1,438 matches | 2021-08-13 → 2026-03-01
Avg Goals
3.04
Over 2.5 Rate
59.1%
Home Win Rate
44.3%
Draw Rate
24%
Actual hit rate vs implied probability by odds band. Green = market underprices (opportunity). Red = market overprices.
| Odds Band | Matches | Hit Rate | Implied Prob | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.2-1.4 | 137 | 75.2% | 74.8% | +0.4% |
| 1.4-1.6 | 293 | 65.5% | 65.6% | -0.1% |
| 1.6-1.8 | 453 | 60.9% | 58.2% | +2.7% |
| 1.8-2.0 | 325 | 52.6% | 52.5% | +0.1% |
| 2.0-2.2 | 139 | 46.8% | 47.7% | -0.9% |
| 2.2-2.4 | 59 | 33.9% | 43.5% | -9.6% |
Actual hit rate vs implied probability by odds band. Green = market underprices (opportunity). Red = market overprices.
| Odds Band | Matches | Hit Rate | Implied Prob | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.6-1.8 | 55 | 63.6% | 56.9% | +6.7% |
| 1.8-2.0 | 125 | 52.8% | 51.9% | +0.9% |
| 2.0-2.2 | 278 | 49.3% | 47.3% | +2% |
| 2.2-2.4 | 285 | 41.1% | 43.3% | -2.2% |
| 2.4-2.6 | 204 | 39.2% | 39.8% | -0.6% |
| 2.6-2.8 | 120 | 35.8% | 36.9% | -1.1% |
| 2.8-3.0 | 103 | 30.1% | 34.4% | -4.3% |
| 3.0-3.2 | 56 | 37.5% | 32.3% | +5.2% |
| 3.2-3.4 | 51 | 35.3% | 30.2% | +5.1% |
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