1,444 matches | 2021-08-13 → 2026-02-15
Avg Goals
3.07
Over 2.5 Rate
59.1%
Home Win Rate
44.2%
Draw Rate
23.8%
Actual hit rate vs implied probability by odds band. Green = market underprices (opportunity). Red = market overprices.
| Odds Band | Matches | Hit Rate | Implied Prob | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.0-1.2 | 23 | 91.3% | 85.7% | +5.6% |
| 1.2-1.4 | 63 | 73% | 76.4% | -3.4% |
| 1.4-1.6 | 71 | 64.8% | 66.1% | -1.3% |
| 1.6-1.8 | 65 | 64.6% | 58.3% | +6.3% |
| 1.8-2.0 | 61 | 49.2% | 52% | -2.8% |
| 2.0-2.2 | 54 | 42.6% | 47.3% | -4.7% |
| 2.2-2.4 | 53 | 41.5% | 43.1% | -1.6% |
| 2.4-2.6 | 69 | 37.7% | 39.7% | -2% |
| 2.6-2.8 | 56 | 44.6% | 36.9% | +7.7% |
| 2.8-3.0 | 63 | 34.9% | 34.3% | +0.6% |
| 3.0-3.2 | 56 | 42.9% | 32% | +10.9% |
| 3.2-3.4 | 54 | 24.1% | 30.1% | -6% |
Actual hit rate vs implied probability by odds band. Green = market underprices (opportunity). Red = market overprices.
| Odds Band | Matches | Hit Rate | Implied Prob | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3.2-3.4 | 24 | 33.3% | 29.9% | +3.4% |
| 3.4-3.6 | 38 | 28.9% | 28.9% | 0% |
Actual hit rate vs implied probability by odds band. Green = market underprices (opportunity). Red = market overprices.
| Odds Band | Matches | Hit Rate | Implied Prob | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.0-1.2 | 90 | 88.9% | 86.4% | +2.5% |
| 1.2-1.4 | 145 | 77.2% | 76.2% | +1% |
| 1.4-1.6 | 132 | 61.4% | 66.3% | -4.9% |
| 1.6-1.8 | 123 | 53.7% | 58.2% | -4.5% |
| 1.8-2.0 | 107 | 47.7% | 52.1% | -4.4% |
| 2.0-2.2 | 104 | 45.2% | 47.3% | -2.1% |
| 2.2-2.4 | 90 | 46.7% | 43.1% | +3.6% |
| 2.4-2.6 | 92 | 38% | 39.8% | -1.8% |
| 2.6-2.8 | 70 | 34.3% | 36.7% | -2.4% |
| 2.8-3.0 | 50 | 30% | 34.2% | -4.2% |
| 3.0-3.2 | 55 | 27.3% | 32% | -4.7% |
| 3.2-3.4 | 35 | 42.9% | 30.1% | +12.8% |
Actual hit rate vs implied probability by odds band. Green = market underprices (opportunity). Red = market overprices.
| Odds Band | Matches | Hit Rate | Implied Prob | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.2-1.4 | 135 | 75.6% | 74.8% | +0.8% |
| 1.4-1.6 | 295 | 65.4% | 65.6% | -0.2% |
| 1.6-1.8 | 453 | 60.7% | 58.3% | +2.4% |
| 1.8-2.0 | 325 | 52.9% | 52.5% | +0.4% |
| 2.0-2.2 | 141 | 46.8% | 47.7% | -0.9% |
| 2.2-2.4 | 59 | 33.9% | 43.5% | -9.6% |
Actual hit rate vs implied probability by odds band. Green = market underprices (opportunity). Red = market overprices.
| Odds Band | Matches | Hit Rate | Implied Prob | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.6-1.8 | 54 | 63% | 56.9% | +6.1% |
| 1.8-2.0 | 127 | 52.8% | 51.9% | +0.9% |
| 2.0-2.2 | 277 | 49.5% | 47.3% | +2.2% |
| 2.2-2.4 | 286 | 40.9% | 43.3% | -2.4% |
| 2.4-2.6 | 204 | 38.7% | 39.8% | -1.1% |
| 2.6-2.8 | 121 | 36.4% | 37% | -0.6% |
| 2.8-3.0 | 102 | 29.4% | 34.4% | -5% |
| 3.0-3.2 | 56 | 37.5% | 32.3% | +5.2% |
| 3.2-3.4 | 44 | 36.4% | 30.2% | +6.2% |
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