 | 42 | 52.4% | 39.8% | +12.6% |
| 2.6-2.8 | 46 | 37% | 36.8% | +0.2% |
| 2.8-3.0 | 34 | 26.5% | 34.4% | -7.9% |
| 3.0-3.2 | 23 | 34.8% | 32% | +2.8% |
| 3.2-3.4 | 35 | 37.1% | 30.2% | +6.9% |
Actual hit rate vs implied probability by odds band. Green = market underprices (opportunity). Red = market overprices.
| Odds Band | Matches | Hit Rate | Implied Prob | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3.2-3.4 | 54 | 29.6% | 29.9% | -0.3% |
| 3.4-3.6 | 42 | 26.2% | 28.9% | -2.7% |
Actual hit rate vs implied probability by odds band. Green = market underprices (opportunity). Red = market overprices.
| Odds Band | Matches | Hit Rate | Implied Prob | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.0-1.2 | 32 | 87.5% | 84.8% | +2.7% |
| 1.2-1.4 | 109 | 77.1% | 75.5% | +1.6% |
| 1.4-1.6 | 110 | 68.2% | 65.7% | +2.5% |
| 1.6-1.8 | 117 | 63.2% | 58.5% | +4.7% |
| 1.8-2.0 | 77 | 66.2% | 52.2% | +14% |
| 2.0-2.2 | 68 | 51.5% | 47.1% | +4.4% |
| 2.2-2.4 | 53 | 34% | 43.1% | -9.1% |
| 2.4-2.6 | 55 | 49.1% | 39.8% | +9.3% |
| 2.6-2.8 | 29 | 48.3% | 36.6% | +11.7% |
| 2.8-3.0 | 41 | 34.1% | 34.4% | -0.3% |
| 3.0-3.2 | 37 | 27% | 32% | -5% |
| 3.2-3.4 | 23 | 4.3% | 30% | -25.7% |
Actual hit rate vs implied probability by odds band. Green = market underprices (opportunity). Red = market overprices.
| Odds Band | Matches | Hit Rate | Implied Prob | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.2-1.4 | 21 | 66.7% | 73.4% | -6.7% |
| 1.4-1.6 | 136 | 55.9% | 65.2% | -9.3% |
| 1.6-1.8 | 255 | 59.6% | 58.1% | +1.5% |
| 1.8-2.0 | 232 | 49.6% | 52.3% | -2.7% |
| 2.0-2.2 | 132 | 53% | 47.8% | +5.2% |
| 2.2-2.4 | 90 | 50% | 43.5% | +6.5% |
| 2.4-2.6 | 20 | 45% | 40% | +5% |
Actual hit rate vs implied probability by odds band. Green = market underprices (opportunity). Red = market overprices.
| Odds Band | Matches | Hit Rate | Implied Prob | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.6-1.8 | 83 | 50.6% | 57.4% | -6.8% |
| 1.8-2.0 | 152 | 50% | 52.1% | -2.1% |
| 2.0-2.2 | 193 | 49.2% | 47.6% | +1.6% |
| 2.2-2.4 | 177 | 49.7% | 43.5% | +6.2% |
| 2.4-2.6 | 119 | 31.1% | 39.9% | -8.8% |
| 2.6-2.8 | 64 | 48.4% | 36.9% | +11.5% |
| 2.8-3.0 | 37 | 32.4% | 34.4% | -2% |
| 3.0-3.2 | 32 | 46.9% | 32% | +14.9% |
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