{
 "schema_version": 1,
 "note": "Append-only. Real picks only. Never delete or edit a pick after created_at except to settle it with scripts/settle.py.",
 "picks": [
  {
   "id": "pa-20261023-001",
   "section": "picks",
   "type": "single",
   "kickoff": "2026-10-24T16:30:00Z",
   "competition": "Premier League",
   "match": "Chelsea v Tottenham",
   "market": "Match result",
   "selection": "Tottenham",
   "market_key": "away",
   "odds_taken": 4.5,
   "bookie": "bet365",
   "odds_taken_at": "2026-10-23T13:40:23Z",
   "stake_units": 1,
   "title": "Spurs at a big price in the London derby",
   "venue": "Stamford Bridge, London",
   "rules_topic": "acca-postponed-match",
   "reason": "Our view is that Spurs at 7/2 is a fair price or a touch better. Chelsea have scored 14 in their last six but conceded 11 and allowed 5.8 shots on target a game. Spurs have lost only two of their last six and give up 3.0 shots on target a game. The sharp market makes Spurs about a 22% chance and our model about 27%, so the price is on our side.",
   "analysis": [
    "Chelsea are the favourites and that's right, but their games have been open: 14 scored and 11 conceded in the last six, with both teams scoring in four of them.",
    "Spurs have been hard to beat. Three draws in their last six, only two defeats, and just 3.0 shots on target allowed per game.",
    "At 7/2 the price implies about 22%. Our goals model makes Spurs about 27%, and the sharpest bookmaker's price without its margin is about 22.5%, so 7/2 is slightly above what the market itself thinks is fair."
   ],
   "numbers": [
    {
     "label": "Chelsea goals against, last 6",
     "value": "11"
    },
    {
     "label": "Spurs shots on target allowed per game",
     "value": "3.0"
    },
    {
     "label": "Our chance for Spurs",
     "value": "27%"
    }
   ],
   "form": [
    {
     "team": "Chelsea",
     "last5": "LDLWW"
    },
    {
     "team": "Tottenham",
     "last5": "DDLDW"
    }
   ],
   "risks": "Chelsea are favourites for a reason and the most likely single result is a home win. An early Chelsea goal would change the game. The pick stands as logged either way.",
   "created_at": "2026-10-23T13:44:32Z",
   "result": "pending",
   "pl_units": null,
   "clv_pct": null,
   "settled_at": null,
   "closing_odds": null,
   "closing_source": null,
   "product": "value",
   "corrections": [
    {
     "at": "2026-10-23T14:07:41Z",
     "type": "write-up",
     "note": "Labelled as a Value pick (product sections introduced 23 Oct). Selection, price, bookie, stake and logged time unchanged.",
     "pick_terms_changed": false
    }
   ]
  },
  {
   "id": "pa-20261023-002",
   "section": "picks",
   "type": "single",
   "kickoff": "2026-10-25T14:00:00Z",
   "competition": "Premier League",
   "match": "Liverpool v Brighton",
   "market": "Match result",
   "selection": "Brighton",
   "market_key": "away",
   "odds_taken": 3.4,
   "bookie": "bet365",
   "odds_taken_at": "2026-10-23T13:40:23Z",
   "stake_units": 1,
   "title": "Brighton's form is worth a price at Anfield",
   "venue": "Anfield, Liverpool",
   "rules_topic": "acca-postponed-match",
   "reason": "Our pick is Brighton at 12/5. They've won four of their last five, scoring 15 and conceding none in those wins, and average 6.0 shots on target a game. Liverpool have been solid but not free-scoring: 7 goals in their last six. The market makes Brighton about a 30% chance; we make it higher.",
   "analysis": [
    "Brighton have won four league games in a row (5-0, 3-0, 2-0, 5-0) after a 1-1 draw, with 19 goals in their last six. Only Man City have taken more points from the last five rounds.",
    "Liverpool have kept things tight, 6 conceded in six, but have scored only 7 in that run and lost 3-0 two games ago.",
    "At 12/5 the price implies about 29%. The sharp market without its margin is about 30% and our model is well above that. Anfield is a hard place to win, so this is a price call, not a prediction that Brighton are favourites."
