419 matches | 2021-11-17 → 2026-02-12
Avg Goals
3.07
Over 2.5 Rate
59.2%
Home Win Rate
30.8%
Draw Rate
2.1%
Actual hit rate vs implied probability by odds band. Green = market underprices (opportunity). Red = market overprices.
| Odds Band | Matches | Hit Rate | Implied Prob | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.0-1.2 | 33 | 81.8% | 87.4% | -5.6% |
| 1.2-1.4 | 20 | 95% | 76.8% | +18.2% |
| 1.4-1.6 | 28 | 78.6% | 64.8% | +13.8% |
| 1.6-1.8 | 54 | 68.5% | 58% | +10.5% |
| 1.8-2.0 | 55 | 56.4% | 52.2% | +4.2% |
| 2.0-2.2 | 61 | 60.7% | 47.3% | +13.4% |
| 2.2-2.4 | 61 | 54.1% | 43.4% | +10.7% |
| 2.4-2.6 | 67 | 40.3% | 40.1% | +0.2% |
| 2.6-2.8 | 29 | 37.9% | 36.8% | +1.1% |
Actual hit rate vs implied probability by odds band. Green = market underprices (opportunity). Red = market overprices.
| Odds Band | Matches | Hit Rate | Implied Prob | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.4-1.6 | 49 | 59.2% | 64.2% | -5% |
| 1.6-1.8 | 117 | 53% | 58.3% | -5.3% |
| 1.8-2.0 | 70 | 42.9% | 52.5% | -9.6% |
| 2.0-2.2 | 48 | 43.8% | 47.5% | -3.7% |
| 2.2-2.4 | 30 | 30% | 43.5% | -13.5% |
| 2.4-2.6 | 34 | 23.5% | 40% | -16.5% |
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