1,422 matches | 2021-07-23 → 2026-02-15
Avg Goals
2.98
Over 2.5 Rate
59.2%
Home Win Rate
43%
Draw Rate
25.6%
Actual hit rate vs implied probability by odds band. Green = market underprices (opportunity). Red = market overprices.
| Odds Band | Matches | Hit Rate | Implied Prob | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.6-1.8 | 24 | 50% | 58.1% | -8.1% |
| 1.8-2.0 | 41 | 48.8% | 51.8% | -3% |
| 2.0-2.2 | 77 | 54.5% | 47.3% | +7.2% |
| 2.2-2.4 | 92 | 42.4% | 43.1% | -0.7% |
| 2.4-2.6 | 101 | 40.6% | 39.6% | +1% |
| 2.6-2.8 | 105 | 36.2% | 36.7% | -0.5% |
| 2.8-3.0 | 109 | 36.7% | 34.1% | +2.6% |
| 3.0-3.2 | 96 | 39.6% | 32% | +7.6% |
| 3.2-3.4 | 85 | 28.2% | 30.1% | -1.9% |
| 3.4-3.6 | 39 | 28.2% | 28.9% | -0.7% |
Actual hit rate vs implied probability by odds band. Green = market underprices (opportunity). Red = market overprices.
| Odds Band | Matches | Hit Rate | Implied Prob | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3.2-3.4 | 23 | 21.7% | 29.7% | -8% |
| 3.4-3.6 | 42 | 23.8% | 28.9% | -5.1% |
Actual hit rate vs implied probability by odds band. Green = market underprices (opportunity). Red = market overprices.
| Odds Band | Matches | Hit Rate | Implied Prob | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.2-1.4 | 26 | 76.9% | 73.9% | +3% |
| 1.4-1.6 | 77 | 66.2% | 65.1% | +1.1% |
| 1.6-1.8 | 151 | 58.9% | 58% | +0.9% |
| 1.8-2.0 | 173 | 48% | 51.9% | -3.9% |
| 2.0-2.2 | 172 | 43% | 47.2% | -4.2% |
| 2.2-2.4 | 191 | 44.5% | 43.2% | +1.3% |
| 2.4-2.6 | 128 | 46.9% | 39.8% | +7.1% |
| 2.6-2.8 | 116 | 31.9% | 36.9% | -5% |
| 2.8-3.0 | 83 | 32.5% | 34.2% | -1.7% |
| 3.0-3.2 | 63 | 38.1% | 32.1% | +6% |
| 3.2-3.4 | 55 | 29.1% | 30.1% | -1% |
| 3.4-3.6 | 25 | 40% | 29% | +11% |
Actual hit rate vs implied probability by odds band. Green = market underprices (opportunity). Red = market overprices.
| Odds Band | Matches | Hit Rate | Implied Prob | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.4-1.6 | 248 | 65.7% | 65.1% | +0.6% |
| 1.6-1.8 | 672 | 59.4% | 58.3% | +1.1% |
| 1.8-2.0 | 325 | 56.3% | 52.5% | +3.8% |
| 2.0-2.2 | 121 | 57% | 47.8% | +9.2% |
| 2.2-2.4 | 34 | 35.3% | 43.7% | -8.4% |
Actual hit rate vs implied probability by odds band. Green = market underprices (opportunity). Red = market overprices.
| Odds Band | Matches | Hit Rate | Implied Prob | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.6-1.8 | 24 | 54.2% | 56.5% | -2.3% |
| 1.8-2.0 | 111 | 48.6% | 51.6% | -3% |
| 2.0-2.2 | 284 | 44.7% | 47.1% | -2.4% |
| 2.2-2.4 | 359 | 44.6% | 43.2% | +1.4% |
| 2.4-2.6 | 300 | 36.7% | 39.9% | -3.2% |
| 2.6-2.8 | 173 | 37% | 37% | 0% |
| 2.8-3.0 | 71 | 35.2% | 34.4% | +0.8% |
| 3.0-3.2 | 44 | 36.4% | 32.3% | +4.1% |
| 3.2-3.4 | 33 | 12.1% | 30.4% | -18.3% |
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