   ],
   "numbers": [
    {
     "label": "Brighton goals, last 6",
     "value": "19"
    },
    {
     "label": "Brighton shots on target per game",
     "value": "6.0"
    },
    {
     "label": "Liverpool goals, last 6",
     "value": "7"
    }
   ],
   "form": [
    {
     "team": "Liverpool",
     "last5": "WDWLW"
    },
    {
     "team": "Brighton",
     "last5": "DWWWW"
    }
   ],
   "risks": "Liverpool at home are still the more likely winners, and a hot streak can end any week.",
   "created_at": "2026-10-23T13:44:32Z",
   "result": "pending",
   "pl_units": null,
   "clv_pct": null,
   "settled_at": null,
   "closing_odds": null,
   "closing_source": null,
   "product": "value",
   "corrections": [
    {
     "at": "2026-10-23T14:07:41Z",
     "type": "write-up",
     "note": "Labelled as a Value pick (product sections introduced 23 Oct). Selection, price, bookie, stake and logged time unchanged.",
     "pick_terms_changed": false
    },
    {
     "at": "2026-10-23T14:07:41Z",
     "type": "write-up",
     "note": "Removed 'the best form in the league' (Man City have more points from the last five rounds, 15 to Brighton's 13). Old text: Brighton arrive in the best form in the league: four straight wins (5-0, 3-0, 2-0, 5-0) after a draw, with 19 goals in their last six games.",
     "pick_terms_changed": false
    },
    {
     "at": "2026-10-23T14:07:41Z",
     "type": "write-up",
     "note": "Removed unverified claim that Brighton's run 'came partly against weaker sides'. Old text: Liverpool at home are still the more likely winners. Brighton's run came partly against weaker sides and a hot streak can end any week.",
     "pick_terms_changed": false
    }
   ]
  },
  {
   "id": "pa-20261023-003",
   "section": "picks",
   "type": "single",
   "kickoff": "2026-10-24T14:00:00Z",
   "competition": "Premier League",
   "match": "Arsenal v Everton",
   "market": "Match result",
   "selection": "Draw",
   "market_key": "draw",
   "odds_taken": 4.6,
   "bookie": "bet365",
   "odds_taken_at": "2026-10-23T13:40:23Z",
   "stake_units": 1,
   "title": "Everton have made a habit of draws",
   "venue": "Emirates Stadium, London",
   "rules_topic": "acca-postponed-match",
   "reason": "Our view is the draw at 18/5. Everton have drawn four of their last six and lost only one. Arsenal win a lot but by small margins: 8 goals in six games, all five wins by one or two goals. The sharp market puts the draw at about 22%; at 18/5 the price is a little better than that.",
   "analysis": [
    "Arsenal have won five of six, but they have scored only 8 in that run. Their games are not running away from anyone.",
    "Everton have four draws this season, joint-most in the league, and their last five read 2-2, 0-0, 1-0, 2-2, 0-2.",
    "18/5 implies about 22%. The sharp market without margin is about 22% and our model about 24%, so this is a small edge on paper, not a big one."
   ],
   "numbers": [
    {
     "label": "Everton draws, last 6",
     "value": "4"
    },
    {
     "label": "Arsenal goals, last 6",
     "value": "8"
    },
    {
     "label": "Our chance of a draw",
     "value": "24%"
    }
   ],
   "form": [
    {
     "team": "Arsenal",
     "last5": "WWLWW"
    },
    {
     "team": "Everton",
     "last5": "DDWDL"
    }
   ],
   "risks": "Arsenal at home are clear favourites and one goal can be enough for them. Draws are the hardest result to call.",
   "created_at": "2026-10-23T13:44:32Z",
   "result": "pending",
   "pl_units": null,
   "clv_pct": null,
   "settled_at": null,
   "closing_odds": null,
   "closing_source": null,
   "product": "value",
   "corrections": [
    {
     "at": "2026-10-23T14:07:41Z",
     "type": "write-up",
     "note": "Labelled as a Value pick (product sections introduced 23 Oct). Selection, price, bookie, stake and logged time unchanged.",
     "pick_terms_changed": false
    },
    {
     "at": "2026-10-23T14:07:41Z",
     "type": "write-up",
     "note": "Replaced 'the league's draw specialists' with the checked figure (four draws, joint-most with Brentford, Leeds and Man United). Old text: Everton are the league's draw specialists right now: 2-2, 0-0, 1-0, 2-2, 0-2 in their last five, with four draws in their last six.",
     "pick_terms_changed": false
    }
   ]
  },
  {
   "id": "pa-20261023-004",
   "section": "picks",
   "type": "single",
   "kickoff": "2026-10-24T14:00:00Z",
   "competition": "Premier League",
   "match": "Coventry v Fulham",
   "market": "Match result",
   "selection": "Draw",
   "market_key": "draw",
   "odds_taken": 3.75,
   "bookie": "betfair-sportsbook",
   "odds_taken_at": "2026-10-23T13:40:23Z",
   "stake_units": 1,
   "title": "Two evenly matched sides who don't score many",
   "venue": "Coventry Building Society Arena, Coventry",
   "rules_topic": "acca-postponed-match",
   "reason": "Our pick is the draw at 11/4. Coventry have scored 6 in their last six and Fulham 5. Our model has this as close to a coin flip between the sides, and a draw at about 27%. The sharp market agrees at about 27%, and 11/4 is the best UK price we found.",
   "analysis": [
    "Neither side is scoring freely: Coventry 6 goals in six, Fulham 5 in six. Fulham have drawn two of their last five.",
    "Our model makes Coventry 38%, Fulham 35% and the draw 27%. With the sides that close, a low-scoring draw is a live result.",
    "11/4 implies about 27%. That's in line with our number and slightly above the sharp market's fair price, so it's only worth it at the best price."
