1,135 matches | 2021-07-03 → 2025-11-09
Avg Goals
2.79
Over 2.5 Rate
53.3%
Home Win Rate
44.1%
Draw Rate
22.2%
Actual hit rate vs implied probability by odds band. Green = market underprices (opportunity). Red = market overprices.
| Odds Band | Matches | Hit Rate | Implied Prob | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.4-1.6 | 35 | 80% | 65.4% | +14.6% |
| 1.6-1.8 | 48 | 56.2% | 58% | -1.8% |
| 1.8-2.0 | 52 | 42.3% | 51.8% | -9.5% |
| 2.0-2.2 | 66 | 53% | 47.2% | +5.8% |
| 2.2-2.4 | 66 | 53% | 43.2% | +9.8% |
| 2.4-2.6 | 66 | 37.9% | 39.8% | -1.9% |
| 2.6-2.8 | 60 | 41.7% | 36.9% | +4.8% |
| 2.8-3.0 | 52 | 50% | 34.1% | +15.9% |
| 3.0-3.2 | 56 | 37.5% | 32% | +5.5% |
| 3.2-3.4 | 36 | 38.9% | 30.1% | +8.8% |
| 3.4-3.6 | 25 | 32% | 28.9% | +3.1% |
Actual hit rate vs implied probability by odds band. Green = market underprices (opportunity). Red = market overprices.
| Odds Band | Matches | Hit Rate | Implied Prob | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3.2-3.4 | 66 | 28.8% | 30% | -1.2% |
| 3.4-3.6 | 50 | 24% | 29% | -5% |
Actual hit rate vs implied probability by odds band. Green = market underprices (opportunity). Red = market overprices.
| Odds Band | Matches | Hit Rate | Implied Prob | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.2-1.4 | 77 | 81.8% | 74.9% | +6.9% |
| 1.4-1.6 | 105 | 63.8% | 65.9% | -2.1% |
| 1.6-1.8 | 140 | 58.6% | 57.9% | +0.7% |
| 1.8-2.0 | 95 | 60% | 52.1% | +7.9% |
| 2.0-2.2 | 93 | 40.9% | 47.4% | -6.5% |
| 2.2-2.4 | 103 | 35.9% | 43.1% | -7.2% |
| 2.4-2.6 | 64 | 35.9% | 39.9% | -4% |
| 2.6-2.8 | 57 | 35.1% | 36.9% | -1.8% |
| 2.8-3.0 | 61 | 29.5% | 34.1% | -4.6% |
| 3.0-3.2 | 42 | 23.8% | 32.1% | -8.3% |
| 3.2-3.4 | 44 | 29.5% | 30.2% | -0.7% |
Actual hit rate vs implied probability by odds band. Green = market underprices (opportunity). Red = market overprices.
| Odds Band | Matches | Hit Rate | Implied Prob | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.2-1.4 | 20 | 95% | 73.5% | +21.5% |
| 1.4-1.6 | 131 | 68.7% | 65.2% | +3.5% |
| 1.6-1.8 | 331 | 56.8% | 58.2% | -1.4% |
| 1.8-2.0 | 308 | 52.3% | 52.4% | -0.1% |
| 2.0-2.2 | 178 | 44.4% | 47.6% | -3.2% |
| 2.2-2.4 | 109 | 45.9% | 43.4% | +2.5% |
| 2.4-2.6 | 38 | 31.6% | 40.1% | -8.5% |
Actual hit rate vs implied probability by odds band. Green = market underprices (opportunity). Red = market overprices.
| Odds Band | Matches | Hit Rate | Implied Prob | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.6-1.8 | 119 | 58.8% | 57.6% | +1.2% |
| 1.8-2.0 | 179 | 57% | 52.2% | +4.8% |
| 2.0-2.2 | 284 | 48.2% | 47.2% | +1% |
| 2.2-2.4 | 219 | 47.9% | 43.3% | +4.6% |
| 2.4-2.6 | 136 | 35.3% | 39.8% | -4.5% |
| 2.6-2.8 | 76 | 40.8% | 37.1% | +3.7% |
| 2.8-3.0 | 54 | 35.2% | 34.4% | +0.8% |
| 3.0-3.2 | 22 | 27.3% | 32.3% | -5% |
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