1,125 matches | 2021-07-01 → 2025-11-30
Avg Goals
3.11
Over 2.5 Rate
61.2%
Home Win Rate
46.3%
Draw Rate
22.2%
Actual hit rate vs implied probability by odds band. Green = market underprices (opportunity). Red = market overprices.
| Odds Band | Matches | Hit Rate | Implied Prob | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.4-1.6 | 34 | 67.6% | 65.2% | +2.4% |
| 1.6-1.8 | 41 | 51.2% | 58.2% | -7% |
| 1.8-2.0 | 45 | 44.4% | 52% | -7.6% |
| 2.0-2.2 | 54 | 53.7% | 47.4% | +6.3% |
| 2.2-2.4 | 48 | 54.2% | 43.1% | +11.1% |
| 2.4-2.6 | 59 | 40.7% | 39.8% | +0.9% |
| 2.6-2.8 | 46 | 32.6% | 36.8% | -4.2% |
| 2.8-3.0 | 47 | 46.8% | 34.2% | +12.6% |
| 3.0-3.2 | 60 | 45% | 31.9% | +13.1% |
| 3.2-3.4 | 48 | 25% | 30.2% | -5.2% |
| 3.4-3.6 | 22 | 45.5% | 28.9% | +16.6% |
Actual hit rate vs implied probability by odds band. Green = market underprices (opportunity). Red = market overprices.
| Odds Band | Matches | Hit Rate | Implied Prob | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3.2-3.4 | 22 | 13.6% | 29.7% | -16.1% |
| 3.4-3.6 | 25 | 32% | 28.9% | +3.1% |
Actual hit rate vs implied probability by odds band. Green = market underprices (opportunity). Red = market overprices.
| Odds Band | Matches | Hit Rate | Implied Prob | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.0-1.2 | 23 | 91.3% | 85.5% | +5.8% |
| 1.2-1.4 | 110 | 72.7% | 75% | -2.3% |
| 1.4-1.6 | 112 | 67.9% | 66% | +1.9% |
| 1.6-1.8 | 125 | 52% | 58.4% | -6.4% |
| 1.8-2.0 | 115 | 54.8% | 52.2% | +2.6% |
| 2.0-2.2 | 101 | 46.5% | 47.2% | -0.7% |
| 2.2-2.4 | 99 | 43.4% | 43.1% | +0.3% |
| 2.4-2.6 | 73 | 38.4% | 39.9% | -1.5% |
| 2.6-2.8 | 53 | 26.4% | 36.6% | -10.2% |
| 2.8-3.0 | 48 | 37.5% | 34.4% | +3.1% |
| 3.0-3.2 | 37 | 32.4% | 32.2% | +0.2% |
| 3.2-3.4 | 26 | 34.6% | 29.9% | +4.7% |
Actual hit rate vs implied probability by odds band. Green = market underprices (opportunity). Red = market overprices.
| Odds Band | Matches | Hit Rate | Implied Prob | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.2-1.4 | 73 | 82.2% | 73.5% | +8.7% |
| 1.4-1.6 | 282 | 68.4% | 65.7% | +2.7% |
| 1.6-1.8 | 364 | 61.5% | 58.5% | +3% |
| 1.8-2.0 | 239 | 54.4% | 52.5% | +1.9% |
| 2.0-2.2 | 109 | 47.7% | 47.8% | -0.1% |
| 2.2-2.4 | 38 | 63.2% | 43.7% | +19.5% |
Actual hit rate vs implied probability by odds band. Green = market underprices (opportunity). Red = market overprices.
| Odds Band | Matches | Hit Rate | Implied Prob | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.6-1.8 | 33 | 39.4% | 57.4% | -18% |
| 1.8-2.0 | 104 | 49% | 51.8% | -2.8% |
| 2.0-2.2 | 208 | 47.6% | 47.1% | +0.5% |
| 2.2-2.4 | 206 | 39.8% | 43.3% | -3.5% |
| 2.4-2.6 | 168 | 38.7% | 39.8% | -1.1% |
| 2.6-2.8 | 126 | 31% | 37% | -6% |
| 2.8-3.0 | 92 | 31.5% | 34.5% | -3% |
| 3.0-3.2 | 60 | 33.3% | 32.1% | +1.2% |
| 3.2-3.4 | 43 | 32.6% | 30.2% | +2.4% |
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