   ],
   "numbers": [
    {
     "label": "Coventry goals, last 6",
     "value": "6"
    },
    {
     "label": "Fulham goals, last 6",
     "value": "5"
    },
    {
     "label": "Our chance of a draw",
     "value": "27%"
    }
   ],
   "form": [
    {
     "team": "Coventry",
     "last5": "LLWWL"
    },
    {
     "team": "Fulham",
     "last5": "LDDLW"
    }
   ],
   "risks": "Coventry have conceded 11 in six, including a 5-0 defeat, so a goal-filled game is possible. The best price may not last; at shorter odds this pick isn't worth it.",
   "created_at": "2026-10-23T13:44:32Z",
   "result": "pending",
   "pl_units": null,
   "clv_pct": null,
   "settled_at": null,
   "closing_odds": null,
   "closing_source": null,
   "product": "value",
   "corrections": [
    {
     "at": "2026-10-23T14:07:41Z",
     "type": "write-up",
     "note": "Labelled as a Value pick (product sections introduced 23 Oct). Selection, price, bookie, stake and logged time unchanged.",
     "pick_terms_changed": false
    }
   ]
  },
  {
   "id": "pa-20261023-005",
   "section": "picks",
   "type": "acca",
   "kickoff": "2026-10-24T14:00:00Z",
   "competition": "Premier League",
   "match": "Acca of the Weekend: 4 legs",
   "market": "Goals",
   "selection": "4-fold",
   "odds_taken": 19.4,
   "bookie": "bet365",
   "odds_taken_at": "2026-10-23T13:40:23Z",
   "stake_units": 0.5,
   "title": "Acca of the Weekend: goals lines across four games",
   "rules_topic": "acca-postponed-match",
   "reason": "Four goals legs, each priced at or above our model's fair price at Bet365. Arsenal v Everton under 2.5: Arsenal have scored 8 in six and Everton draw a lot. Coventry v Fulham under 2.5: 11 goals between them in their last six combined. Hull v Brentford under 2.5: Hull have scored 6 in six. Sunderland v Leeds over 2.5: Sunderland have conceded 12 in six. Most accas lose. Our model gives all four landing about a 7% chance, and the sharp market rates it lower, nearer 4%.",
   "analysis": [
    "Arsenal v Everton, under 2.5 at evens: Arsenal win narrowly (8 goals in six) and Everton have four draws in six.",
    "Coventry v Fulham, under 2.5 at 11/10: Coventry 6 and Fulham 5 goals scored in their last six.",
    "Hull v Brentford, under 2.5 at 6/5: Hull have scored 6 in six and drawn three of their last five.",
    "Sunderland v Leeds, over 2.5 at 11/10: Sunderland have conceded 12 in six, including a 3-5.",
    "Most accas lose. Our model gives all four legs landing about a 7% chance. The sharp market's prices imply about 4%. Small stakes only."
   ],
   "numbers": [
    {
     "label": "Combined odds (decimal)",
     "value": "19.40"
    },
    {
     "label": "Our chance all 4 land",
     "value": "7%"
    },
    {
     "label": "Market's chance all 4 land",
     "value": "4%"
    }
   ],
   "risks": "One early goal can wreck an under 2.5 leg, and all four legs have to land. If a match is postponed, most bookies settle the acca on the remaining legs; check the rules box.",
   "legs": [
    {
     "match": "Arsenal v Everton",
     "market": "Under 2.5 goals",
     "selection": "Under 2.5",
     "market_key": "under25",
     "odds": 2,
     "kickoff": "2026-10-24T14:00:00Z",
     "competition": "Premier League"
    },
    {
     "match": "Coventry v Fulham",
     "market": "Under 2.5 goals",
     "selection": "Under 2.5",
     "market_key": "under25",
     "odds": 2.1,
     "kickoff": "2026-10-24T14:00:00Z",
     "competition": "Premier League"
    },
    {
     "match": "Hull v Brentford",
     "market": "Under 2.5 goals",
     "selection": "Under 2.5",
     "market_key": "under25",
     "odds": 2.2,
     "kickoff": "2026-10-25T14:00:00Z",
     "competition": "Premier League"
    },
    {
     "match": "Sunderland v Leeds",
     "market": "Over 2.5 goals",
     "selection": "Over 2.5",
     "market_key": "over25",
     "odds": 2.1,
     "kickoff": "2026-10-25T16:30:00Z",
     "competition": "Premier League"
    }
   ],
   "created_at": "2026-10-23T13:44:32Z",
   "result": "pending",
   "pl_units": null,
   "clv_pct": null,
   "settled_at": null,
   "closing_odds": null,
   "closing_source": null,
   "product": "acca"
  }
 ]
}